The Ontario Political Scene

REACTION TO "MEGA-WEEK" ANNOUNCEMENTS

A majority of Ontario residents support the directional changes announced last week by the Harris Conservatives, according to the January, 1997 Angus Reid/Southam News Poll. These are the highlights of the findings of the province-wide poll of 523 adult Ontario residents conducted between January 21 and 27, 1997.

Respondents were asked:

As you probably know, the Ontario government has announced a series of fundamental changes recently, concerning which level of government -- the province or the municipalities -- will have responsibility for various programs and services. Based on whatever you've heard, read or seen about these proposed changes to the role of the provincial and municipal governments in Ontario, all things considered, do you think the Harris Conservative government is on the right track or the wrong track with these changes?

RIGHT TRACK OR WRONG TRACK?

Based on what they have heard, read or seen about the proposed changes to the role of the provincial and municipal governments in Ontario, over one half (52%) of Ontarians think that the Harris Conservative government is on the right track with the changes. More than four in ten (42%) say the Provincial Tories are on the wrong track, and the remaining six percent of the population don't know. (Table 1a, Table 1b)

• Residents outside the Greater Toronto Area (53%, versus 41%) are just as likely to support these changes as those living within the GTA (50%, versus 44%).
• Older (63% of those over age 55, compared to 47% of those aged 18 to 34) and more affluent (59% of those earning more than $60K, versus 48% of those earning less than $30K)) Ontarians show the greatest support for the changes.
• Men (59%) are significantly more likely than women (46%) to support changes to the role of provincial and municipal governments.
• The majority of those with a high school (53%) or some post secondary education (53%) education are likely to ap
• Residents prove of the announced changes. Further, while a plurality of university graduates (49%) are in favour of the changes, there is not a clear majority.

PARTY SUPPORT

This latest poll shows the Harris Conservatives holding the support of 47 percent (up from 44 percent) of decided Ontario voters, while the Liberals' support has dropped four percentage points to 34 percent and the NDP are at 14 percent. All other parties are holding 5 percent of the decided vote. (The poll shows that 12% of Ontario adults are currently undecided/refused or not sure they would vote in a provincial election.) (Table 2a)

The Ontario parties' support levels vary across different socio-demographic segments of the electorate. The Conservatives continue to maintain a strong lead among men (54% to the Liberals' 29%), and have now increased their popularity among women over that of the Liberals (41% versus 39%). Younger voters are also showing increased support for the Conservatives compared to December, 1996, when voters aged 18 to 34 preferred the Liberal party by 9 points over the Conservatives. The two parties are now equal with 38 percent support. Older Ontarians continue to show strong support for the Conservatives, favouring them 31 points over the Liberals (60% versus 29%). Across socio-economic strata, the Conservatives' support is stronger among middle and higher income voters than it is among the least affluent. (Table 2b)

Support for the Conservatives among GTA residents is strong at 46 percent (compared to the Liberals' 35%). PC support is slightly stronger in the rest of Ontario at 48 percent (compared to the Liberals' 33%). (Table 2c)

Approval of Provincial Progressive Conservative Government

In terms of the Harris Conservative government's approval ratings, 56 percent of those polled in January expressed approval (up from 54% in December) of their overall performance while 41 percent disapproved (down from 43% in December). (Table 3a)

Voters' assessment of the Harris government's performance varies most markedly across age groups; whereas most older (68%) Ontario voters surveyed said they approve of the Harris Conservatives' performance, younger groups (53% aged 18-34, 50% aged 35-54) are less likely to approve. Most men continue to approve (62%) of the Harris government, and women now share this view (51% approval versus 45% approval in December). (Table 3b)

GTA residents (58%) are more likely to approve of the Harris government than are residents of the rest of Ontario (55%). (Table 3c)

This Ontario-wide poll was conducted by telephone between January 21st and 27th, 1997, among a representative cross-section of 523 Ontario adults as part of the January National Angus Reid Poll.

The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 1991 Census data.

With the province-wide sample of 523, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within 1774.3 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within the various sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
Senior Vice President
Angus Reid Group
613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
416) 324-2900