Post Convention Poll Has Grits at 43% (down from pre-convention 46%) as NDP Gains (15%) - Tories (14%), Alliance (10%), Bloc (9%), Green (5%) Trail

Toronto, ONTARIO - On the eve of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties announcing the results of their vote to merge, a new poll shows the Liberals still in the lead but with the NDP now outpacing the Tories and the Alliance. If the merger is approved, it is significant to note that this may be the last poll conducted by Ipsos-Reid reporting them as two separate entities.

The new study conducted in late November, on behalf of the Globe and Mail/CTV, shows overall national support for the Liberal Party of Canada has slightly decreased since the Liberal convention where Paul Martin was named the new leader of the federal Party. Of note are voters in the province of Quйbec where last month the spread between the federal Liberals and the Bloc Quйbйcois was 19 points and now is just 2 points--support for the Liberals has fallen 10 points (from 50% to 40%) since our last sounding and the Bloc Quйbйcois have now moved up 7 points into a virtual tie at 38%.

In contrast, the NDP has moved up in the polls, particularly buoyed by support in the West and a boost in Ontario. Meanwhile, another convention has unsettled voting patterns in various regions as support for the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance wanes.

When asked if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you be most likely to support, four in ten (43%) Canadians say they would support the Liberals under Paul Martin. Moving up in the polls, the NDP at 15% (up 4% since October) have picked up momentum to move into a virtual tie with the Progressive Conservatives who are at 14% (down 1%). The Canadian Alliance at 10% (down 1%) is followed by the Bloc Quйbйcois at 9% nationally (up 7 points to 38% in Quйbec) and 5% for the Green Party.

With so many adjustments to the federal political scene, and as the Canadian electorate start to contemplate new parties under a backdrop of changing leaders, it would appear that some voters are shifting their support, particularly in various provinces and regions.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between November 25th and November 27th, 2003. The telephone survey is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,057 adults. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

While the Liberals still lead, with enough support to form a comfortable majority government, the NDP has increased its support, particularly in the West. Reaction to the Conservative-Alliance merger appears to have caused some decline in fortunes for the Alliance in the West and for the Progressive Conservatives in the Atlantic Provinces.

Some of the key highlights are as follows:

• Support for the Progressive Conservatives is down to 28% (from 35%) in Atlantic Canada while support for the Liberals (50%) and the Green Party (2%) remains virtually static.

• Federal Liberal fortunes in Quйbec have dropped 10 points (from 50% to 40%) as support for the Bloc Quйbйcois has increased from 31% to 38% since the last poll. Since October the gap between the Liberals and the Bloc has drastically diminished falling from 19 to 2 points as the Liberals lose their lead in the province.

• Ontario remains fairly steady with support for the Liberal Party dropping slightly to 52% (down 2 points) with an increase of 6 points in support for the NDP up to 19%.

• The NDP made noteworthy gains in British Columbia moving up 5 points from 14% to 19% and in Saskatchewan/Manitoba where they increased support by 6 points from 28% to 34%.

• Conversely, support for the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance dropped in the West. In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the PCs lost 8 points moving from 18% to 10%. The Alliance lost 4 points in Alberta (from 34% to 30%), and lost 3 points in BC (23% to 20%).

• The Green Party made its biggest gains in Western Canada where it gained 5 points in British Columbia (from 8% to 13%), and 5 points in Alberta (1% to 6%).

There would appear to be no significant socio-economic or demographic differences in the sub-groupings, except where noted below:

• Canadian adults aged 55 or older are the most likely to support the Progressive Conservatives (17%) and the Canadian Alliance (13%), while those aged 18-34 show greater support for the Liberals (44%).

• Canadians who have a University education or higher and earn relatively more annual income are more likely than others support the Liberal party (52% and 46% respectively).

• Those who have attained a lower level of education are more likely to support the Canadian Alliance, while those who earn relatively lower annual income support the NDP and Green parties.

Please open the attached PDF files to view the release and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, Ph.D
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900