Provincial Political Scene In Alberta, The Alberta Public Agenda

With a provincial election call perhaps only days away, the Klein Tories continue to hold a strong lead on other electoral competitors in Alberta, according to the most recent Southam News/Angus Reid Group survey. The poll found that support for the provincial Progressive Conservatives has remained strong since being elected in October 1993. The late-January survey also found that in addition to the provincial government's record, the dominant issues on voters' minds are health care, jobs, and education.

These results were gleaned from a Southam News/Angus Reid Group telephone survey conducted between January 17 and 25, 1997, with a random cross-section of 801 adult residents of the province.

THE PROVINCIAL POLITICAL SCENE

Currently in Alberta, the Progressive Conservatives hold 63% of the decided vote, well ahead of the Liberals with 24%, the New Democrats 11%, and other parties with 3%. These figures are largely consistent with our November 1996 poll results, although the Progressive Conservatives have dropped slightly, while the Liberals have seen a nominal increase in support. (See Table 1)

A majority of Albertans support the PCs throughout the entire province, although the strongest pockets of PC support are found outside of the capital, particularly in Southern Alberta (73%). (See Table 2a, Table 2b)

Less than one-in-five Albertans are currently undecided about who they will support (16%).

Ralph Klein is by far the most popular provincial leader, with 65% of the province voicing approval for his performance as Premier, a slight drop since our last assessment in November 1996, when Mr. Klein reached 70% approval. Grant Mitchell's performance is rated positively by over one-third (35%) of the province, although a larger proportion (49%) state disapproval for the Grit leader. New Democrat leader, Pam Barrett, continues to hold support from one-third (32%) of Albertans, although a sizeable portion of the electorate is still uncertain about her performance as ND leader (37%). (See Table 3)

Support for the Klein government's performance has remained consistently above 60 percent since August 1994, and our January survey finds nearly seven-in-ten (69%) Albertans voicing approval of the government's overall performance. Support for the government is highest outside of urban centres, and was lowest in Edmonton (62%). (See Table 4)

ALBERTA ISSUE AGENDA

Health care remains the dominant issue on the public agenda in Alberta, with over one-half (52%) of Albertans mentioning health care spontaneously as the most pressing concern, ahead of Jobs (32%), education (26%), and the deficit (16%). (See Table 5)

Spontaneous mentions of concern about the deficit are at the lowest point ever, at 16%, down from 45% mentions in March 1995 when deficit concerns dominated the agenda.

Health care dominates the agenda across all demographic groups in the province, however it is mentioned in higher proportions in Calgary than elsewhere (61% vs 52% provincially) and among females (58% vs. 46% for men) and older Albertans (58% for those 55 or over vs. 48% for Albertans 18-34 years of age). (See Table 6)

Commenting on the survey, Bruce Cameron, Senior Vice President of the Angus Reid Group noted:

"The provincial Tories are approaching the upcoming election with a sizeable lead in voter support over the Liberals, in large part due to Klein's personal popularity. The Premier's popularity has remained strong despite widespread concern about health care and decreasing concern about deficit reduction".

This Alberta-wide Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between January 17th and 25th, 1997 among a random and representative sampling of 801 adult Albertans.

With a sample of 801, one can say with 95% certainty that the results are within ±3.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Alberta population been survey. The margin of error is higher for sub-samples.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Marc Henry
Senior Research Manager
Angus Reid Group
(403) 237-0066