The Ontario Political Scene

The Harris Conservatives continue to lead in party popularity according to the December, 1996 Angus Reid Report on Ontario Poll. These are the highlights of the findings of the province-wide poll of 1,003 adult Ontario residents conducted between December 9th and 15th, 1996:

VOTER PREFERENCES

• This latest poll shows the Harris Conservatives holding the support of 44 percent of decided Ontario voters, while the Liberals are at 38 percent and the NDP are at 13 percent. All other parties are holding 5 percent of the decided vote. (Table 1) (The poll shows 16% of Ontario adults are currently undecided/refused or not sure they would vote in a provincial election.)
• The Ontario parties' support levels continue to vary across different socio-demographic segments of the electorate. The Conservatives maintain a lead among men (53% to the Liberals' 33%) but are edged out by the Liberals among women (34% versus 44%). There is a generation gap as well, with Conservative support increasing with age -- from a 9-point deficit against the Liberals among younger voters to a 29-point Conservative lead among older Ontarians. Across socio-economic strata, the Conservatives' support is stronger among middle and higher income voters than it is among the least affluent. (Table 1a, Table 1b)
• In terms of the Harris Conservative government's approval ratings, 54 percent of those polled in December expressed approval of their overall performance while 43 percent disapproved. Voters' assessment of the Harris government's performance varies most markedly across socio-economic strata: whereas most middle (56%) and higher (63%) income voters surveyed said they approve of the Harris Conservatives' performance, most lower income voters (55%) disapprove. Likewise with gender: most men approve (64%) of the Harris government, while most women disapprove (52%). (Table 2a, Table 2b)
• When asked if they feel that the provincial government of Mike Harris and the Progressive Conservatives has Ontario on the right track or the wrong track, a majority (57%) of Ontarians said the Harris government has Ontario on the right track. Two fifths (40%) feel that Harris has Ontario on the wrong track. Men (68%) are significantly more likely than women (46%) to say that Harris has us on the right track. (Table 3)

THE PROVINCIAL BUDGET AND CUTS TO PROVINCIAL TAXES

One half (50%) of the Ontario population would like to see the Mike Harris and the provincial Progressive Conservative government continue to cut government spending enough to balance the provincial budget but not to provide any cut in provincial tax rate.

Respondents were asked which of three options they think the provincial government should follow in order to reduce government spending to balance the budget in the next three years, and to provide a 30% cut in the provincial tax rate. (Table 4)

Highlights include:

• One half (50%) of the Ontario population would like to see the Mike Harris and the provincial Progressive Conservative government continue to cut government spending enough to balance the provincial budget but not to provide any more tax cuts. Older Ontarians (55% of those over the age of 55) are most in favour of this option.
• One quarter (25%) of Ontarians would advise the provincial government to continue to cut government spending to balance the provincial budget and to provide the tax cuts. Younger Ontarians (29% of those aged 18 to 34) show the strongest support for this option, and men prefer this option more than women (29% versus 21%).
• Almost as many (23%) would like to see cuts to government services stop even if it means not balancing the provincial budget in the next three years. This option receives strongest support from women (28%, compared to 17% of men), and Ontarians whose household income is less than $30K (29%).

THE ONTARIO LIBERAL CONVENTION

Two thirds (66%) of the Ontario population were aware of the Ontario Liberal Convention that was held in Toronto on November 30, 1996 in order to elect a new party leader following the departure of Lyn McLeod. One quarter (25%) of these respondents would have voted for Gerrard Kennedy if they had been delegates at the convention. (Table 5)

• Two thirds (66%) of the Ontario population were aware of the Ontario Liberal Convention that was held in Toronto on November 30, 1996 in order to elect a new party leader following the departure of Lyn McLeod. Awareness was highest among older Ontarians (81% of those over the age of 55), university graduates (75%) and those with a household income of more than $60K (74%). Women (60%) were less aware of the convention than were men (72%).. The remaining third (34%) of the Ontario populace were not aware of the convention.
• Of those who were aware of the November 30th convention, one quarter (25%) would have voted for Gerrard Kennedy to become the new leader of the provincial Liberal party if they had been a delegate. Dalton McGuinty was the leader of choice for one fifth (20%) of respondents. Mr. McGuinty's strongest supporters were those earning more than $60K (26%), men (24%), and those without a post secondary education (24%). In fact, in each of these groups, Dalton McGuinty received more support than Gerrard Kennedy. Half (48%) of those who were aware of the convention were unable to say who they would have voted for.

APPROVAL OF DALTON McGUINTY

Three in ten (29%) Ontarians approve of Dalton McGuinty's performance as Leader of the Provincial Liberal party (4% strongly approve, 25% moderately approve). The highest levels of approval came from younger Ontarians (39% of those aged 18 to 34), and those with household incomes of between $30K and $60K (34%). Because of his recent election as leader of the Liberal party, most respondents (56%) were unable to offer an opinion on the performance of Mr. McGuinty.

This Ontario-wide poll was conducted by telephone between December 9th and 15th, 1996, among a representative cross-section of 1,003 Ontario adults as part of the December Angus Reid Report on Ontario poll.

The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 1991 Census data.

With the province-wide sample of 1,003, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±3.1 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within the various sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information on this release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900