THE POLITICAL FALLOUT OF WALKERTON

The Environment Soars Up Public Agenda As Third Most Important Issue (21%) As 64% Say That The Ontario Government's Performance On Environment Is Poor

Toronto, ON - An Angus Reid/Globe and Mail/CFRB poll released today shows that in the fallout from the Walkerton E. Coli water turbulence, the Ontario Liberals (45%) have strengthened their lead over the Conservatives (38%). Nonetheless, the public blames the municipality (49%) instead of the province (28%) for the water debacle. Meanwhile, the environment soars up the public agenda and is now the third most important issue (21%) in the minds of Ontarians and almost two-thirds (64%) say the Ontario government's performance on the environment is poor.

These are the findings of an Angus Reid/Globe and Mail/CFRB poll conducted between June 8th and June 13th 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 1996 Census data.

Ontario Grits (45%) Strengthen Vote Lead Over Ontario Tories (38%) Over Walkerton Turbulence

In the backwash of the Walkerton turbulence over safe drinking water, the Ontario Liberals' lead over the governing Conservatives has widened from 4 points in April 2000 to 7 points. Currently, 45 percent of decided Ontario voters say they would vote for the Ontario Liberal Party if an election were held today versus 38 percent who say they would vote for the Ontario PC Party. The NDP is holding relatively steady at 15 percent.

• Support for the Liberals is highest among 18-34 year olds (50%) and declines with age: 44 percent among 35-54 year olds and 39 percent among those aged 55+.
• Women (52%) are much more likely than men (38%) to support the Liberals.

But Public Blames Municipality (49%) Not Harris Government (28%) For Water Debacle

In the view of nearly a majority (49%) of Ontarians, the municipality/local officials are to blame for the E. Coli contamination in Walkerton's water supply. This compares with only 28 percent who place blame on the provincial government (see table attached: open ended responses).

• Older residents (32%) are more likely than middle aged (29%) or younger (25%) residents to place blame on the province as opposed to the municipality.
• Women (31%) are slightly more likely than men (26%) to blame the province.
• Those with a university education (37%) are more likely than those with some post secondary (27%) or those with a high school education or less (21%) to blame the province.

The Environment Soars Up Public Agenda As Third Most Important Issue (21%) As 64% Say That The Ontario Government's Performance On The Environment Is Poor

In the aftermath of the Walkerton water supply contamination the environment has shot up 13 points and now sits in third place on the public's issue agenda. Currently, the environment is mentioned by 21 percent of Ontarians as the issue which should receive the greatest attention from Ontario's leaders. This compares with data from April 2000 when only 8 percent mentioned the environment as the most important issue. The chart below shows the public's assessment of the importance of the environment since February 1998.

• Older residents (27%) are more likely than middle aged (22%) or younger residents (15%) to mention the environment as the issue which should receive the greatest attention.
• Similarly, those with a university education (24%) are more likely than those with some post secondary (21%) or those with a high school education or less (17%) to mention the environment as the most important issue facing Ontario's leaders.

Against the backdrop of the environment becoming a more important issue in the minds of Ontarians, almost two-thirds (64%) of Ontario residents say the provincial government's performance in the "whole area of the environment in the province of Ontario" is poor. This includes more than one-quarter (27%) who say that the provincial government's performance is "very poor" and almost four in ten (37%) who say that their performance is "fairly poor". In contrast just under one-third (32%) say the Ontario government's performance on this issue is good (3% "very good" and 29% "fairly good").

• Residents in the 35-54 age group (70%) are most likely to say that the provincial government's performance on the environment is poor compared with 59 percent among 18-34 year olds and 63 percent among those aged 55+.
• Similarly, those with a university education (76%) are more likely than those with some post secondary (63%) or those with a high school education or less (55%) to rate the provincial government's performance on this issue as poor.

To view the complete media release please download the PDF file.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Public Affairs
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900