Ontario Political Scene September 2000

Education (59%) has Risen 14 Points to Capture Top Spot on the Ontario Issue Agenda

Ontario Public is Split on Support for a Teacher's Strike (50% support, 49% oppose) In the Wake of the Government and Teachers' Union Trading Barbs

Toronto, ON - The results of an Angus Reid/Globe and Mail/CFRB poll indicate that as the Ontario legislature returns from its summer break, the Ontario Liberals (46%) are maintaining their 7 point lead over the Harris Tories (39%) and the NDP is holding steady at 15 percent. Further, leader approvals show that Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty (49% approve) is in a virtual tie with Premier Mike Harris (48%), while NDP leader Howard Hampton trails close behind at 42 percent. Education (59%) has risen 14 points since June 2000 and has now replaced healthcare (57%) as the top priority for Ontario's leaders. Education's rebound comes in the wake of teachers' unions and the government trading barbs on potential strike action. This poll reveals that Ontarians are split on their support for a teachers strike (50% support, 49% oppose).

These are the findings of an Angus Reid/Globe and Mail/CFRB poll conducted between August 22nd and August 29th, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,002 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 1996 Census data.

As the Ontario Legislature Returns From its Summer Recess the Ontario Liberals (46%) Maintain their Lead Over the Harris Tories (39%) and the NDP Holds Steady at 15%

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, the Ontario Liberals would receive 46 percent of the popular vote while the governing Tories would receive 39 percent support and the NDP comes in third place with 15 percent. These numbers are largely unchanged since June 2000 when the Ontario Liberals received 45 percent support, the Harris Tories received 38 percent and the NDP received 15 percent support.

• Younger Ontarians are much more likely to support the Ontario Liberals (52%) than the Harris Tories (33%).
• Support for the Conservatives is much higher among men (43%) as opposed to women (34%). Conversely, women (49%) are more likely than men (42%) to support the Liberals.

Leader Approvals Show Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty (49%) in a Virtual Tie With Premier Harris (48%) While NDP Leader Howard Hampton is Close Behind at 42%

Approval ratings for the provincial party leaders show that Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty (49%) and Premier Mike Harris (48%) are in a virtual tie for overall approval. The NDP's leader, Howard Hampton is close behind at 42 percent.

Education (59%) has Risen 14 Points to Capture Top Spot on the Ontario Issue Agenda

The number of Ontarians (59%) who say that "education/schools" is the issue which should receive the greatest attention from Ontario's leaders has risen 14 points since June 2000 and now sits slightly ahead of healthcare (57%) as the top issue on the public agenda. The environment/pollution (17%) captures third place, while poverty (11%), and taxes (10%) round out the top five.

Ontario Public is Split on Support for a Teacher's Strike (50% support, 49% oppose) In the Wake of the Government and Teachers' Union Trading Barbs

Education's rebound to the forefront of the Ontario issue agenda comes in the wake of the teachers' unions and the government trading barbs on potential job action by teachers. Public opinion in Ontario is split as to whether it would support (50%) or oppose (49%) a teacher's strike to fight against changes in the education system. This contrasts with polling data from October 1997 when only 42 percent of Ontarians said they would support a teacher's strike (56% were opposed).

Ninety percent of Ontarians say that as far as they know, the issues the teachers raised when they went on strike in 1997 were "not resolved" when the strike ended. If the teachers were to go on strike again, the public would split the blame between the government (51%) and the teachers' unions (45%).

• Residents of northern Ontario (63%) are more likely than residents in other parts of the province to say they would support a strike.
• Residents of the City of Toronto (55%) are more likely than residents of the 905 area (42%) to support a teacher's strike.
• Support for a teacher's strike declines by age, from 59 percent among younger Ontarians, to 47 percent among those who are middle aged and 41 percent among older Ontarians.
• Men (47%) are less likely than women (53%) to support a strike.
• University graduates (57%) are more likely than those without a university education (46%) to support a strike.

  For more information on this news release, please contact:

  John Wright
  Senior Vice President
  Public Affairs
  Angus Reid Group
  (416) 324-2900