PULSE OF TORONTO - PART 2

- PULSE OF TORONTO - PART 2

- 4 in 10 (43%) report higher wages, but almost as many (38%) say their disposable income has decreased over past 2 or 3 years - - 54% say "it is harder to make ends meet nowadays", with 54% saying taxes are higher - - while majority (77%) claim Y2K exagerated, 19% stock up on food, 16% remove cash, 11% water -

This Angus Reid/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone on October 25th and 26th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 400 residents of the new city of Toronto.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Toronto population according to the 1996 Census data. With a sample of 400, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +4.9 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Toronto population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

This Angus Reid Group/CFRB/Globe and Mail Pulse of Toronto Poll shows that despite more than four in ten (43%) Toronto residents reporting that they are earning higher wages than 2 or 3 years ago, the majority (53%) believe that "it is harder to make ends meet nowadays". Indeed, the majority (54%) believe they are paying higher taxes than they did in recent years and many (38%) indicate that their disposable income has decreased. However, a feeling of overall economic optimism is evident as three quarters (75%) of respondents indicate that "now is a good time for Toronto consumers to make major purchases" and four in ten (38% - up 7 points since 1998) indicate that their personal financial situation is better than 2 or 3 years ago.

Finally, nearly eight in ten (77%) believe that the Year 2000 computer problem has been exaggerated. Nonetheless, 16% say they will remove money from the bank and 3% say they will make sure their banking information is updated to avoid problems that may arise due to the Y2K computer problem.

These are the primary findings of a poll undertaken by the Angus Reid Group on behalf of CFRB and the Globe and Mail. The poll was conducted on October 25th and 26th, 1999 among a randomly selected sample of 400 residents of the new city of Toronto and has an associated margin of error of +4.9 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Despite 43% reporting higher wages than 2 or 3 years ago, the majority (53%) say "it is harder to make ends meet nowadays"

Four in ten (43%) residents of Toronto report that they are earning higher wages than 2 or 3 years ago. One third (32%) are earning "about the same" amount, while only 14% say they earn less today than 2 or 3 years ago.

• Not surprisingly, younger respondents (18 to 34, 61%) and high-income earners (over $60k, 56%) are most likely to report a recent wage or salary increase.
  
• Men (49%) are more likely than women (38%) to indicate they have received a wage or salary increase recently.

However, the majority (53%) of Toronto residents believe that "it is harder to make ends meet". The remaining 47% do not believe that it is getting harder to make ends meet.

• Crosstabulations demonstrate that women (58%), those with high school education or less (71%) and low-income (78%) and middle-income (56%) groups to a lesser degree, and those between the ages of 35 and 54 (59%) - are most likely to agree that it is "getting harder to make ends meet".

The majority (54%) say they are paying more taxes than 2 or 3 years ago

The majority (54%) of Toronto residents believe that "the total amount of municipal, provincial and federal taxes that they pay today is higher than it was 2 or 3 years ago". Another 30% believe that the total amount of taxes they pay is about the same. Merely 12% actually believe their taxes have decreased in recent years.

• Respondents aged 18 to 34 (61%), women (58%), those with a high school education or less (68%) and those in households earning more than $60k (57%) are the most likely to believe their taxes have increased.
• Torontonians over 55 years old (20%), and those earning less than $30k (19%) are most likely to report that the amount of tax they pay is lower than 2 or 3 years ago.

In fact, 4 in 10 (38%) indicate that their disposable income has decreased, and 72% say their personal debt has stayed the same or increased in the last 2 or 3 years

Many (38%) respondents indicate that their disposable income has decreased. Another third (34%) say it has not changed over the same period of time. Less than three in ten (27%) say their disposable income has increased.

• Again, the young (39%), men (31%), the university educated (30%) and those earning more than $60k (40%) are most likely to report an increase in disposable income.

Not only is disposable income, for the most part staying at the same levels or lessening, seven in ten (72%) say their "personal debt, such as credit card bills, bank loans or mortgages" is the same or higher as 2 or 3 years ago.

Overall economic optimism evident as three quarters (75%) of respondents indicate "now is a good time for Toronto consumers to make major purchases"

Overall, an economic optimism is evident, as three quarters (75%) of respondents believe "now is a good time for Toronto consumers to make major purchases". There may be some caution as only 10% indicate that now is a "very good time to make a major purchase", while 65% say now is a "good time". A mere 2% believe now is a "very poor time to make a major purchase". Another 19% said it was a "poor" time to make these types of purchases.

And, four in ten (38% - up 7 points since 1998) indicate that their personal financial situation is better than 2 or 3 years ago

When asked about the state of their current financial situation, four in ten (38% - up 7 points since 1998) indicate that their personal financial situation is better than 2 or 3 years ago. The same proportion believe their personal finances are about the same(41%), while 22% indicate their financial situation is worse than 2 or 3 years ago.

• The young (18 to 34, 50%), men (46%), those with a university education (45%) and high-income earners (50%) are most likely to report a better financial situation.

Seven in ten (70%) say personal investment is about the same or higher than in recent past

Seven in ten (70%) of respondents indicate that "the amount of money they put into savings or other investments, including RRSPs is higher (32%) or about the same (38%) as two or three years ago.

• Again, those who are most likely to say their personal finances are better are also most likely to have a higher level of investment savings than 2 or 3 years previously.

Nearly eight in ten (77%) believe that the Year 2000 computer problem has been exaggerated

Finally, nearly eight in ten (77%) believe that the Year 2000 computer problem has been exaggerated. Nonetheless, 16% say they will remove money from the bank and 3% say they will make sure their banking information is updated to avoid problems that may arise due to the Y2K computer problem. Toronto residents indicate they are also going to "stock up on food" (19%), store water (11%), have alternative energy sources available (7%) in order to "prepare for any problems that might occur because of the Year 2000 computer bug.

In fact, when asked whether the "year 2000 computer problem could cause the end of civilization as we know it", 95% disagree. Most (89%) also disagree that "the Year 2000 computer problem is going to cause widespread problems with supplies of water, food and electricity in Canada". Respondents are equally as likely (86%) to disagree that the Y2K problem could "cause accidental launches of nuclear missiles somewhere in the world".

Despite feeling that the world will not come to an end - 95% disagreed that Y2K could cause the "end of civilization" - over one third (36%) of respondents are not planning to travel on January 1, 2000 "in order to avoid any problems caused by the Year 2000 computer problem". For further information contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900
John Wright