The Ontario Political Scene

The Ontario Liberal Party has once again taken the lead in party popularity according to the findings of the August Angus Reid Report on Ontario poll. While 61% of Ontarians say that the Harris government has Ontario on the right track, the Liberals hold a 7 point lead of 42% versus the Tories at 35%.

It would appear that the shift in support away from the Tories to the Liberals is primarily due to shifts in voter preference among men, those aged 55 or older, and those who are more affluent.

These are the highlights of the findings of the of the province-wide poll of 1,000 adult Ontario residents conducted between August 7th and 14th, 1997:

Vote Preferences

This latest poll shows the Ontario Liberals holding the support of 42 percent of decided Ontario voters (up from 36 percent in June), while the Ontario Progressive Conservatives are at 35 percent (down from 38 percent in June) and the NDP are at 16 percent (no change from June). Also, 6 percent of decided voters chose "other" as a party choice (down from 10% in June). (TABLE 1) (The poll shows 8% of Ontario adults are currently undecided/ refused or not sure they would vote in a provincial election.)

The Ontario parties' support levels continue to vary across different socio-demographic segments of the electorate. (TABLE 1)

• While the Tories hold a bare lead over the other parties among male voters (2 percentage points ahead of the Liberals), this lead has fallen a full 19 percentage points among men in the last two months. Currently, 42% of men support the Tories compared to 28% of women. Notably, the following areas where male approval of the provincial government on key performance measures is down substantially are: providing hope about the future -- (approval down 11 points), providing honest and trustworthy government (down 10 points), preserving our system of healthcare (down 7 points), and protecting the environment (down 7 points).
• In terms of demographics, shifts in support since June can also be noted, most notably among those aged 55 or older. The Conservative's loss in this age group shows a swing of 10 percentage points to the Liberal's gain (from 49% to 39% for the Conservatives versus 27% to 38% for the Liberals), leaving support for the Liberals and Conservatives almost the same.
• The August poll also shows a shift in support by voters at all income levels, most notably among the most affluent. For those earning $60,000+, support for the Conservatives fell from 49% in June to 43% in August. At the same time, support for the Liberal party rose to 42% from 33%, equivalent to the overall popularity of the Liberal party in August.
• In terms of regional differences, our results show that, among decided voters, the Liberal lead over the Tories in the GTA is only 3 percentage points (41% Liberal, 38% Conservatives, 13% NDP, 8% other) whereas in the rest of the province, the Liberal lead over the Conservatives is 10 percentage points (43% Liberal, 33% Conservative, 19% NDP, 6% other).

Provincial Conservatives -- Right Track/Wrong Track?

The Harris Conservatives continue to be seen by a majority of Ontarians to have the province "on the right track". When asked, six in ten (61%) Ontarians said the Harris government has Ontario on the right track. Just over one-third (36%) feel that the Harris government has the province on the wrong track. Men (69%) are substantially more likely than women (54%) to say that Harris has Ontario on the right track. (TABLE 2)

Mike Harris Approval Ratings

Almost one-half of Ontario residents (49%) approve of the performance of Mike Harris as Premier (22% strongly, 27% moderately). Harris's overall performance is down seven percentage points since June. The same number of Ontarians (49%) disapprove of his performance (14% moderately, 34% strongly). Men, still, are substantially more likely to approve of his performance (56%) compared to women (42%); however approval of his performance is down 11 percentage points among men, and down 3 percentage points among women compared to June. (TABLE 3)

For more information on this press release please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900