Quebec Liberal Lead Grows (37% Vs. 28% PQ) in Final Stretch

Toronto, ON - Heading into the home stretch of the Quebec Election campaign, the Liberal lead over the PQ has grown to 9 points among Quebecers - and 12 points among those who are most likely to show up at the ballot box - according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CTV News.

Following two raucous debates which showed front-runner Couillard come under the most fire as Premier Marois attempted to change the channel away from the prospect of a referendum under a PQ government, the poll suggests that if the Quebec election were to be held tomorrow, the Quebec Liberals under Philippe Couillard would receive 37% of the vote among decided voters (unchanged), while the Parti Quebecois and Premier Pauline Marois would receive 28% of the vote (down 4 points).

The Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) led by Francois Legault would receive 19% of the vote (up 3 points), while Quebec Solidaire and Francoise David would garner 13% support (up 3 points). Sol Zonatti and Option Nationale would receive 1% of the vote (down 1 point). Two percent (2%) of Quebecers would vote for some other party, including the Green Party (down 1 point), while 7% remain undecided.

Among those who completed the survey in French, the Liberals (31%) and PQ (31%) are in a dead heat, with the CAQ (21%), Solidaire (14%), and some other party (2%) lagging behind. Among those who completed the survey in English, the Liberals (83%) have a commanding lead over the PQ (3%), CAQ (4%), Solidaire (6%), Option Nationale (1%) and others (3%).

Liberals Receive a Boost Among Committed Voters to Show at Ballot Box...

When examining the data among the 72% of Quebecers who say that `nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote', the Liberal vote strengthens to 40%, while the other parties lag: PQ (28%), CAQ (18%), and Solidaire (12%).

Liberal Voters Most Committed To Their Party...

Three in ten Quebecers (28%) say that their vote is still up for grabs, indicating that `it is still moveable depending on what happens in the rest of the campaign'. This compares to seven in ten (72%) who say they will `stick with this party and leader no matter what'.

But supporters of each party differ in their resolve - and the Liberals have the upper hand in this regard. Eight in ten (81%) Liberal voters are committed to vote for the Liberal Party no matter what, compared to 78% of PQ supporters, 57% of CAQ supporters, 57% of Solidaire supporters and 46% of Option Nationale voters.

CAQ Most Popular Second Choice (33%), Well Ahead of Other Parties...

As with most elections heading into the final week before Election Day, the opportunity for change still exists especially with the CAQ being the most-popular second-choice among Liberal-leaning voters. A late campaign surge that pulls Liberal voters to the CAQ could diminish the aggregate Liberal lead with the PQ being the net beneficiaries.

Fully one in three (33%) Quebecers would vote for the CAQ as their second choice, well ahead of the 21% who would vote Solidaire, 11% for the PQ, 10% for the Liberals, 6% for Option Nationale and 19% for some other party.

While just 4% of Liberal voters would vote PQ second, over half (56%) would vote for the CAQ and 11% would choose Solidaire as their second choice.

Conversely, 5% of PQ voters would vote Liberal as their second choice, but 43% would vote Solidaire and 31% would vote CAQ second.

If CAQ support slips, it will benefit the Liberals (36%) as second choice more than the PQ (26%), and if Solidaire support slips it will benefit the PQ (33%) as second choice significantly more than the Liberals (9%).

The bottom line appears clear: for the PQ to close to the gap, they need to woo Solidaire voters while driving squeamish Liberal voters to the CAQ.

Couillard Bests Marois, Legault as Best Premier...

Thinking about who would make the best Premier of Quebec, one in three (33%) would choose Liberal leader Philippe Couillard, who edges both PQ leader Pauline Marois (25%) and CAQ leader Francois Legault (25%). One in ten (13%) believe Quebec Solidaire leader Francoise David would make the best premier, while 3% choose Green Party leader Alex Tyrrell.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between March 28th and April 1st, 2014 on behalf of CTV News. For this survey, a sample of 1,012 Quebecers from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points had all adults in Quebec been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Luc Durand
President, Quebec
Ipsos
514.904.4344
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

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