PQ Pipe Dream: Rest of Canada Blows Away Notion of Open Borders, Joint Passports and Common Currency
if Quebec Separates
If Quebec Separates...
Quebec Premier Pauline Marois suggested that a sovereign Quebec would use the Canadian dollar as its currency, that Quebec citizens could continue to use a Canadian passport, and that the federal government would have no need to set up border crossings to enter Canadian territory. While these are popular ideas within Quebec, Canadians living outside of Quebec have a different take on these ideas:
- Three quarters (73%) of Quebecers `agree' (40% strongly/33% somewhat) that `an independent Quebec would continue to use the Canadian dollar as its currency'. However, just 37% of Canadians in the rest of Canada `agree' (15% strongly/22% somewhat).
- A majority (56%) of Quebecers `agree' (30% strongly/26% somewhat) that `Quebec citizens could continue to use Canadian passports', while few (22%) in the ROC agree with this policy (8% strongly/14% somewhat).
- Seven in ten (69%) Quebecers `agree' (38% strongly/31% somewhat) that `with an independent Quebec, the Canadian Federal government has no need to set up border crossings to enter Canadian territory', while only a minority (42%) of those in the ROC agree (17% strongly/25% somewhat).
The last Quebec referendum, in 1995, asked Quebecers if the province should become sovereign 'after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership.' If another referendum occurs and succeeds based on a 'clear majority', and the rest of Canada negotiates the separation of Quebec, most (69%, down 7 points since 2012) Quebecers believe that `the rest of Canada should negotiate a continuation of some political and economic ties to a separate Quebec'. Conversely, one in three (31%, up 7 points) Quebecers say the rest of Canada `should only negotiate an outright breakup'.
Attitudes in the rest of Canada differ: a majority (56%, down 1 point) of those in the ROC believes Canada should only negotiate an outright breakup, while a minority (44%, up 1 point) says Canada should negotiate some kind of political or economic ties with an independent Quebec.
A Clear Majority...
A federal law, the Clarity Act, says that if there is another referendum, the rest of Canada would be compelled to negotiate the terms of a break-up with Quebec if a 'clear majority' of Quebecers supports separation in the referendum. The meaning of that term, 'clear majority', is not defined. Canadians were asked what they believe constitutes a clear majority.
Just one quarter (24%) of Canadians believe 50% + 1 constitutes a clear majority, down 1 point from 2012. Two in ten (17%, up 6 points) believe 60% constitutes a clear majority, while others believe the threshold is 66% (15%, up 1 point), 75% (20%, up 4 points) or above 75% (24%, down 11 points). In short, most (76%, up 1 point) Canadians, overall, believe the threshold should be at least 60%, including most (63%, down 7 points) Quebecers who believe a "clear majority" is at least 60%, and most (80%) of those in the Rest of Canada (up 4 points).
National Unity in Canada...
Given the recent discussion in the Quebec election about the possibility of another referendum should the PQ form the next government, thinking about the current state of national unity in Canada, two in ten (19%) believe that `Canada is in serious trouble as far as national unity is concerned, to the point that the future of the country is threatened', although this is down 12 points from 1997. One half (50%) believe that `national unity has become weaker recently but it can be strengthened', down 8 points from 1997, while one in three (31%) think that `Canada is as strong today as it ever was', up 21 points from 17 years ago.
- Quebecers are most likely (36%) to believe that Canada's national unity is in trouble, although this is down 10 points from 1997, followed by those living in Atlantic Canada (21%), Alberta (15%), British Columbia (14%), Ontario (12%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (8%).
Thinking about how Canadians, personally, feel about their own attachment to Canada, nine in ten (87%) Canadians `agree' (57% strongly/30% somewhat) that they `feel profoundly attached to Canada', down 2 points from 1997, while one in ten (13%) `disagrees'. Quebecers are least inclined to agree, but still two thirds (68%) agree (35% strongly/34% somewhat) that they feel profoundly attached to Canada, showing a decline of only one point from 1997.
Prospects of a Referendum...
If the Parti Quebecois wins a majority in the upcoming Quebec provincial election, it is unclear when or if a referendum on Quebec separation will occur. However, the party has said they are committed to holding another referendum at some point. Reflecting on this pledge and the recent discussion in the Quebec election, one quarter (26%) of Canadians say that they're `very concerned because it's a real possibility and it could ruin Canada'. Four in ten (38%) are `not very concerned because whatever referendum is held the people of Quebec will vote to stay within the union of Canada'. A similar proportion (36%) says they `really couldn't care less - if Quebec wants out, let them go and the rest of Canada will do very well without them'.
- Quebecers (35%) are most likely to be concerned that a referendum is a real possibility, followed by those living in Atlantic Canada (30%), Ontario (27%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (25%), British Columbia (17%) and Alberta (13%).
- Those in the West - Alberta (47%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (46%) and British Columbia (45%) are most likely to say they couldn't care less and that if Quebec wants to go, let them - while those in Atlantic Canada (34%), Ontario (33%) and Quebec (29%) are least likely to have this attitude.
It appears that a good deal of Canadians are getting fed up with talk of Quebec sovereignty. Four in ten (39%) Canadians `agree' (17% strongly/21% somewhat) that `it is getting to the point where it would be better in the long run if Quebec were to separate from the rest of Canada', while six in ten (61%) `disagree' (33% strongly/28% somewhat). The proportion that agrees is up 13 points from 1997. Those from Saskatchewan and Manitoba (53%) and Alberta (52%) are most likely to agree, while those in British Columbia (45%), Quebec (35%), Ontario (34%) and Atlantic Canada (33%) are least likely to agree. Quebecers are less likely to believe this now (35%) compared to 17 years ago (39%).
The Short end of the Confederation Stick is Shared by All...
More Canadians `agree' (59% -- 16% strongly/43% somewhat, up 16 points from 1997) than `disagree' (41% -- 10% strongly/31% somewhat, down 16 points) that their `province does not get its fair share from confederation'. Interestingly, Quebecers are not the most likely to think so. In fact, a majority of residents of every region in the country agree.
- Residents of Atlantic Canada (69%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (69%) are most likely to agree that their province gets the short end of the stick, with Quebecers (63%, up 7 points from 1997), British Columbians (63%), Albertans (56%) and Ontarians (53%) being less likely to think so.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between March 14th to 19th, 2014 on behalf of CTV News. For this survey, a sample of 1,032 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points had all Canadians adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
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