Over One Third (36%) Of Canadians Predict Worsening Of Canadian Economy

Ottawa, ON - Many Canadians remain skittish when thinking about the future of the Canadian economy, with a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global National revealing that over one third (36%) of Canadians believe that Canada's economy will `worsen' in the next year or so, an increase of one percentage point since January. Concern regarding a slowdown here in Canada is likely being fuelled by the recent admission of a possible recession south of the border by the U.S. Federal Reserve, but that concern or anxiety has not yet turned to panic.

Across the country, fears of a slowing economy are stronger in some places than in others. Ontarians (43%, unchanged since January) are the most worried that the economy will `worsen' going forward, with four in ten Albertans (41%, up 7 points) also feeling that the economy will slow going forward. British Columbians (36%, unchanged), residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (33%, up 10 points), Atlantic Canada (28%, unchanged) and Quebec (25%, down 2 points) are less likely to think so, but a certain degree of apprehension is present across the board.

While 78% of Canadians still believe the economy is in a `very good' (8%) or `good' (70%) state, this number has dropped by seven points since February, a drop which could portend further nervousness concerning the future of the economy. In fact, two in ten (20%) currently give the economy a `poor' (17%) or `very poor' (3%) assessment.

Furthermore, just 20% of Canadians (down 2 points since February) believe that the Canadian economy will `improve' over the next year or so, while four in ten (43%, down 21 points) think it will `stay the same'.

Skittishness regarding the overall economy is not necessarily being translated into concern over one's own economic future. Despite an overall worsening impression of the economy in the last months, job-loss anxiety among Canadians remains quite low as only 16% of Canadians say they, or someone in their family, are worried about losing their job or being laid off, a decrease of one point since February.

• Job anxiety is highest in Ontario (20%) and Quebec (17%), with anxiety being less acute in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (14%), British Columbia (13%), Alberta (9%) and Atlantic Canada (9%).

Even though Canadians are painting a less-rosy picture of the economy than they were a few months ago, most believe that their own family will continue to do fine. While one half (50%) believes their family's own economic situation will stay the same in the next year or so, significantly more believe their situation will `improve' (31%) than believe that it will become `worse' (18%).

Thinking about interest rates, one of the key drivers of the economy, Canadians appear to be uncertain on the future direction of rates in Canada, effectively mirroring the uncertainty of the future of the economy. One third (34%) believes that rates will remain unchanged from their current position, while four in ten (41%) think that rates will go up. On the other hand, one in four (23%) believes that rates will continue to go down.

Turning to home-buying purchasing intentions, 7% (up two points from August) of Canadians suggest that they are `very likely' to purchase a home or another home right now, while another 8% (down one point) consider themselves to be `somewhat likely' to do so. Most, however, are `not very likely' (14%) or `not at all likely' (70%) to purchase a house in the near future.

• The increase in overall intentions is being fuelled by a red-hot market in Alberta. Albertans are considerably more inclined (13%) to say that they are `very likely' (13%) to purchase a home or another home right now. British Columbians (5%) are the least likely to say this, while the rest of Canada falls in the middle (7%).

It appears that Canadians' are keeping their spending intentions for major purchases (e.g. car, appliances or vacations) in check and that these expenses will roughly equal that of last year. While four in ten (41%, down 4 points from August) say the amount of money they spend on these items will be `about the same as last year', equal proportions say that their spending in this regard will `increase' (29%, up 2 points) or `decrease' (29%, up 1 point).

• Residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%) are most likely to say that they will spend more on these items this year, followed by Atlantic Canadians (32%), Albertans (30%), Ontarians (28%), Quebecers (27%), and British Columbians (25%).
• British Columbians (34%) are most likely to say they'll lessen their spending in this regard, followed by those in Ontario (33%), Atlantic Canada (28%), Alberta (28%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (25%) and Quebec (21%).

Some growth might occur in the day-to-day spending habits of Canadians, perhaps simply a function of the rising prices of every-day purchases like food and gas. A majority (53%, down 5 points) indicates that their spending on groceries, clothing or other personal goods and services will be `about the same as last year', but one in three (34%, up 3 points) indicates that their spending on these items will be `more than last year', while just one in ten (14%, up 3 points) suggests that their spending will be `less than last year' on these items.

• Residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (42%) are most likely to say they'll be spending more on their day-to-day expenses, followed by Ontarians (37%), Albertans (36%), Atlantic Canadians (33%), Albertans (36%), Quebecers (29%) and British Columbians (28%).
• Ontarians (17%) are the most likely to say that they'll be spending less than last year on their day-to-day spending habits, followed by those in Alberta (16%), Atlantic Canada (14%), British Columbia (13%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (11%) and Quebec (9%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television from April 8 to April 10, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999.

In 2007, Ipsos generated global revenues of e927.2 million ($1.27 billion U.S.).

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.

Ipsos, listed on the Eurolist of Euronext - Comp B, is part of SBF 120 and the Mid-100 Index, adheres to the Next Prime segment and is eligible to the Deferred Settlement System. Isin FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP