Ontario Liberals (45%) Ride High while Tory (33%) Vote Plummets For New Eves' Administration (Down from 42%)

Toronto, ON - With the return of the Ontario Legislature in September, Ontario voters have witnessed on ongoing litany of questions on topics including Premier Eves' leadership campaign fundraising, allegations regarding the business expense habits of both the Premier and other ministers (resulting in the resignation of Tourism Minister Cam Jackson), rising hydro rates, and Premier Eves support of Alberta Premier Ralph Klein on his Kyoto position - to name a few. In this environment, a new Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll shows that support for the governing Conservatives (33%) has dropped 9 points since the last provincial sounding in August, while Dalton McGuinty's Liberals (45%, up 1 point) retain their support level among decided voters.

The NDP (14%, up 1 point) also retain their support and remain in third spot and the Green Party makes a dent in the polls with support of 6% of decided voters in the province. Two percent indicate support for some other party, while 13% are undecided or would not vote.

A majority (56%, up 1 point since June) continue to say that it is time for a change while 37% (down from 41% in June) believe that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll conducted between October 15th and October 23rd, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,001 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 1996 Census data.

Support for the governing Conservatives (33%) has dropped 9 points since the last provincial sounding in August.

• The Conservatives receive their highest levels of support in the Southwest (37%), the East (36%), and the `905' Belt (36%), while their lowest support level is in the North (22%).
• Older (41%) voters are more likely than middle aged (35%) or younger (26%) voters to express support for the Tories.
• Support for the Conservatives is higher among men (38%) than women (29%).
• Voters in upper (37%) and middle (35%) income households are more likely than those in lower income households (27%) to express support for the governing Conservatives.

Dalton McGuinty's Liberals (45%, up 1 point) retain their support level among decided voters.

• The Liberals are the top choice among decided voters in all regions of the province, with their highest support occurring in Northern Ontario (54%).
• Younger (48%) and middle aged (46%) voters are more likely to express support for the Liberals than are older (40%) voters in the province.
• A higher proportion of women (50%) express support for Dalton McGuinty's Liberals than do men (40%).

The NDP (14%, up 1 point) also retain their support and remain in third spot.

• Regionally, the NDP receive their highest levels of support in Northern Ontario (21%) and in Hamilton/Niagara (19%), and their lowest support level in Eastern Ontario (7%).
• Support for the NDP is slightly higher among voters in lower income households (18%) compared to those in upper income households (12%).
• NDP support is statistically consistent across age and gender groups.

The Green Party makes a dent in the polls with support of 6% of decided voters in the province.

• The Green Party receives its highest level of support among younger voters between the ages of 18 and 34 (10%).

A majority (56%, up 1 point since June) continue to say that it is time for a change while 37% (down from 41% in June) believe that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.

• Regionally, residents of the City of Toronto (61%), Eastern Ontario (60%), Hamilton/Niagara (59%), Northern Ontario (59%) and the Southwest (53%) are more likely to say it is time for a change than those in the `905' Belt (41%). Conversely, residents of the `905' Belt (48%) are more likely to express the view that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.
• Women (59% versus 52% of men) are more likely to say that it is time for a change, while men (42% versus 33% of women) are more likely to express the view that the Tories deserve to be re-elected.
• There are no statistical differences across age or household income groups.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900