Out Of The Gate: Impressions Of The New Conservative Party Leadership Race: A Race of Unknowns

Toronto, ONT - According to the latest Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, the majority of Canadians feel they do not know enough about any of the new Conservative Party leadership hopefuls to be able to form an opinion about them. Three quarters (77%) of Canadians state they don't know enough about Tony Clement to form an opinion of him; seven in ten (69%) say the same about Belinda Stronach and more than half (55%) feel this way about Stephen Harper.

Former Alliance leader Stephen Harper has the most fans of all the Conservative leadership candidates, as one quarter (23%) have a positive impression of him. Ms. Stronach trails, with one in five (20%) saying they have a positive impression of her. With Tony Clement following further behind, having one in ten (12%) answering that they have a positive impression.

The Federal Liberal Party (48%) continues to hold a resounding lead over all of the opposition parties among decided voters (this is unchanged since the last Ipsos-Reid poll release in December of 2003). But despite a high media profile for the Conservative leadership race, the newly formed Conservative Party has not gained any momentum (19%) since the last poll conducted just after the party had been formed in December (when the Conservatives sat at 21%).

The NDP (16%, up 2 points) trail closely behind the Conservatives, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (10%, up 1 point) and the Green Party (4%, unchanged).

Meanwhile, Canadians are split when considering whether Prime Minister Martin should call an election this spring. Slightly less than half (45%) of respondents agree with the statement that Martin should not call an election this spring, while virtually the same propotion (48%) disagree.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll. The polling for questions dealing with the Federal vote and election timeframe were conducted between January 13 and January 15th 2004, and the question concerning the Conservative Party candidates was conducted between January 20th and January 22nd. Each telephone survey is based on a randomly selected sample of 1055 adult Canadians during each time frame. With a sample of this size, the results for each question are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Out of the Gate: Impressions of the New Conservative Party Leadership Candidates

When asked to provide their impressions of each leadership candidate for the newly formed Conservative Party of Canada, in all cases a majority of Canadians stated that they don't know enough about the individual running to have formed an impression. It would appear that Tony Clement (the former Ontario Cabinet Minister) is the biggest mystery to the Canadian public, as three quarters of (77%) respondents answered that don't know enough about him to have an impression. Belinda Stronach, the former CEO of Magna International, follows closely behind Mr. Clement with respect to her level of ambiguity, with seven in ten (69%) Canadians saying that they are not adequately informed to have developed an impression of her. While more than half of (55%) Canadians state that they don't know enough about Stephen Harper to have formed an impression of him.

But of those who offer an opinion, Stephen Harper leads all candidates in terms of a positive impression, as one quarter of Canadians (23%) view him in a positive light, compared to 22% who view him negatively (net +1 point).

• Stephen Harper has made the best impression in the province of Alberta, where four in ten respondents (43%) state that they have a positive impression of the former opposition leader. The proportion of good-will towards Mr. Harper plummets by two-thirds in Quebec, where one in seven (15%) state they are positively impressed by him. All other regions of Canada have relatively equal levels of positive impressions of Mr. Harper, with British Columbia (26%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (25%), Ontario (23%) and Atlantic Canada (22%) falling in order.

• As Canadians get older, they are more likely to have a positive impression of Stephen Harper (17% , aged 18-34; 22%, aged 35-54, 33%, aged 55+).

• Men are significantly more apt than women to have a positive impression of Mr. Harper (29% vs. 18%).

Ms. Stronach comes in second with one in five Canadians (20%) feeling positively impressed by her, in contrast to the 11% who have a negative impression (net +9 points).

• Ms. Stronach has positively impressed a quarter of respondents in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (23%), Ontario (23%), and Atlantic Canada (23%), and has made the least positive impression in British Columbia (17%) and Quebec (14%), while Alberta (20%) lands in the middle.

• Men are significantly more inclined to have a positive impression of Ms. Stronach.

Tony Clement comes in third place, leaving a positive impression with only one in ten (12%) Canadians -- balancing against one in ten (11%) who have a negative impression of him (net +1 point).

• A significantly higher proportion of respondents in Ontario (21%) than any other region have a positive impression of Tony Clement.

• Men are also significantly more likely to feel positively about Tony Clement (14% vs. 9%).

• The older the respondents, the more likely they are to feel positively about Tony Clement (aged 55+ 16%, 35-54 11%, 18-34 9%).

Liberals Maintain Dominance, New Conservative Party Not Making Headway

The Liberals continue to dominate the Federal political landscape, as half (48%) of decided voters say they would vote for the Liberal Party if a Federal election were held tomorrow (unchanged from 48% in the December 12th poll). With 19% national support, which is essentially unchanged from 21% in the December 12th poll, it would appear that the new Conservative Party has so far not been very successful in building voter momentum. Trailing closely behind the Conservatives is the NDP at 16%, while the Bloc Quebecois (10%), and the Green Party (4%) trail further behind.

• The new Conservative Party garners the highest levels of support in Alberta (47%, down 3 points) and Atlantic Canada at (37%, up 8 points). Support is relatively equal across British Columbia (at 20% up 3 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (20%, down sharply 10 points), and Ontario (18%, down 5 points). The Conservative Party remains virtually non-existent in Quebec, coming in at 4% voter support (unchanged from 5%).

• Ontarians are the strongest supporters of the Liberal party, as six in ten Ontarians (57%, up 3 points) would vote for the Liberals if a Federal election were held tomorrow. British Columbia (42%, up 1 point), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (46%, up sharply 14 points), Quebec (45%, unchanged) and Atlantic Canada (43%, down 7 points) have relatively equal levels of support for the Liberals. Albertans are the least likely to vote Liberal, with one third (35%, up 6 points) of them choosing the Liberal option.

• Older Canadians are more likely than younger Canadians to support the Conservative party (11% of those aged18-34, 18% those aged 35-54, and 27% those aged 55+). While, the young are more likely than the old to vote Liberal (52% those aged 18-34, 48% aged 35-54, 44% aged 55+).

• Men (22%) are significantly more likely than women (16%) to vote Conservative.

• Canadians living in rural areas are significantly more apt to vote Conservative (25%) than rural dwelling Canadians (17%).

• As income increases, propensity to vote Conservative rises (14%

Canadians Split on Whether Martin Should Call an Election This Spring

Canadians are split as to whether Paul Martin should call an election this coming spring. One half (45%) of respondents agree with the statement that Martin should not call an election this spring (24% somewhat agree, 21% strongly agree), while the other half (48%) do not agree with this statement (22% somewhat disagree, 26% strongly disagree). With 7% of respondents answering that they "don't know."

• Quebecers (52%) are the most likely to believe that Martin should not call an election this spring, while British Columbians (39%) are the least likely to support this notion. Saskatchewan/Manitoba (47%), Alberta (43%), Ontario (42%), and Atlantic Canada (42%), share approximately equal levels of opinion about this topic.

Please open the attached PDF files to view the release and detailed tables.

-30-

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900