POST-DEBATE DEBACLES DERAIL DALTON McGUINTY's LIBERALS

This Angus Reid Group/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone from May 25th to May 27th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 1,000 qualified Ontario voters.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are accurate to within +3.1 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontarian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

Just days before the June 3rd Ontario election, this most recent survey of voters shows that the Mike Harris Progressive Conservatives (45%) appear poised to win a majority government. Dalton McGuinty's Liberals (37%) have lost momentum and voter support since the leaders' debate, whereas Howard Hampton's NDP, though still a distant third, have gained six points in the past two weeks with the party now garnering 18% of the popular vote in Ontario.

Mike Harris is still the provincial leader most likely to be chosen as the best choice for Premier (49%) over the other two leaders. With Liberal leader McGuinty's ratings having dropped ten points to 22% since mid-May. The proportion of Ontarians believing that NDP Leader Howard Hampton would make the best Premier has jumped 8 points in the same time period to 20%.

These are the highlights of the second Ontario 1999 Angus Reid Group/CFRB/Globe and Mail election campaign poll conducted among 1,000 Ontarians between May 25th and May 27th, 1999.

MAJORITY GOVERNMENT FOR HARRIS AND THE PCs

With less than a week left in the 1999 Ontario election campaign, Mike Harris and the PCs (45%) appear poised to win a second majority government. Following the leader's debate, Dalton McGuinty's Liberals have dropped to 37% of decided voters marking a loss of four percentage points in just two weeks. Howard Hampton's NDP (18%) have picked up six points in the same period of time - and have risen above 15% of the decided vote for the first time since the Angus Reid Group's polling of August 1997. A mere 1% of decided voters intend to support "some other party" and nine percent of Ontarians remain undecided.

• Respondents living in Eastern Ontario (52% - up 4 points since mid-May) and the 905 area of the GTA (52% PC - down 9 points since mid-May), are most likely to support the Tories. Strong levels of support for the PCs are also exhibited in the South West (49% - up 4 points), and the Hamilton Niagara region (47% - up 9 points in past two weeks).
• Regionally, those living in the 416 area of the GTA (41% - down 2 points since mid-May) are most likely to support the Liberals. Over the past two weeks, the Liberals have lost significant support in Northern Ontario (36% - down 13 points) and the Hamilton Niagara area (28% - down 9 points).
• Howard Hampton and the NDP have gained in every region across the province since our mid-campaign survey. The highest levels of NDP support are found in Northern Ontario (36% - up 14 points), Hamilton Niagara (24% - up 2 points) and the 416 area of the GTA (23% - up 9 points).

Party support varies dramatically based on demography

• As income increases (Analysis of voter retention rates (voters sticking with the same party choice they made in 1995) in comparison to mid-campaign polling shows that the Liberals have lost a significant proportion of past party supporters (70% from 82%). The PCs have retained three quarters (76%) of past PC supporters - compared to 80% two weeks ago. Howard Hampton's NDP shows the most significant gains in voter retention over the past two weeks with 60% of past supporters intending to vote NDP on June 3rd - compared to 50% in mid-May.

PC Party Support Appears to Have Galvanized Since the Leaders' Debate

• Our analysis shows that PC voters remain the most certain about their present voting decision with 67% saying they are "very certain" to vote PC (up 8 points since mid-May), while 57% (up 7 points) of Liberal voters and 54% of NDP voters (up 10 points) are similarly committed to their party preference.
• More importantly, PC voters now appear as likely as supporters of the other major parties to exercise their franchise on June 3rd. This represents an important change from our mid-campaign survey when it appeared that Tory supporters were less likely to show up on polling day than supporters of their major rivals.

Grits Lose Campaign Momentum while NDP Gets a Puff of Wind in their Sails

Ontarians were asked to rate their impression of each of the Parties and their leaders over the past few days of the campaign. Our net momentum index is calculated based on subtracting the proportion who say their impression has worsened from those who say their impression of a party and their leader has improved. Overall, for the PCs, voters say their impressions have improved (15%), worsened (28%) or stayed the same (56%). This yields a net negative momentum index (-13) for the Harris Tories - basically holding steady with their momentum in our mid-May campaign survey (-14).

The Liberals' momentum has taken a dramatic downturn over the past two weeks with voters saying their impressions have improved (17%), worsened (36%) or stayed the same (45%). This gives the Liberals a net momentum score of -19. This represents a drop of 24 points since Mid-May polling which placed the Liberals with a net score of +5.

For the NDP, voters say their impressions have either improved (35%), worsened (9%) or stayed the same (52%). This gives the NDP a net momentum score of +26. Overall, the NDP has gained 21 points from a score of +5 just two weeks ago.

Mike Harris Would Make Best Premier

Nearly half of Ontarians (49%) believe Mike Harris would make the best Premier of Ontario given the choice between the three main party leaders. Twenty-two percent say Dalton McGuinty would be the best Premier, marking a 10-point drop since mid-May. Howard Hampton is thought to be the best potential Premier by 20% of Ontarians - up 8 points over the past two weeks.

• Every region and major demographic grouping picks Mike Harris over his two rivals as the best leader for Premier. Regionally, Mike Harris is most likely to be chosen as the best Premier by those living in Eastern Ontario (60%), South West Ontario (50%) and Ontarians living in the 905 area of the GTA (55%).
• Ontarians living in the GTA (24%), low-income earners (29%) and women (28%) are the strongest supporters of Dalton McGuinty as the leader who would do the best job as Premier of Ontario.
• Howard Hampton was most likely to be chosen as the leader who would be the best Premier by Northern Ontarians (28%), 35 to 54 year olds (26%) and the university educated (27%).

The Majority of Ontarians (56%) say Harris Would do a Good Job as Premier - McGuinty drops 9 points with 47% Saying He would do a Good Job with Hampton Trailing at 43%

• The majority of Ontarians (56% - unchanged since mid-May) believe Mike Harris would do a good job as Premier if the PCs were re-elected on June 3rd. Dalton McGuinty drops 9 percentage points, as 47% now say he would do a good job. By comparison, two in five Ontarians (43% - up 1 point) think that Hampton would do a good job if the NDP were elected.

For further information, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900