Only One Third (33%) of Ontarians See PC Leader Hudak's "Million Jobs" Plan as Credible, Majority (61%) Oppose Pledge to Cut 100,000 Public Sector Jobs and Tories (29%) Have No Edge over Liberals (28%), NDP (26%) on Economic Policy
Despite these rejections, the Ipsos Reid poll released yesterday show that, fueled by the desire for change (72%) among the electorate, the popular vote at this stage of the campaign has the Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak receiving 35% support among decided voters (down 4 points since last week), while the Liberals under Premier Kathleen Wynne would receive 31% support (up 1 point). The New Democratic Party, led by Andrea Horwath, would receive 28% of the vote (up 4 points), while 6% would vote for some other party, including the Green Party led by Mike Schreiner (down 1 point). Two in ten (19%) Ontarians remain undecided (down 1 point).
Further, among the 47% of Ontarians who say that `nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote', the PCs (41%, +6) remain well ahead of the Liberals (30%, -1) and the NDP (26%, -2), while support for other parties drops down to 3% (-3). Tory voters are the most committed to show up, while the NDP and Liberals might struggle to get out their vote.
Hudak's Job Creation Plan not seen as Credible...
PC Leader Tim Hudak has made it a central part of his campaign that he and his new government will create 1,000,000 (one million) jobs in the province of Ontario over the next eight years. Reflecting on this statement, just one in three (33%) Ontarians see it as credible (5% very/28% somewhat), while the vast majority (67%) of Ontarians do not see it as credible (31% not at all/36% not very).
In fact, three in ten (29%) Conservative voters don't believe the plan is credible (71% do believe it is credible), while most supporters of the NDP (86%), Liberal (78%) and other parties (87%) do not believe the plan is credible.
The plan has the most resonance in the 905 where 41% think it is a credible plan, but still 59% do not, with higher proportions in the East (62%), Central (65%), 416 (69%), Southwest (71%) and North (78%) believing the plan is not credible.
Majority (61%) Opposes Pledge to Cut 100,000 Public Sector Jobs...
PC Leader Tim Hudak has pledged to reduce Ontario government workforce by 100,000 jobs, a plan that will affect all workers including teachers and their assistants, but not nurses, doctors and police, and will bring employment levels within government back to 2009 levels. Thinking about this plan, four in ten (39%) `support' (14% very much/25% somewhat) this course of action, while six in ten (61%) `oppose' (37% very much/24% somewhat) the public-sector job cuts.
- Most PC voters support the job cuts (80% support vs. 20% oppose), but supporters of the Liberals (18% support vs. 82% oppose), NPD (20% support vs. 80% oppose) or another party (39% support vs. 61% oppose) are against the idea.
- A majority of women (64%), men (59%), those aged 35 to 54 (64%), 18-34 (60%) and 55+ (58%) oppose the idea of cutting 100,000 civil servants from the Ontario Government payroll, as do a majority of those living in every part of the province: the North (70% oppose), Central (68% oppose) Southwest (64% oppose), the 416 (62% oppose), East (57% oppose), and the 905 (55% oppose).
Tories have Lost Economic Advantage...
Typically in Canadian and Ontario politics, the Tories have had the edge over other parties as being seen as most credible on the economy, and being the best economic managers. However, Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservatives appear to have lost this advantage.
When asked which Leader and Party seems to have the best platform of ideas that can help the Ontario economy, 29% of Ontarians believe it is Tim Hudak and the PCs, 28% say it is Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, 26% believe it is Andrea Horwath and the NDP, and 18% think it's some other party or leader.
- Most supporters of each party believe that their respective party and leader is the best on the economy: PC supporters (84% believe the PCs have the best economic ideas), Liberal supporters (85% believe the Liberals have the best economic ideas), and NDP supporters (80% believe the NDP have the best economic ideas).
- Those aged 55+ are more likely to believe that the Tories (39%) have the edge over the Liberals (27%) and NDP (20%) on economic matters. In contrast, those aged 18-34 believe the NDP (32%) and Liberals (32%) trump the PCs (20%) on economic matters.
Despite Unpopular Economic Policy, Wind Still at Hudak's Back...
Despite a jobs platform that few find credible and most oppose, the winds of change are still decidedly in Tim Hudak's favour, as 72% believe it is time for a new government to take over at Queen's Park. Further, PC voters are the most galvanized to turnout on Election Day and vote, giving the Tories a ballot-box bonus, meaning that Tim Hudak and the PCs are still in the driver's seat to win a plurality of the popular vote.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between May 20 to 21, 2014, on behalf of CTV and CP24. For this survey, a sample of 800 Ontarians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-3.9 percentage points had all adults in Ontario been surveyed.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.
About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.
With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,712,4 million (2 274 M$) in 2013.
Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.
