Ontario Political Scene -August 2001

Healthcare (70%) Rockets Up As Province's Top Priority

Toronto, ON - Support for the Mike Harris government continues to languish with only one-third (34%) of decided voters saying they would vote for the PC party if an election were held tomorrow.

But, despite numerous controversial issues for the Premier and his party over the last month including his testifying at the Walkerton Inquiry, threatening to fire teachers who do not participate in re-certification and testing program, and continued problems for the healthcare system in which the Premier led his counterparts to attack the Federal government for its lack of healthcare funding only to be rebuked by the Federal Minister of Health -- the decided voter political landscape has remained the same since the last sounding in June. The latest Ontario Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV/CFRB poll, released today, shows that the lead held by the Liberals (52% of decided voters versus 53% in June 2001) over the Tories (34% of decided voters versus 33% in June 2001) has not changed, and the NDP remain virtually the same at 13 percent (versus 12% in June 2001).

And, in the 905 area code - which surrounds the Greater Toronto Area - once the PC voter bastion, the provincial Liberals now lead with 50 percent support to the Tories 42 percent and the NDP 8 percent. A voting area which should be closely watched, the Liberals are down from their first foray in June of 58 percent versus 37 percent for PCs and 5 percent for the NDP during a provincial by-election. Also, it is important to note that when voters are asked whether or not the Harris government "deserves to be re-elected", it has the support of 50 percent versus 48 percent who say it is "time for a change". The question is whether or not the Liberals have actually captured 905 or whether they will be displaced by a resurgence in PC voter support.

Another thing that has not changed is that six in ten (60% versus 60% in June) Ontarians say that it's "time for a change", while less than four in ten (36% versus 37% in June) say that the Harris government "deserves to be re-elected".

The issue agenda is being driven by one issue: healthcare.

According to residents, the number one provincial issue that should be addressed by their leaders continues to be healthcare -with seven-in-ten (70%) putting it at the top of the chart -- up from 61 percent in June 2001. To underscore the intensity of this issue on the public agenda, a full 50 percent mentioned this issue as their first "top-of-mind" mention versus second place education, which was only given first mention status by 17 percent. On a total mention basis, education has clearly fallen back with just 45 percent of Ontarians naming education has the issue which should receive the greatest attention from Ontario's leaders, down from 53 percent last month. This is the highest concern that Ontarians have expressed about healthcare issues since April, 2000.

The poll also shows that despite problems that voters have with specific policies of the Harris government, a majority (54%) "overall" still believe that it is "on the right track". This finding, however, tracks a diminishing number of people in the province who feel that way -- tracking on this key measure for the provincial government has shown a continual decrease since March 1999. At that time, six in ten (63%) Ontarians believed that Mike Harris and the provincial PCs had Ontario "on the right track". This fell to 59 percent by June 2000, and now 54 percent of Ontarians say they believe that the provincial government of Mike Harris and the provincial PCs has Ontario "on the right track".

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV/CFRB poll conducted between August 8th and August 15th, 2001. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,001 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 1996 Census data.

Liberals (52%) Continue To Lead Tories (34%) and NDP (13%)

The Liberals continue to lead the Tories among Ontario's decided voter population by roughly 20 percentage points, with no notable change from June. Half (52% versus 53% in June 2001) say that if a provincial election were held tomorrow, they would support the Liberals, compared to 34 percent (versus 33% in June 2001) for the PCs and 13 percent (versus 12%in June 2001) for the NDP. Similarly, the Premier's "deserve to be elected" numbers remain the same as they did a month or so ago. Six-in-ten (60% versus 60% in June) Ontarians say that it's "time for a change", while less than four-in-ten (36% versus 37% in June) say that the Harris government "deserves to be re-elected".

• The PCs also continue to garner a higher proportion of their support from men. Among Ontario's decided voters, four-in-ten (42%) men support the PCs compared to just one-quarter (26%) of women. The PCs are also more likely to have the support of higher-income households: less than 30k (17%), $30k to $60k (30%) and $60k+ (43%).
• In contrast, the Liberals' support among decided voters is more likely to come from women (58%) than men (47%), but with little variation among the income brackets.

Ontarians Believe PC's Less and Less "On The Right Track" - But A Majority (54%) Still Believe So

Although the Tories haven't lost any ground to the reigning Liberals in overall support, they have lost some ground with Ontarians in terms of the direction they are taking in the province. Ontarians were asked: "Overall, would you say that the provincial government of Mike Harris and the Progressive Conservatives has Ontario on the right track or the wrong track?" Down 5 percentage points from June 2000 and 9 percentage points from March 1999, just over half (54%) now say that Mike Harris and the PCs have the province "on the right track'. Furthermore, just four-in-ten (41%) decided Liberal voters say that the province is "on the right track".

Healthcare (70%) Rockets Up As Province's Top Priority

Ontarians continue to place Healthcare at the top of their provincial wish list; rating it the number one issue which should receive the greatest attention from Ontario's leaders. However, recently the intensity of the concern over healthcare has shown a significant increase. In June 2001, Healthcare was mentioned as the province's number one issue, by 61 percent of Ontarians. Today, a full 70 percent of Ontarians call healthcare the number one issue, and was the first "top-of-mind" mention of half (50%) of Ontarians. While education reigns as Ontario's second most important issue, it has fallen considerably over the summer months- from 58 percent in May to 53 percent in June and 45 percent in August. Moreover, just 17 percent of Ontarians mention education first, ahead of healthcare as the province's top priority.

The environment/pollution (17% of total mentions) remains the consistent third ranked issue among Ontarians, while poverty/the poor/welfare-homelessness (9%), jobs/unemployment (8%), and taxes/tax reform/GST -general (7%) also continue to be near the top of the agenda in the minds of Ontarians.

• Notably, 905 residents (51%) are more likely than residents of the 416 area (40%) to mention healthcare first, ahead of education.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900