Overall Vote Stabilizes: Liberals at 36%,

Toronto, ONT - According to the latest Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, national Liberal voter support appears to have stabilized after experiencing a dramatic drop-off over the past month; dropping from 48% on January 15th, to 39% on February 12th, to 35% on February 15th. Among decided voters, 36% would vote Liberal if a federal election were held tomorrow, 27% would vote Conservative, 17% would vote NDP, and 11% would vote for the Bloc. The Green Party has 4% of the decided vote, and another 5% say they would vote for some other party. A small percentage say they would not vote, don't know, or refused to answer when asked how they would vote if a federal election were held tomorrow (8%).

And, as former Alliance leader Stephen Harper, former Magna CEO Belinda Stronach, and former Ontario Cabinet Minister Tony Clement ready themselves for the debate on February 22nd; a poll of almost 1,000 voters who say they would vote Conservative if a federal election were held tomorrow indicates that most Conservatives want Mr. Harper (46%) to lead the Party. One quarter (26%) would vote for Ms. Stronach, and 17% favour Mr. Clement. 11% of Conservative supporters say they `don't know' who they want as leader.

It is important to note that this poll is of Conservative voters in the general public and is not representative of those who may or may not have bought Conservative Party memberships and are eligible to vote in the upcoming Conservative Party leadership convention.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll. The polling for questions dealing with the Federal vote were conducted between February 17th and February 19th 2004, and the question concerning the Conservative Party leadership candidates was conducted between February 3rd and February 19th. The Federal vote questions are based on a randomly selected sample of 1059 adult Canadians during this time frame. With a sample of this size, the results for each question are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The questions on the Conservative Party leadership candidates report are based on a sample of 967 self-identified Conservative supporters (those who answer they would vote Conservative if a federal election were held tomorrow). With a sample of this size, the results for each question are considered accurate to within 1773.15 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 what they would have been had the entire adult population of identified Conservative supporters been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data. Liberal Slide Stops As Support Stabilizes After sliding downwards for the past month, it appears that support for Paul Martin's Liberals has stabilized. When asked whom they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow, 36% of decided voters say they would vote Liberal - essentially unchanged since the last survey. The Conservative Party (27%), the NDP (17%), and the Bloc Quebecois (11%) also have seen their voter support remain unchanged. The Green Party would attract 4% of decided voters (down 1 point), while another 5% say they would vote for some other party. A small percentage say they would not vote, don't know, or refused to answer when asked how they would vote if a federal election were held tomorrow (8%).

• The Liberals are down sharply in Atlantic Canada (39%, down 8 points from 47%), and remain mired in British Columbia (26%, down 1 point from 27%), but are stable in Quebec (30%, down 1 point from 31%). Conversely, the Liberals have gained sharply in Alberta (28%, up 8 points up from 20%) and Ontario (46%, up 5 points 41%), and remained stable in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (29%, unchanged).

• The Conservatives have lost substantial support in Alberta (47%, down 11 points from 58%), and remain stable in Quebec (10%, unchanged). But they have posted gains in all other regions: Atlantic/Canada (36%, up 4 points from 32%); Ontario (29%, up 3 points from 26%); Saskatchewan/Manitoba (31%, up 3 points from 28%); and British Columbia (33%, up 1 point from 32%).

• The NDP have gained ground in Alberta (18%, up 10 points from 8%), Atlantic Canada (18%, up 6 points from 12%) and Quebec (9%, up 1 point from 8%), while they have lost in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (29%, down 5 points from 34%); Ontario (18%, down 3 points from 21%) and British Columbia (26%, down 1 point from 27%).

• Residents of rural areas are significantly more likely to vote Conservative than those living in urban areas (36% vs. 25%). In contrast, those living in urban areas are significantly more likely to vote Liberal than are those living in rural areas (38% vs. 30%).

Conservative Supporters Favour Harper

Among self-identified Conservative supporters, Stephen Harper is the most desired candidate to win the Conservative leadership convention. Half (46%) of Conservative supporters say they want the former leader of the Alliance Party to be the Conservative Party leader. One quarter (26%) of them want former Magna CEO Belinda Stronach to become leader. Tony Clement, the former Ontario cabinet minister, garners support from 17% of Conservative supporters. 11% of Conservative supporters say they `don't know' who they want as leader.

• Stephen Harper's support is based largely in Western Canada, as two thirds of Conservative supporters in Alberta (66%), and six in ten in British Columbia (63%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (58%), throw their support behind Mr. Harper. Compared to one third in Ontario (36%), and one quarter in Quebec (24%) and Atlantic Canada (25%).

• Men are significantly more likely than women to support Stephen Harper (51% vs. 39%).

• Conservative supporters with higher income levels are more inclined to support Mr. Harper (42%
• Belinda Stronach enjoys the most support among Conservative supporters in Quebec (44%), followed by Atlantic Canada (34%), Ontario (26%) and Alberta (26%), than Saskatchewan/Manitoba (19%) and British Columbia (16%).

• Women Conservative supporters are significantly more likely than men to support Belinda as leader (30% vs. 22%).

• Not surprisingly, Tony Clement enjoys his highest levels of support in Ontario (25%), while Atlantic Canada (22%) trails closely. Quebec (16%), British Columbia (12%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (10%) fall in the middle. With Alberta Conservative supporters (5%) offering the lowest levels of support for Mr. Clement.

  Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

  -30-
  
  For more information on this news release, please contact:
  
  Darrell Bricker
  President & COO
  Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
  (416) 324-2900