Potential Liberal Majority Gets More Comfortable

Toronto, ON - According to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail survey released today, the federal Liberals appear to be building a more comfortable potential majority government with 38% support of decided voters followed by the Conservatives at 26%, the NDP at 16%, and the Bloc Quebecois with a narrowing lead in Quebec at 41% of decided voters compared to 36% for the Liberals. The Green Party trails the pack with 5% of the national vote. A total of 14% of Canadians are undecided or don't know who they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow.

Overall, while the Liberals have slipped from 40% to 38% nationally since the last Ipsos-Reid poll was conducted April 27-28th, 2004, there have been some regional shifts in voter preferences that have strengthened their seat potential. In the same timeframe, the Conservatives have moved up 3 points from 23% to 26%, the NDP are down 2 points from 18% to 16%, and the Green Party remains static at 5% of decided voters.

The major voter movements since the last sounding appear to be in the province of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba. In Quebec the Liberals have closed the gap on the Bloc Quebecois -- the Liberals now hold 36% of the decided vote (up 3 points) with the Bloc at 41% (down 5 points). The Conservatives trail in a very distant third-place, and the NDP are almost off the electoral radar screen.

In Atlantic Canada the Liberals hold a commanding lead with 54% of the vote (up 7 points) while the Conservatives have dropped 11 points to 19%. The NDP are within range of the Conservatives with approximately 1 in 5 voters.

The Liberals continue to hold a solid lead in Ontario with 48% (down 1 point) of the decided vote compared to 26% for the Conservatives (up 1 point) and 1 in 5 decided voters for the NDP.

In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Conservatives and Liberals are tied at 37% -- the Conservatives have gained 11 points and the Liberals have gained 2 points. The NDP has lost 7 points coming in with approximately 1 in 5 decided voters.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have a commanding lead with 52% of decided voters (up 6 points) compared to the Liberals at 21% (down 10 points). The NDP and Green Party trail with approximately 1 in 7 voters casting their ballots for each.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 34% of the decided vote (up 9 points), the NDP and Liberals are in a dead heat with 1 in 5 decided voters. The Green Party trails with almost 1 in 10 decided voters.

In a projected seat range model prepared exclusively by Ipsos-Reid for The Globe and Mail and CTV the Liberals are now back in solid majority territory with a potential seat range of 160-164 seats (up from 153-157 seats), followed by the Conservatives with a potential of 66-70 seats (static), the NDP with a potential 18-22 seats (down from 19-23 seats), and the Bloc in Quebec with a potential 56-60 seats (down from 58-62 seats). In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons. For explanation of the projected seat range model please visit:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2197

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between May 4th and 6th, 2004. For the telephone survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data. Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900