ONTARIO TORIES (41%) AND LIBERALS (41%) IN DEAD HEAT AS LEGISLATURE CLOSES SESSION

ONTARIO TORIES (41%) AND LIBERALS (41%) IN DEAD HEAT AS LEGISLATURE CLOSES SESSION

BUT ALMOST TWO THIRDS (62%) BELIEVE PREMIER HARRIS AND THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK

HEALTHCARE AND EDUCATION REMAIN TOP ISSUES OF CONCERN BUT TORIES GET BOUNCE ON APPROVAL RATINGS

This Angus Reid Group/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone between December 2nd and 7th, 1998 among a representative cross-section of 1,000 Ontarian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are accurate to within +3.1 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontarian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

As the Legislature closes for the holiday season the provincial Liberal and Conservative Parties are in a dead heat in the polls amongst decided voters. But almost two thirds (62%) of Ontarians believe that Premier Harris and the provincial government are on "the right track." Healthcare (61%) and education (55%) remain top issues of concern, but approval ratings for the government's performance on these issues have increased since the last sounding taken during October and in the midst of a significant advertising campaign on both issues.

These are some of the highlights of an Angus Reid Poll conducted among 1,000 Ontarians between December 2nd and 7th. A survey of this size is said to have a margin of error of +3.1% nineteen times out of twenty.

Provincial Conservatives and Liberals in Dead Heat in Polls

Receiving 41% of the decided vote, the provincial government led by Mike Harris is tied with opposition leader Dalton McGuinty and the Liberal Party in the polls. Remaining steady at a distant third is the third party leader Howard Hampton and the NDP with 13% support. The remaining decided voters (5%) would vote for "some other party," and the undecided vote currently sits at 11%.

• Ontarians over the age of 55 years (50%), men (44%) and those with an income over $60k (46%) are more likely to cast a vote for the conservatives than other subgroupings.
• Respondents between the ages of 18 and 34 (48%) and women (46%) are more likely to vote Liberal if a provincial election were held today.

The PC Government is on the Right Track

Almost two thirds (62%) of Ontarians believe the current provincial government of Mike Harris and the Progressive Conservatives has their province "on the right track." Indeed, 28% "strongly agree" with the government's direction for Ontario while 34% "somewhat agree" with it being the right track. On the other hand, 11% believe the government is on "somewhat" of the wrong track; however, double this amount (24%) believe it is "strongly" on the wrong track for Ontario.

• Ontarians who are 55 years of age or older (69%) are more likely than other age groups (18-54, 60%) to believe the provincial government is on the right track.
• Men (65%) are slightly more likely than women (60%) to suggest that the government is on the right track.
• Respondents who earn $30k or less (46%) are less likely than other income categories to think that the government is leading Ontario in the right direction.

Healthcare (61%) and Education (55%) - The Most Important Issues and Higher Approval

Ontarians believe that Healthcare (61%) and education (55%) are the two most important issues facing Ontario's leaders today. Other mentions include concern about jobs (21%), poverty (15%), taxes (10%), the economy in general (9%) and the deficit (8%).

Approval of Provincial Government's Performance Regarding Ontario Healthcare System Bounces up Since October

Approval of the provincial government's performance in terms of the healthcare system is up 6 percentage points since October when approval was sitting at 38%. Forty four percent of Ontarians now approve of the job the government is doing with the provincial healthcare system. However, the majority still disapproves (55%) with 21% "somewhat disapproving" and another 34% "strongly disapproving".

• Approval of the provincial government's performance regarding healthcare has increased 12 percentage points since the beginning of 1998 - 32% up to current 44% approval.
• Women (60%) are more likely than men (49%) to disapprove of the provincial government's performance regarding healthcare.

Approval of Provincial Government's Performance in Education Bounces up Since October

Up 7 percentage points since the last sounding in October when approval of the government's performance sat at 42% on education, approval ratings have increased to 49%. One quarter (25%) of Ontarians say they strongly approve and another quarter (24%) somewhat approve. Of those who disapprove of the government's handling of education, 17% somewhat disapprove while double again (34%) strongly disapprove.

• Approval has increased by 12 percentage points since the beginning of 1998 - 37% in February 1998 to the current 49% approval of the government's performance pertaining to education.
• Ontarians over the age of 55 (56%) are more likely than other age groupings to approve of the government's performance in ensuring quality education. Those with a university education (41%) are less likely than those with high school (50%) or some post-secondary education (55%) to approve of the government's approach to education in the province.
• Men (54%) are more likely than women (45%) to approve of the government's performance regarding the education system.
• Finally, those Ontarians earning less than $30k (43%) are less likely than those in higher income brackets (51%) to approve of the government's approach to education.

For further information, please contact

Wayne Nygren
President and Chief Executive Officer
Credit Union Central of British Columbia
(604) 737-5034

Maria Doyle
Manager, Marketing
Credit Union Central of British Columbia
(604) 730-6455