PULSE OF TORONTO
These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Toronto population according to the 1996 Census data. With a sample of 400, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +5.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Toronto population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.
PULSE OF TORONTO
- 6 in 10 say government right to order teachers back to work, but equal numbers say they should retain right to strike
- Blame spread around for strike situation, but Ontario government takes the brunt
- Majorities indicate that that government and teachers are not clashing over quality education but over money and working conditions
- Provincial Liberals still lead in Toronto, but give up ground to the NDP
- While Tories still in second place with 31% of support, 44% say they deserve to be re-elected (50% say it's time for someone else to govern)
While Torontonians support government's decision to send striking teachers back to work, 3 in 5 (60%) indicate that teachers should have the right to strike
Three in five (58%) Torontonians disagree with the assertion that the Ontario government did the wrong thing by enacting back to work legislation to send striking and locked out teachers back to work. Alternately, two in five (38%) indicate that that the government did the wrong thing by legislating striking teachers back to work. Despite of this endorsement for the government's actions, the same proportion (60%) indicates that teachers should continue to have the right to strike.
In spite of this support for legislating teachers back to work, three in five (60%) Torontonians still believe that teachers should have the right to strike. Younger Torontonians (66% among those between 18 and 34 years) and men (64%) are more likely to agree that teachers should have the right to strike than other respondents.
Neither the teachers nor the government are in it for quality education, but government takes brunt of the blame for recent strikes
Neither the teachers nor the government have convinced Torontonians that they are motivated by genuine concern for the quality of education when it comes to their motives behind school restructuring. In particular 59 percent of Torontonians agree with the assertion that the government is more concerned about making cuts to the education system than they are about improving the quality of education in the province. In addition, only 41 percent agree that that the real reason teachers went on strike is that they are more concerned about the quality of education in the province than they are about their own salaries and working conditions.
In addition, respondents were asked to think about the recent strikes and lockouts at various schools in the GTA, and asked who they blame most for what happened - the Ontario government, the teachers' unions or the individual school boards. The plurality blames the Ontario government (40%). In addition, one-third (34%) blame the teachers' unions and one in five (18%) blame individual school boards. Torontonians between 18 and 34 (48%) and women (45%) are most likely to blame the province while the proportion blaming the unions and the boards is consistent across generation lines and regardless of gender. Two in five (44%) indicate that Ontario unions just want to fight the government
Two in five (44%) Torontonians indicate that Ontario's unions just want to fight the government no matter what the government does. Half (52%) disagree with the statement that unions just want to fight the government no matter what it does.
Work for welfare not succeeding in Toronto
Torontonians were asked if they agreed or disagreed that the Ontario government's Work for Welfare program is succeeding in Toronto. Only one-third (32%) of Torontonians agreed with this statement; an additional two in five (44%) percent disagreed.
It would appear that the program has a better reputation among younger respondents. In particular, respondents between 18 and 34 years (40%) are almost twice as likely as respondents over 55 years (23%) to indicate that the program is succeeding in Toronto. In addition, men (36%) are more likely to believe that the Work for Welfare program has been a success in Toronto than women (28%).
Liberals lose ground in Toronto, NDP gain
The battleground for voters in Toronto remains the terrain of the provincial Liberals (46%). The Conservatives hold onto second place (31%) and the NDP are well behind at 17 percent. However, the Liberals lead in Toronto is tenuous, as they have suffered losses that appear to benefit the NDP.
While the Liberals remain ahead of the Tories in the new city of Toronto, they have dropped 5 percentage points since the last Pulse of Toronto Poll was conducted last fall. In the last Pulse of Toronto Poll the Liberals held 51% of the vote in Toronto. The Liberals appear to be losing ground to the NDP who has ameliorated its standing by 5 percentage points since last fall (12% in the last Pulse of Toronto Poll). At 31 percent of support among decided voters, the Tories fall short of the levels that they achieve across the entire province (41% in September). However, they have not suffered any losses since the last Pulse of Toronto Poll in the fall of '97 (31%).
Room to grow
While the Harris government appears to have a well of good faith to tap into, Toronto voters are slightly more sour toward the governing Tories than Ontarians as a whole. Respondents were read two position statements about their views on the Tories' record and hopes for re-election and asked to indicate which was closest to their point of view. While 31 percent indicate that they would cast a ballot for the governing Tories if an election were held tomorrow, 44 percent indicate that the Harris government has accomplished a lot of good in the province they have stayed true to their word and deserve to be re-elected. Alternately, half (50%) of Toronto residents indicate that the Harris government has done a bad job and it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province. When Ontarians were asked a similar question provincially, a slightly higher degree of good will toward the Tories emerges (49% feel that they have done a good job and deserve re-election and only 45% indicate that it's time for another party to run the province).
While these data indicate that despite a second place finish in the city of Toronto the Tories have amassed a reservoir of good-will that might translate into votes, it appears that the Tories' chances for electoral success are slightly higher outside the new city of Toronto.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900
