Ontario Tories Remain Ahead, but Liberals Closing the Gap
Ontario Tories Remain Ahead, but Liberals Closing the Gap

Ontario Tories Remain Ahead, but Liberals Closing the Gap

Liberals gain momentum as opposition shifts, while Ford’s leadership and re-election prospects remain resilient.


 

Provincial Vote

 

One year after the 2025 Ontario election, Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PC Party continue to hold the largest share of the decided popular vote at 42% (down 1 point from E-Day), but the Liberals under interim leader John Fraser (35%, +5 pts) are rallying and narrowing the gap. The NDP (18%, -1 pt) and Greens (7%, -1 pt) are struggling to build on their election performance.


One year after the 2025 Ontario election, Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PC Party continue to hold the largest share of the decided popular vote at 42% (down 1 point from E-Day), but the Liberals under interim leader John Fraser (35%, +5 pts) are rallying and narrowing the gap. The NDP (18%, -1 pt) and Greens (7%, -1 pt) are struggling to build on their election performance. Given Ford's lead, most (69%) Ontarians do not expect that he will step down as Premier before the next provincial election in 2029, while 31% believe he will. 
 

One year after the 2025 Ontario election, Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PC Party continue to hold the largest share of the decided popular vote at 42% (down 1 point from E-Day), but the Liberals under interim leader John Fraser (35%, +5 pts) are rallying and narrowing the gap. The NDP (18%, -1 pt) and Greens (7%, -1 pt) are struggling to build on their election performance.


 

Party leader approval

 

While only 42% approve of the performance of Doug Ford as leader of the Progressive Conservative party, it far surpasses the approval ratings that Ontarians give Marit Stiles (32%), Mike Schreiner (27%) and John Fraser (24%)  as leaders of their respective parties. 


While only 42% approve of the performance of Doug Ford as leader of the Progressive Conservative party, it far surpasses the approval ratings that Ontarians give Marit Stiles (32%), Mike Schreiner (27%) and John Fraser (24%)  as leaders of their respective parties. 
 

Four in ten (40%) believe that the Ford Government has done a  good job and deserves re-election. While this is down 7 points from the 2025 campaign, it still represents  a figure that is typically strong enough to ensure electoral victory in our multi-party First-Past-the-Post system. Six in ten (60%, +7 pts) believe it's time for another provincial party to take over. 

Four in ten (40%) believe that the Ford Government has done a  good job and deserves re-election. While this is down 7 points from the 2025 campaign, it still represents  a figure that is typically strong enough to ensure electoral victory in our multi-party First-Past-the-Post system. Six in ten (60%, +7 pts) believe it's time for another provincial party to take over. 

 

About the study


These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 10 and 11, 2026, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 801 residents of Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the population of Ontario according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affair
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

 

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