Race Tightens To A Virtual Tie

Toronto, ON- During a week of feuding on the environment with Al Gore and questions about Canada's handling of Taliban detainees in Afghanistan, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives have dipped to just below their 2006 electoral result, according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest and Global TV.

The survey finds that 35% of Canadians would support the Conservatives if a federal election were held today compared to 34% for the Liberals. This result places the Conservative's one point behind their 36% turnout during the 2006 election, while the Liberals look four points better than their 2006 electoral result. The NDP (14%), Bloc Quebecois (9% nationally and 35% in Quebec) and the Green Party (7%) each remain consistent with their results from the past month of polling.

The Grits benefit from higher support in most regions this week, particularly in populous Ontario where the Liberals (44%) enjoy a significant 10-point advantage over the Conservatives (34%). For their part, the Conservatives have declined by six points in Ontario (34%) and by five points in Quebec (20%). The Bloc Quebecois (35%) have absorbed most of the Tory decline in Quebec, improving their fortunes by four points over the past week, while the Liberals (25%) have eclipsed the Conservatives as the federalist option in that province.

These results show continuing volatility among the electorate with little that resembles an election-worthy advantage for any party.

Since April 26, Conservative support has dropped by six points in Ontario (34%), five points in Quebec (20%) and four points in British Columbia (43%). The Conservatives have improved by 10 points in Atlantic Canada (32%) and by four points in their Alberta stronghold (66%), while holding steady at 46% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Over the past week the Liberals have gained by 10 points in Alberta (20%), by four points in each of Ontario (44%) and British Columbia (32%) and by three points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (25%). The Grits remain stable in Quebec (25%), where they have grown by one point, and in Atlantic Canada (43%), where they have declined by one point.

Support for the NDP has grown by a modest two points in Quebec (14%) and by one point in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (22%), with no change in either British Columbia (15%) or Ontario (13%). NDP support has declined by four points in both Atlantic Canada (18%) and Alberta (7%).

Green Party support has improved by a slight two points in Ontario (9%) and by one point in British Columbia (10%), while dipping by one point in Atlantic Canada (43%) and dropping by three points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (8%) and by eight points in Alberta (7%).

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, have improved by four points to 35% in Quebec.

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (39%) over the Liberals (30%) by a 9-point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (38%) over the Conservatives (31%) by a seven-point margin. The NDP draws higher support among women (15%) than among men (13%), while the Bloc (men, 9%; women, 9%) and Green Party (men, 8%; women, 7%) divide their support more equally between men and women.

By age, Conservatives enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (47%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (20%). Conversely, the Liberals enjoy greater support among those 18 to 34 years old (39%) than among those 55 years and older (31%). Support for the NDP (18%), Bloc Quebecois (13%) and Green Party (10%) depends heavily on younger respondents as older respondents are less likely to support each of these options.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from May 1-3, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more Information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
416-324-2900
[email protected] For full tabular results, please visit our website www.ipsos.ca. News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/.

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Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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