September 2007 BC Provincial Political Scene

Vancouver, BC - A new Ipsos Reid poll shows provincial voter support in British Columbia basically unchanged over the last three months. The BC Liberals (46%, up 1 point) hold a 10 point lead over the NDP (36%, unchanged) among the province's decided voters. The Green Party is favoured by 15% of decided voters for the third straight Ipsos Reid survey.

Both the Premier and Leader of the Opposition garner approval ratings from just less than half of BC voters. Gordon Campbell's approval rating as Premier stands at 47%, down a statistically insignificant 2 points from June. Carole James has an approval rating of 48% as NDP and Opposition Leader, a decline of 6 points over the past three months.

In other results, a slight majority (54%) of British Columbians say they approve of the overall performance of the BC Liberal government. This is down 4 points from when this question was last asked in April of this year.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between September 5 and September 11, 2007. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of BC been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to Census data.

Little Change In Voter Preferences As BC Liberals (46%, Up 1 Point) Stay Well Ahead Of NDP (36%, Unchanged)

There hasn't been any real change in party standings for voter support over the past three months. The BC Liberals currently have the support of 46% (up 1 point) of the province's decided voters, a 10 point lead over the NDP at 36% (unchanged). The Green Party currently has 15% support, unchanged from June. These results exclude the 19% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference. The level of undecided voters is up 6 points from June.

• The BC Liberals lead by 15 points in the Lower Mainland (49% Lib vs. 34% NDP) and by a statistically insignificant 2 points in the rest of BC (41% Lib vs. 39% NDP).
• The BC Liberals lead by 18 points among men (50% Lib vs. 32% NDP) and are effectively tied with the NDP among women (42% Lib vs. 40% NDP).
• The BC Liberals lead by a wide margin among higher income households (57% Lib vs. 31% NDP) and by a much smaller margin among middle income households (46% Lib vs. 40% NDP). The NDP leads among lower income households (38% NDP vs. 30% Lib).

Decided Vote Tracking

Approval Rating For NDP Leader Carole James (48%) Slips 6 Points. Gordon Campbell's Approval Holds Steady (47%, Down 2 Points)

Carole James' approval rating as NDP and Opposition Leader has dropped below a majority for the first time since September 2004. Currently, 48% of British Columbians say they approve of her performance, a drop of 6 points from June (9% "strongly", 39% "moderately"). Her disapproval rating is currently 36% (up 2 points), including 15% "strongly" and 21% "moderately".

• James' approval rating is higher outside the Lower Mainland (52% vs. 44% Lower Mainland), with women (52% vs. 43% of men) and with lower and middle income households (53% lower, 51% middle vs. 42% higher).

British Columbians continue to be split in their assessments of Gordon Campbell's performance as Premier. Slightly less than half (47%, down 2 points) of voters say they approve of Campbell's performance, including 13% "strongly" and 34% "moderately". A similar proportion (48%, unchanged) disapprove of his performance, including 29% "strongly" and 19% "moderately".

• Campbell's approval rating is higher in the Lower Mainland (50% vs. 42% rest of BC), with men (52% vs. 42% women) and higher income households (55% higher vs. 49% middle, 36% lower).

Leader Approval Tracking

Slim Majority (54%) Approve Of Overall Performance Of BC Liberal Government

A narrow majority (54%) of British Columbians say they approve of the performance of the BC Liberal Government, including 13% who "strongly" approve and 40% who "moderately" approve. This approval rating is down 4 points from April. Meanwhile, four-in-ten (39%, up 4 points) disapprove of the government's performance, including 20% who "strongly" disapprove and 19% who "somewhat" disapprove.

• Government approval is higher with men (60% vs. 48% women) and higher income households (63% higher vs. 53% middle, 48% lower).

BC Liberal Government Approval Tracking

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice-President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(778) 373-5130
[email protected]

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