Seven in Ten (71%) Canadians Say American Involvement in Iraq Turning into Another Vietnam

Toronto, ONTARIO - President Bush stated on May 1st that combat operations in Iraq were over. However, the American military continues to suffer casualties on an almost daily basis. Some commentators have started to describe the situation as a quagmire, the fear of every United States President since the Vietnam conflict, where the American military is no longer in combat but cannot leave Iraq, which has resulted in guerrilla style attacks from splintered opposition forces. According to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, seven in ten (71%) Canadians agree with the view that the American involvement in Iraq is turning into another Vietnam, where Iraqis are becoming more resistant to American occupation and will result in increasing numbers of American casualties.

As for the controversy over the intelligence used to build the case for the war, a plurality (44%, up from 42% in mid-June) of Canadians continue to believe that the United States knowingly used incorrect or fabricated intelligence to provide justification for attacking Iraq in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power. This compares to one in three (32%, down from 35%) who hold the view that the intelligence reports were in fact correct, and that Iraq did possess weapons of mass destruction that the Coalition has just not discovered yet or that Saddam Hussein had destroyed before the start of the military action. One-fifth (19%, up from 17%) of Canadians feel that the evidence used against Iraq was incorrect and is the result of a failure of the U.S. intelligence agencies.

Further, seven in ten (70%) Canadians believe that if a future investigation is conducted and it concludes that President Bush knowingly used incorrect or fabricated intelligence to convince Congress and the American public to approve the Iraq military action, than he should face impeachment hearings.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between July 15th and July 17th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,055 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Seven in ten (71%) Canadians say that the American involvement in Iraq is turning into another Vietnam, where Iraqis are becoming more resistant to American occupation and will result in increasing numbers of American casualties. In total, one in four (26%) Canadians disagree with this position.

• There are few significant differences between regions on this view. However, Ontarians (74%) are significantly more likely to agree with this position than are Quebecers (66%). Meanwhile, Albertans (16%) are statistically more likely to strongly disagree with this viewpoint than are their neighbours to the east in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (6%) or to the west in British Columbia (7%).
• While there are no significant differences between age groups, there appears to a difference in the intensity of position. Older (41%) Canadians are significantly more likely to strongly agree with this position than are either their middle-aged (30%) or young adult (23%) counterparts. This may be the result of older and to some extent middle-aged Canadians remembering the atmosphere of the Viet Nam era.
• There are no significant differences between education or household income groups in agreement or disagreement with this viewpoint.

A plurality (44%, up from 42%) of Canadians continue to believe that the United States knowingly used incorrect or fabricated intelligence to provide justification for attacking Iraq in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power. This compares to one in three (32%) who hold the view that the intelligence reports were in fact correct, and that Iraq did possess weapons of mass destruction that the Coalition has just not discovered yet or that Saddam Hussein had destroyed before the start of the military action. One-fifth (19%, up from 17%) of Canadians feel that the evidence used against Iraq was incorrect and is the result of a failure of the U.S. intelligence agencies.

• Belief that the Americans knowingly used incorrect or fabricated intelligence is highest among Quebecers (52%), those in Ontario (45%) and British Columbia (42%), followed by Alberta (34%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (32%) and Atlantic Canada (31%). This position is also more likely to be held by university graduates (53%) than by those in with lower levels of education (40%).
• Quebecers (19%) are the least likely to believe that the intelligence reports were correct and that the coalition has simply not discovered evidence of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. Canadians with a post-secondary education or some university (36%) are more likely to believe that this is the case than are university graduates (27%).
• The view that the intelligence was simply incorrect is held by one-quarter of residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (26%) and Atlantic Canada (25%) followed by those in Quebec (19%), Alberta (19%), British Columbia (18%) and Ontario (17%). Older (25%) and young adult (21%) Canadians are significantly more likely than are their middle-age (14%) counterparts to believe this to be the case.
• Canadians without a high school diploma (12%) are significantly more likely to say they `don't know' that those with higher levels of education (4%).

Further, seven in ten (70%) believe that if an investigation is conducted and it concludes that President Bush knowingly used incorrect or fabricated intelligence to convince Congress and the American public to approve the Iraq military action, than President Bush should face impeachment hearings. In fact, a plurality (45%) strongly agree with this proposition, with a further one-quarter (24%) who somewhat agree. In total, one in four (26%) disagrees with this proposition.

• Regionally, the one significant difference in opinion is on either end of the spectrum of opinion. Quebecers (50%) are significantly more likely than are residents of Alberta (38%) to express strong agreement with this view, while Albertans (21%) are significantly more likely than are Quebecers (10%) to strongly disagree with this idea.
• Among age groups, three-quarters (75%) of young adult Canadians agree with this proposition, compared to 64% of older Canadians. In fact, older (31%) Canadians are significantly more likely than are young adult (23%) Canadians to disagree with this idea.
• University graduates (77%) are significantly more likely to agree with this proposition than are wither those with a post-secondary education (68%) or those without a high school diploma (60%).

To veiw the release and the detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.

-30-

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900