Reputation Matters: Half and Half

Toronto, ON - A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global National has revealed that even after two and a half years of governing, only one in three (36%) Canadians `agrees' (14% strongly/21% somewhat) that `it's unfair to say that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have a hidden agenda'. On the flip side, fully one half (50%) `disagrees' (26% strongly/24% somewhat) with this notion, suggesting that they believe the Prime Minister still might not be sharing his full plans with the public, particularly if he wins a majority government. Fifteen percent (15%) of Canadian's don't know what to think about this.

Furthermore, one half (50%) `agrees' (30% strongly/20% somewhat) that `electing Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to a majority government would be like electing US President George Bush as our Prime Minister'. Four in ten (38%) `disagree' (23% strongly/15% somewhat) with this statement, and 12% are unsure.

Despite the Prime Minister's schooling as an economist, only one in three (35%) Canadians `agree' (15% strongly/20% somewhat) that `if you want a party and leader that can deliver steady leadership in tough economic times, you should vote for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives'. In fact, a majority (52%) `disagrees' (31% strongly/21% somewhat) and 13% don't know.

Examining attitudes concerning his chief rival, Stephane Dion, one half (48%) of Canadians `agree' (27% strongly/21% somewhat) that `electing Stephane Dion and the Liberals would be too big a risk for Canada'. Four in ten (38%) `disagree' (17% strongly/20% somewhat) that electing Dion as Prime Minister would be too big a risk, while 14% don't know if this would be the case or not.

Things don't get much better for Mr. Dion either. Despite vehemently trying to sell his green shift plan and attempts to position himself as the most credible candidate on the environment and as a sound fiscal manager, only three in ten (30%) `agree' (10% strongly/20% somewhat) that `if you want a party and leader who is a true team player, and has the right ideas on the economy and the environment, you should vote for Stephane Dion and the Liberals'. A majority (55%) `disagrees' (34% strongly/20% somewhat), and sixteen percent (16%) don't know what to think about this.

These are the results of a poll conducted from September 9 to September 11, 2008. This online survey of 1016 Canadian adults was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The results are based on a sample where quota sampling and weighting are employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data. Quota samples with weighting from the Ipsos online panel provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. An unweighted probability sample of this size, with a 100% response rate, would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire adult population in Canada been polled.

Regional Differences...

Stephen Harper

• Albertans (54%) are most likely to think it is unfair to say that Stephen Harper and the Conservative have a hidden agenda, followed by those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (40%), British Columbia (36%), Ontario (34%), Quebec (33%) and Atlantic Canada (24%).
• Six in ten (58%) Albertans believe that people who want steady leadership through tough economic times should vote for Harper. Those living in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (41%), Quebec (34%), British Columbia (33%), Ontario (32%) and Atlantic Canada (21%) are much less likely to think this.
• A majority of Canadians living in Atlantic Canada (58%), Quebec (57%) and British Columbia (51%) think that electing Harper to a majority government would be like electing George Bush as our Prime Minister. One half (50%) of Ontarians believe this, while fewer Albertans (38%) and residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (27%) think this.

Stephane Dion

• A majority of those living in Alberta (64%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (54%), and, interestingly, Quebec (51%), think that electing Dion and the Liberals to power in Ottawa would be too big a risk for Canada. A minority of British Columbians (49%), Atlantic Canadians (44%) and Ontarians (42%) would agree with this notion.
• Ontarians (37%) are the most likely to believe that Canadians should vote for Stephane Dion and the Liberals if they want a party and leader who is a true team player, and has the right ideas on the economy and the environment. Those in Atlantic Canada (29%), Quebec (27%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (27%), British Columbia (24%) and Alberta (20%) are less likely to think so.

Jack Layton

• Residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (43%) are most likely to believe that, if you want a party and leader who would act on the priorities at the kitchen table instead of the boardroom table, they should vote for Jack Layton and the NDP. Ontarians (36%), Quebecers (36%) Atlantic Canadians (36%), British Columbians (34%) and Albertans (22%) are less likely to share this opinion.

For more election commentary, please visit our blog at: http://election.globaltv.com/blogs.aspx

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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