Ontarians Split on Whether Wynne's Liberals Will be Re-Elected (52%) or Whether PCs (35%) or NDP (14%)
Will Win on Election Day
Regardless of who they would personally vote for, one half (52%) of Ontarians believe that the Liberals will win the election and form the next government, while the other half (48%) of Ontarians think the Progressive Conservatives (35%) or the NDP (14%) will win the election.
The data also reveal that Liberal supporters are more certain of their victory than PC supporters are of their own. Nine in ten (89%) current Liberal voters think that the Liberals will be re-elected, compared to 81% of Tory voters who believe the PCs will win on Election Day. Only one in three (35%) NDP voters believe the NDP will form the next government.
This could help to explain why PC voters appear the most motivated to get out and vote, if they are fearing a Liberal government which previous Ipsos polling suggests, while Liberal voters are less likely to show up and vote, perhaps feeling complacent and more assured of their victory. NDP voters who don't feel their own party has a chance to win could defect and rally behind the Liberals in the final days of the campaign.
In fact, seven in ten (70%) PC voters say that `nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote', making their voters the most motivated to show up, with NDP voters similarly committed to actually showing up (68%). Only 53% of Liberal voters are committed to actually vote, perhaps signalling higher confidence that they will win or some dissatisfaction with the government (but not enough to move them to support another party).
Ontarians Believe Grits Have More Momentum (38%) than the PCs (34%), NDP (28%)...
An Ipsos Reid poll released yesterday revealed that the horserace among all Ontarians - regardless of whether or not they will actually show up and vote - is tightening, with the PCs receiving 36% of the popular vote (up 1 point), compared to 34% for the Liberals (up 3 points), 23% for the NDP (down 5 points) and 7% for other parties (up 1 point).
The topline findings align with what Ontarians believe is happening as more Ontarians perceive that the Liberals (38%) are gaining the most popularity and momentum in the campaign while fewer (34%) believe that momentum belongs to the PCs or the NDP (28%).
While Ontarians believe that momentum might be slightly favouring the Liberals, if Liberal support continues to be anemic, with supporters sitting on their hands rather than heading to the ballot box, the Tories will likely cruise to victory. The Ipsos poll released yesterday revealed that the Tories continue to receive a ballot box bonus, as the vote among likely voters--those actually committed to show up on Election Day - favours the Tories (41%) over the NDP (29%) or Liberals (25%). Momentum will only be useful for the Grits if they can use it to galvanize their supporters to actually show up on E-Day.
Ontarians Split on Who Would Make Best Premier, But Likely Voters Favour Hudak...
Ontarians are split on which of the major party leaders would make the best Premier of Ontario. In a statistical three-way tie, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath (34%, down 4 points), Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne (34%, up 2 points) and PC Leader Tim Hudak (32%, up 2 points) all receive equal proportions of the vote.
However, when examining the division among likely voters, Tim Hudak (38%) builds an advantage over Kathleen Wynne (32%) and Andrea Horwath (30%).
Desire for Change Still Strong...
Seven in ten (69%) Ontarians believe that it is `time for another provincial party to take over' at Queen's Park, While this proportion is down 3 points since last week, the sentiment is still strong. Conversely, nearly three in ten (31%) believe that `the Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected' (up 3 points), a figure that historically tracks closely to the percentage of the popular vote the incumbent receives on Election Day.
Interestingly, even 14% of current Liberal supporters still believe the time for change has arrived, which also helps to explain why the Liberal vote is soft when turnout is taken into account. Nine in ten (89%) NDP voters want change, as do 97% of PC voters.
Examining these figures among likely voters, 71% want change compared to 29% who believe the government deserves to be re-elected.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between May 26 to 29, 2014, on behalf of CTV and CP24. For this survey, a sample of 868 Ontarians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-3.8 percentage points had all adults in Ontario been surveyed.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
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