Ontario Election Debate Viewers Say McGuinty Wins Debate (33%) Over Horwath (29%) Bests Hudak (25%)
A pre-debate survey was conducted among 1,687 Ontario adults; the post-debate survey was conducted among a prescreened group of 1,470 Ontario adults who actually viewed the entire televised debate.
A majority (54%) said there was no `knock-out punch'. However, those who do (46%) are equally split between giving the round to Hudak (16%), Horwath (16%) and McGuinty (14%).
While McGuinty may have narrowly won the debate, it was Andrea Horwath who made the biggest impression on viewers as 67% say they have an improved impression of her as a result of the debate, while just 10% say their impressions worsened, representing a net score of +57, effectively making her the real winner of the debate. By comparison, Jack Layton's net improvement score in the English-language federal debate was +41 points, and +42 in the French-language debate. Three in ten (29%) have an improved impression of Dalton McGuinty, compared to a similar proportion (31%) who have a worsened impression, representing a net score of -2. Four in ten (37%) say that their impressions of Tim Hudak improved, while one in three (34%) say they worsened, a net score of +3.
Viewers were asked to rate the leaders on various attributes and the data are compared to the pre-poll expectations to gauge the impact that the debate had on viewers' opinions of the leaders:
- Half (49%) believe that Dalton McGuinty sounded and acted the most like a Premier (down 4 points), still well ahead of Tim Hudak (27%, +3) and Andrea Horwath (18%, +5). One in twenty (5%, -5) don't know who fits this role the best.
- Andrea Horwath convinced 35% of viewers that she is the leader that has the best ideas and policies (+10), followed closely by Dalton McGuinty (32%, +2) and Tim Hudak (27%, -3). Just 6% don't know which leader has the best ideas and policies (down 8 points).
- Andrea Horwath (52%, +8) was chosen by a majority for being the most likable, that is, the person they would most want to go out for a beer or coffee with. McGuinty (22%, +1) and Hudak (21%, -3) battle it out for second place, while 5% of respondents don't know (-6).
- Andrea Horwath also wins (54%, +12) as the leader who is most visually attractive, with McGuinty (18%, -3 points) and Hudak (14%, unchanged) well behind. One in ten (14%, -9) don't know.
With the NDP leader performing so well compared to expectations, it is interesting to note that one in ten (14%) viewers say they changed their mind about who they were going to vote for as a result of what they saw tonight, with the NDP appearing to be the biggest beneficiary among those who viewed the debates and reportedly switched their vote.
In the post debate poll of viewers the issue of the economy and jobs solidified its position as the primary issue in the campaign (38%, +3) while healthcare (18%, +4) and taxes (13%, -1) continue to be the second and third issues. Other topics that fewer viewers say are most important issue include: education (6%, +2), environment (4%, unchanged), debt/deficit reduction (4%, -3), social services (4%, -2), government accountability (4%, -1), energy/electricity (3%, unchanged), public transit (2%, unchanged), public services (1%, unchanged), poverty (1%, -1), crime/justice (0%, -1), and some other issue (1%, unchanged).
Focusing on specific issues, and who is best to lead on each, reveals that on many topics Tim Hudak lost ground to Andrea Horwath, who appears to have been bolstered by the previously "undecided" moving into her camp:
- Economy - Dalton McGuinty (37%, +3), Tim Hudak (34%, unchanged), Andrea Horwath (15%, +2), don't know (14%, -5).
- Healthcare - Andrea Horwath (35%, +11), Dalton McGuinty (33%, unchanged), Tim Hudak (22%, +1), don't know (10%, -11)
- Taxes - Tim Hudak (36%, -2), Andrea Horwath (24%, +5), Dalton McGuinty (23%, unchanged), don't know (16%, -5).
- Education - Dalton McGuinty (37% -3), Andrea Horwath (29%, +10), Tim Hudak (22%, +2), don't know (11%, -10).
- Environment - Dalton McGuinty (37%, +14), Andrea Horwath (28%, -8), Tim Hudak (14%, -2), don't know (23%, -5).
- Debt/Deficit reduction - Tim Hudak (34%), Dalton McGuinty (27%), Andrea Horwath (16%), don't know (23%).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on September 27, 2011 from immediately before and after the Televised Leaders debate on behalf Global Television. The pre-debate survey was conducted among 1,687 Ontario adults; the post-debate survey was conducted among 1,470 Ontario adults who viewed the debate. Respondents were selected via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The sample was drawn from a pre-recruited panel of 3,730 voters who agreed to participate in the debate survey. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. For the pre-debate poll, a survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Ontario been polled. For the post-debate poll, a survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Ontario been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
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