Ontarians Split on Success of "common sense revolution"

ONTARIANS SPLIT ON SUCCESS OF "COMMON SENSE REVOLUTION" - 48% SAY SUCCESS, 46% SAY FAILURE

MAJORITY (53%) SAY, IF ELECTED, HARRIS GOVERNMENT SHOULD "FORGET ABOUT TAX CUTS AND FUND HEALTHCARE AND EDUCATION - ONLY ONE IN FOUR (23%) SAY FOLLOW THROUGH WITH TAX CUT, WHILE REMAINING ONE IN FIVE (22%) SAY PUT TAX CUT CASH TOWARD GOVERNMENT DEFICIT AND DEBT

THE MAJORITY (54%) OF ONTARIANS BELIEVE MIKE HARRIS WILL WIN THE LEADER DEBATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT

This Angus Reid Group/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone from May 10th to May 14th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 1,000 Ontarian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to the 1996 Census data. It has also been weighted according to past voting according to the 1995 election.

With a provincial sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are accurate to within +3.1 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontarian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

On the eve of the Leader's Debate, Ontarians are evenly split on whether on not the "Common Sense Revolution" of the Harris government was a success (48%) or a failure (46%). As far as the majority (54%) of Ontarians are concerned, if re-elected, the Harris PCs should forget about the tax cuts and direct that money toward healthcare and education. Some (22%) suggest the money from the proposed tax cuts should be used to pay down the deficit/debt, while only one in four (23%) say the Harris government should follow through with its proposed tax cuts.

A majority (54%) of Ontarians believes Mike Harris will win the leader's debate on Tuesday night.

These are the highlights of a second release on the findings from the first Ontario 1999 Angus Reid Group/CFRB/Globe and Mail election campaign poll conducted among 1,000 Ontarians between May 10th and May 14th, 1999. The first release on the political horse race and key diagnostics was released on Saturday, May 15th, 1999 in the Globe and Mail and is available on the Angus Reid Group website: www.angusreid.com.

Has the "Common Sense Revolution Been a Success or a Failure?

Ontarians are evenly split on whether the Tory "Common Sense Revolution" was a success or a failure - 48% say success, while 46% say failure.

• Regionally, Ontarians living in the 905 area of the GTA (66%) are the most likely to say it has been that the "common sense revolution" has been a success. Residents of Hamilton/Niagara (55%) and Northern Ontario (61%) are most likely to say it was a failure.
• Men (57% versus 40% women) are more likely to say the Harris "Common Sense Revolution" was a success, while women are more likely to say it failed (53% versus 38% men).
• Finally, low-income earners (62%) are most likely to say that the Harris "Common Sense" was a failure.

Majority (53%) of Ontarians Say Forget Tax Cut and Spend on Healthcare and Education - Only One in Four (23%) Want Tax Cut in Their Wallet

The majority of Ontarians (53%) say that if the PCs were re-elected they should forget about the tax cut and spend this money on healthcare and education. The rest are split between suggesting that the money be put towards reducing the deficit and the debt (22%) and implementing the tax cut as planned (23%).

• Younger Ontarians (58%), women (62% versus 44% men) and low income-earners (63%) are most likely to suggest that the tax cut should be forgotten in order to re-direct the money to the healthcare and education system.
• Men are far more likely to suggest putting the tax cut dollars toward reducing the deficit (25% versus 19% women) or implementing the tax cut as planned (29% versus 17% women).
• Regionally, Northern Ontarians (66%) are most likely to suggest the tax cut should be forgotten in order for the money to be spent on healthcare and education.

Majority Believe Harris Will Win Televised Debate

The majority of Ontarians (54%) believe Mike Harris will win the televised leader debate scheduled on Tuesday May 18th, 1999. Far fewer Ontarians think Dalton McGuinty (21%) or Howard Hampton (10%) could win on Tuesday night.

• Low-income earners (48%) and Ontarians living in Hamilton/Niagara (43%) are less likely than others to think Mike Harris will win the debate on Tuesday.

Health Care Remains Number One Issue in Ontario

A third (36%) of Ontarians feel that health care is the most important top-of-mind issue in the current election campaign.

• Women (41% versus 31% men) and older Ontarians (those over 55 years old, 52%) are most likely to consider health care the top issue.
• Ontarians living in Hamilton/Niagara (34%) and the GTA (31%) are less likely than other regions to feel that health care is the most important issue.

Education (21%) and Taxes/tax reform/GST (12%) are also important issues for the voting public.

• Women (27% versus 15% men), younger Ontarians (those aged 18-34, 32%), and those residing in Hamilton/Niagara (31%) are more likely to feel that education is the most important campaign issue.

What Will the Ballot Box Vote be Based On?

Half of Ontarians (50%) say they will vote based on the parties' stand on the issues, while three in ten (29%) intend to vote based on the ability of the party leaders. Another 19% say it will be the qualities of the individual candidates in their own constituency that will be the most important decision in deciding which party to support.

• Eighteen to 34 year olds (57%), the university educated (57%) and those earning over $60k (55%) are most likely to say they will vote based on the parties' stand on the issues.
• Ontarians over 55 years old (32%) are most likely to say they will vote based on the ability of the party leaders.
• Regionally, Ontarians living in the 905 area of the GTA (33%) are more likely than those in the 416 area (28%) to say they will vote based on the ability of the party leaders.

Ontarians Split on Main Reason for Closing Hospitals

Half (48%) of Ontarians agree that paying for the tax cuts that the government brought in and have promised for the future is the main reason for the closing of hospitals during the Tory tenure. The other half (48%) agree that with our aging population and advances in technologies this money would be better invested in home care and long term care facilities.

• Older Ontarians (56%), men (52%) and those earning more than $30k annually (51%) are most likely to support the argument that the money is better invested in home care and long term care facilities.
• GTA split - 53% of those living in 416 believe the hospital closings are the result of fulfilling promises to cut taxes, while 58% of those in the 905 area believe the money is better spent on preparing for an aging population with long term care facilities and home care.

More Ontarians Support the Need to Close Schools

A slim majority (52%) of Ontarians agrees that the main reason the government is closing these schools is because they're in neighborhoods with too few students and are inefficient and too expensive to run. On the other side of the coin, 45% feel that the main reason the government is closing these schools is to pay for the tax cuts that they've brought in and have promised for the future.

• Older Ontarians (those over 55 years old, 56%), men (57% versus 48% women) and those earning more than $60k (58%) are most likely to agree that the schools are closing because they are in neighborhoods with too few students and therefore are too expensive to run.
• Regionally, Northern Ontarians (59%) are most likely to believe school closings are being closed because of the government's tax cuts.

Liberals Thought to do Best Job on Top Campaign Issues (Healthcare and Education); However, Tories Lead on Majority of Issues

When asked their personal view of which party will do the best job on a number of policy issues if they are elected, the Liberals lead on the two most important campaign issues of health care (16% margin) and education (7% margin) while the PCs lead primarily on fiscal and economic issues. However, the Progressive Conservatives are leading the other two main parties on more of the issues examined.

For further information, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900