PQ strengthens lead following leaders' debate

PQ strengthens lead following leaders' debate

PQ (46%) leads Liberals (41%).

But Mario Dumont's ADQ has climbed to 11% of the vote, hurting the Liberals' chance to catch PQ.

73% say Bouchard should work on improving Quebec's position in the Canadian Federation.

The results presented here are taken from a telephone survey of 1,000 Quebec residents, conducted between November 18 and November 23, 1998.

These data are representative of the distribution of the Quebec population along all key demographic variables including Mother Tongue. As well, the distribution of the interviews across the province is representative of the geographic distribution of the population.

A sample of this size is said to be representative of the Quebec voting population +3,1%, 19 times out of 20.

PQ strengthens lead following leaders' debate

- PQ (46%) leads Liberals (41%).

- But Mario Dumont's ADQ has climbed to 11% of the vote, hurting the Liberals' chance to catch PQ.

- 73% say Bouchard should work on improving Quebec's position in the Canadian Federation.

This latest survey shows Lucien Bouchard's Parti Quebecois at 46%, Jean Charest's Liberals at 41%, and Mario Dumont's ADQ at 11%. Undecided voters represent 5% of our sample, while 2% say they would vote for "other parties". (See Table 1)

Specific demographic strengths for the two main parties are as follows:

PQ

• Voters in the middle age group (35-54 years of age), 55%
• Males, 48%
• Francophones, 54%

Liberal

• Older voters (55 years of age or older), 60%
• Women, 43%
• Anglophones, 98%
• Allophones, 76%

When looking at the regions, the Liberals are ahead of the PQ on the Island of Montrйal (55% Liberal, 37% PQ and 7% ADQ), while the Parti Quйbйcois leads in both the Greater Montreal Area/450 area code (51% PQ, 32% Liberal, 16% ADQ) and in the rest of the province (49% PQ, 38% Liberal and 12% ADQ). (see Table 1A)

Part of the change in voting intentions is probably due to Quebecers' assessment of "who won the debate". In total 32% believed Mario Dumont won the debate, compared to 31% for Lucien Bouchard, 16% for Jean Charest, while 21% of respondents simply were not sure. (see Table 4A).

Bouchard Viewed As Best Leader Over Jean Charest

When asked to select who has the necessary qualities to lead Quebec after the next election, Quebecers prefer Lucien Bouchard (57%) over Jean Charest (37%). These figures show an increase of 7% for Premier Bouchard since our November 12, 1998 survey, and a decrease of 4% for Mr. Charest. These data suggest higher voter turnout works to the PQ's advantage (see Table 2).

Certainty of Vote and Momentum Indicators

Overall, 79% of respondents say they are either very certain (59%) or somewhat certain (20%) of the party they will support on November 30. Given the low number of "undecideds" and this firmness of support current voting patterns appear to be relatively stable. Looking at the individual parties, the Liberal vote (66% very certain) is as solid than PQ support (63% very certain).

Finally, only 30% of ADQ supporters are very certain they will vote for the ADQ, a figure which should be kept in mind on election as a proportion current ADQ supporters may be tempted to revert back to the two main parties (Table 3).

The debate has had an impact on all three parties' momentum scores. In our November 12, 1998 survey, both leading parties were slightly in the negative figure, leaving only Mr. Dumont in the positive. Since the debate, the Liberals now show an ever higher deficit (- 12), while the PQ has jumped into positive figures (+ 6). Based on momentum scores, the ADQ appears to have caught fire, with a score of + 67. (see Table 4)

Since the ADQ vote is "softer", where would current ADQ supporters go? In total, 52% would go to the Parti Quйbйcois, compared to 28% for the Liberals. This suggests that movement on the part of "soft" ADQ supporters would not be significantly in favour of the Liberals, as some have suggested. (see Table 3A)

Taken together, these data suggest that the PQ vote is stable but could still be vulnerable to voter turnout on the night of the election. These figures also suggest that the ADQ should be taken seriously, as Quebecers continue to react positively to Mr. Dumont's performance in the campaign.

The Paradox - We Want Bouchard to Renew the Federation, But Do Not Think He Will Try

When asked to choose between two options as to what premier should do if he were to be re-elected, 73% say he should "try to improve Quebec's position in the Canadian federation", while 24% believe he should rather 171start working on establishing the winning conditions necessary for a referendum on sovereignty". Responses were almost the opposite when respondents were asked to say what they think he will in fact do, as 64% say he will "start working on establishing the winning conditions", while 32% said he will "try to improve Quebec's position in the Canadian federation". (see Table 5)

Overall, 51% of respondents believe Premier Bouchard has been clear on the meaning of the winning conditions necessary to hold a referendum on sovereignty, compared to 48% who feel he has not been clear. (see Table 6)

When it comes to the Liberal platform on the Constitution, 45% of respondents believe Mr. Charest has been clear on his party's platform, as opposed to 54% who believe he has not. (see Table 7)

Presented with the scenario of a Liberal win on November 30, respondents were asked their view on what Jean Charest should do relative to constitutional issues. In total, 47% believed "he should put pressure on the rest of Canada to start constitutional negotiations" while 49% would prefer Mr. Charest to simply "leave the constitution aside for a few years". (see Table 8)

If a referendum on sovereignty-partnership had been held at the time of this survey, 47% of decided voters would have voted YES, while 53% would have voted NO. (see Table 9)

Either a sovereignty-partnership (37%) or a decentralized federation (26%) would be the ideal political system in the minds of Quebecers, followed by the current federal system (18%) or Quebec independence (16%). (see Table 10)

Finally, 63% of respondents believe it is "possible to renew the federation in a way that satisfies both Quebec and the rest of Canada", while 35% feel this is "impossible". (see Table 11)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
Executive Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900