Race Tightens as Summer Heats Up

Toronto, ON - As Canadians enjoy the balmy weather and hot summer sun this Canada Day weekend, the Ontario provincial election race tightens, with levels of support for the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives drawing closer to each other. A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television finds that the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty have the support of 39% of Ontarians, while John Tory's Progressive Conservatives are hot on their trail with the support of 36% of Ontarians.

Representing a spread of three percentage points, control of the government benches in Ontario could be up for grabs when Ontarians go to the polls in October. The New Democratic Party under Howard Hampton has the support of 17% of Ontarians, while support for the Green Party under Frank de Jong is holding steady at 7%. With no party receiving 40% of the vote, the threshold which is typically the dividing line between majority and minority governments, Ontarians might be facing the possibility of a minority government in the provincial legislature. With a minority government in Ottawa, and Quebecers recently electing a minority in la belle province, it appears as though many Canadians are unable to escape the unpredictability and tension that is closely associated with this type of scenario.

A majority of Ontarians (52%) agree that it is `time for another provincial party to take over' in Toronto, while just over one third (36%) believe that `the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election'. However, there exists a significant portion of Ontarians who are likely to be swayed, with one in nine (11%) not yet knowing with which sentiment they most closely identify.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from June 19 to June 28, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 801 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.

Race Tightens As Summer Heats Up...

As Ontarians endure the hot and hazy weather of summertime, Ontario's political landscape continues to heat up with the Ontario Liberal Party receiving the support of 39% of Ontarians, and the Progressive Conservative Party closing in at 36%. The NDP is trailing behind at 17% support, while the Green Party is holding steady at 7% support. With the two front-runners showing comparable levels of support, the government benches are up for grabs when Ontarians head to the polls in October. But whichever government Ontarians choose, they should be prepared for a minority situation.

Analysis By Region...

The race is even tighter in the Greater Toronto Area. The Progressive Conservatives have the support of 39% of Ontarians living in the GTA, while the Liberals have the support of 38% of Ontarians living in the GTA.

• Outside of the GTA, the Liberals have a larger lead, with 39% indicating that they would support the Liberals, while the Tories have the support of 34%.
• In Central Ontario, the Liberals have 41% support, while the PCs have 36% support.
• In Eastern Ontario, the Liberal and Progressive Conservatives each have 39% support.
• In South-western Ontario, the Liberals have 38% support, while the PCs have 36% support.
• In Northern Ontario, the Progressive Conservatives are trailing far behind. The Liberals are in the lead with 38% support, with the New Democratic Party being in second-place at 32%. The Progressive Conservatives have the support of only 21% of Northern Ontarians.

Those Most Likely To Support The Liberals...

Below is an analysis indicating those who are more likely to support the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty:

• Women (42%) are more likely than men (36%) to support the Liberals.
• Younger Ontarians, aged 18 to 34, are more likely to support the Liberals (42%) than middle-aged (38%), 35 to 54, or older Ontarians (37%), 55 and older.
• Those with a university degree are most likely (45%) to support the Liberals, compared to those with some post-secondary education (38%) or only a high school diploma or less (30%).

Those Most Likely To Support The Progressive Conservatives...

Below is an analysis indicating those who are more likely to support the Progressive Conservatives under John Tory:

• Men (42%) are more likely than women (31%) to support the PCs.
• Older Ontarians, aged 55 and older, are more likely (40%) to support the Progressive Conservatives than middle-aged Ontarians (36%), aged 35 to 54, or younger Ontarians (31%), aged 18 to 34.
• Those without any post-secondary education (45%) are more likely to support the PCs than those with some post-secondary education (38%) or a university degree (29%).

Majority (52%) Believe It's Time For A Change...

When presented with two differing opinions of the McGuinty government, a majority (52%) of Ontarians agree that `it is time for another provincial party to take over' in Toronto. On the other hand, just over one third (36%) of Ontarians believe that the `McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election'. One in nine (11%) do not know with which statement they most closely associate.

These numbers have shifted slightly in the past two months, with Ontarians becoming less inclined to have an opinion of the McGuinty government one way or another. Perhaps Ontarians are waiting to pass judgement until they become more informed of the successes and failures of the McGuinty government, as a result of the election campaign.

• 45% of Ontarians with a university degree believe that the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected; however, 45% of Ontarians with a university degree also believe that it is time for change in Ontario. This demographic group is more likely than any other group studied to have this favourable appraisal of the McGuinty government.
• Ontarians aged 18 to 34 are more likely (40%) than Canadians aged 35 and older (35%) to indicate that the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election.
• Residents of Eastern Ontario are most likely (40%) of all regions to believe that the McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected. For example, less than one third (32%) of those in South-western Ontario believe the same.
• Residents of Northern Ontario are most likely to claim that it is time for another provincial party to take over (62%).
• Middle-aged Canadians are more likely (55%) than younger Canadians (49%) or older Canadians (52%) to agree that it is time for another provincial political party to take over.

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For more Information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2902
[email protected]

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