As Parliment Breaks, No Party Breaks Through

Toronto, ON - As Parliament breaks today for a week amidst rumours that it may soon be prorogued until fall, it is clear that 16 months after the election no party has made substantial progress with voters. For the moment, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives have regained a tenuous lead over the Liberals, according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest and Global TV.

After bringing in a new style of leadership, a set of programs and campaign style attack ads to woo Quebec voters, progressives and possible issue supporters beyond its core, Harper's Conservatives are no further ahead than when they started their government rule. This week finds their national support at 36 percent, a five point increase over last week, but just keeping pace with their 2006 election result.

The same is true of Stephane Dion's Liberals, who have not yet risen from the ashes of their 2006 defeat to mount a credible challenge to Harper's government. At 32 percent national support, the Liberals find themselves just two points beyond their 2006 electoral showing.

Support for the NDP (14%) has declined by three points since the 2006 contest, while the Green Party (7%) shows a slight two-point improvement.

Among the major parties, only the Bloc Quebecois (9% nationally and 36% in Quebec) has experienced a significant change in support, showing a six point decline from their 2006 turn out of 42 percent of the popular vote in Quebec. All in all, it's been a tough season for separatists following the third place showing of the Parti Quebecois in the provincial contest earlier this year.

Seven percent of voters, meanwhile, remain undecided.

It remains to be seen whether Harper's Tories will make progress with the voters this fall when they return with a new Throne Speech and blueprint for governing. For the time being, they continue to tread water along with the others.

After seeing their Western base evaporate last week following the release of their controversial climate change plan, the Conservatives have returned to familiar levels of support in British Columbia, up 14 points to 38 percent (after declining 19 points last week), and in Alberta, up 10 points to 63 percent (after declining 13 points last week). Conservative support has also improved significantly in Atlantic Canada (up 14 points to 38%), while inching up in Quebec (up two points to 26%) and remaining steady in Ontario (up one point to 34%). Conservative support declined in only Saskatchewan and Manitoba since May 10, where their support has declined seven points to 38 percent.

Support for the Liberals, meanwhile, improved by 12 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (33%) and by four points in British Columbia (33%), while remaining unchanged in Quebec (21%). The Liberal take declined by six points in Alberta (19%), four points in Atlantic Canada (41%), and by one point in Ontario (41%).

Support for the NDP declined by eight points in Atlantic Canada (17%), by seven points in British Columbia (23%) , by five points in Quebec (11%) and by two points in Ontario (12%) - erasing the support they gained last week. Only in Alberta did support for the NDP mark improvement, up by a slight two points to 11 percent.

Like the NDP, Green Party support has also slipped this week after broad improvement last week. Since May 10, Green Party support declined by 10 points in British Columbia (6%), by nine points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (6%), by five points in Alberta (6%) and by two points in Quebec (4%). Only in Ontario (up one point to 11%) and Atlantic Canada (up three points to 5%) did the Green Party improve since May 10.

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, grew by four points to 36 percent in Quebec.

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (39%) over the Liberals (30%) by a nine-point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (35%) over the Conservatives (33%) by a two-point margin. The NDP draws higher support among women (17%) than among men (12%), while men tilt towards the Bloc (men, 11%; women, 8%). The Green Party (men, 8%; women, 7%) divides its support equally between men and women.

By age, Conservatives continue enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (44%) and those 35 to 54 years of age (36%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (26%). The Liberals enjoy greater support among Canadians 18 to 34 years of age (36%) than among either those 35 to 54 years of age (31%) or those 55 years and older (31%). The NDP relies on support from those 18 to 34 years of age (15%) and those 35 to 54 years of age (16%), as compared to those 55 years and older (12%), while Green Party divides its support more evenly among those 18 to 34 years of age (9%), those 35 to 54 years (7%) and those 55 years and older (6%). The Bloc Quebecois relies more heavily on respondents 18 to 34 years of age (15%) than among those 35 to 54 years of age (8%) or those 55 years and older (7%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from May 15-17, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,002 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more Information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
416-324-2900
[email protected]

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