Ontario Politics March 2001

Healthcare (56%) and Education (44%) Drop Slightly but Continue as Top Issues for Ontarians

Toronto, ON - The first Ontario politics poll of 2001 conducted by Ipsos-Reid and the Globe and Mail shows that support for the Harris Tories continues to slip away (down 3 points since December 2000 - 34%) and they are currently at their lowest level (31%) since March 1995 - before they were elected. Meanwhile, support for the Ontario Liberals continues to rise (up 6 points since December 2000 - 45%) and now stands at 51 percent. The NDP is up slightly to 15 percent of decided voters. Underscoring the slipping Tory support, the percentage of Ontarians who say the government "deserves to be re-elected" has dropped to its lowest level ever (39%) - 3 points lower than the previous low (42%) reached in December 2000. Similarly, the percentage who say "it's time for a change" now stands at 58 percent. In terms of most important issue facing Ontario, healthcare (56%) and education (44%) have dropped slightly since December (healthcare down 6 points, education down 4 points) but are still far and away the two issues Ontarians say deserve the greatest attention.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail poll conducted between February 6th and February 19th, 2001. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 1996 Census data.

Tory Support (31%) At Lowest Level Since Spring 1995 - Liberal Support (51%)Continues To Rise

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, 51 percent of decided voters say they would support the Liberals. This is up 6 points since December 2000 (45%) and slightly higher than the previous high of 50 percent in October 2000. Support for the Progressive Conservatives (31%) has dipped 3 points since December (34%) and is now at its lowest level since before the 1995 (March 1995 - 24%) provincial election. Support for the NDP is up very slightly to 15 percent (from 13% in December).

• Support for the Liberals is highest in the Southwest (53%) and the GTA (53%) and lowest (44%) in Hamilton/Niagara.
• Support for the PCs is highest in the eastern regions (40%) and lowest in the north (21%).
• PC support continues to be higher in the 905 region (36%) and much lower in the 416 region (23%). However, support for the Liberals is also higher in 905 (55%) as opposed to 416 (51%) while the NDP has much stronger support in 416 (23%) as opposed to 905 (6%).
• Men (38%) are much more likely than women (23%) to say they would vote for the Tories, while women (55%) are more likely than men (47%) to say they would vote for the Liberals.

Lowest Level Ever (39%) Say Tories "Deserve to be Re-elected" as 58% Say "It's Time for a Change"

In addition to a slip in support, the percentage of Ontarians who say they "deserve to be re-elected" has dropped to its lowest level ever. Only 39 percent say the government "has accomplished a lot of good for the province - have stayed true to their word and deserve to be re-elected". This is down 3 points since the previous low in December 2000 (42%) and down 8 points since June 1999 (47%). In contrast, 58 percent (up from 56% in December and 51% in June 1999) say "the Harris government has done all it can do and it is time for another provincial party to take over and run the province".

• While 905 residents (47%) are more likely than 416 residents (33%) to say the Tories "deserve to be re-elected" this is the first time that less than a majority of 905 residents say the government "deserves to be re-elected".
• Consistent with the trends in party support, men (47%) are more likely than women (31%) to say the government "deserves to be re-elected".

Healthcare (56%) and Education (44%) Drop Slightly but Continue as Top Issues for Ontarians

Healthcare (56%) continues to be the issue which Ontarians feel should receive the greatest attention from Ontario's leaders but is down 6 points since December 2000 (62%). Education (44%) continues as the second-most important issue but has dropped 4 points over the same time frame and is down 9 points since October 2000 (53%). The environment has moved up (5 points since December) to third place (14%) while poverty (13%) and taxes (12%) round out the top five.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900