Seven in Ten (71%) Now Feel Prime Minister and Canada Justified in Not Supporting U.S. Coalition in Iraq Military Action

Toronto, ONTARIO - According to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, seven in ten (71%) Canadians now feel, based on the current knowledge of the situation in Iraq, that Prime Minister Chretien and the Government of Canada was justified in not supporting the United States and its coalition in the military action against Iraq.

In total, six in ten (59%) Canadians feel that the information used to support the military action against Iraq was incorrect or faulty. Four in ten (42%) believe that the United States knowingly used incorrect or fabricated intelligence to provide justification for attacking Iraq in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power, while one in seven (17%) feel that the evidence used against Iraq was incorrect, but that it was the result of a failure of the U.S. intelligence agencies.

In contrast, one in three (35%) say that the intelligence reports were correct and that Iraq did in fact possess weapons of mass destruction that the coalition has just not discovered yet or that Saddam Hussein had destroyed prior to the military action.

Despite that fact that the `Coalition of the Willing' has not found evidence of weapons of mass destruction and that this argument was the basis for the invasion of Iraq, a majority (53%) of Canadians feel the liberation of the Iraqi people is justification enough for the military action that deposed Saddam Hussein. One in three (35%), however, hold the view that because the imminent threat of weapons of mass destruction was used as the justification for the action, the lack of any solid evidence being found of these weapons eliminates any justification for the military action.

While, Canadians in hindsight may view the liberation of the Iraqi people as a positive outcome, a majority do not believe that the argument of weapons of mass destruction justified the military action in the first place. In fact, six in ten (59%) say the United States and its allies were not justified in taking military action against Iraq based on the premise that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. The opposite view, however, is held by one in three (35%) of Canadians.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between June 10th and June 12th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,055 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001Census data.

Asked if, based on current knowledge of the situation in Iraq, whether Prime Minister Chretien and the Government of Canada was justified in not supporting the United States and its coalition in the military action against Iraq, seven in ten (71%) feel that this is the case. Holding the opposite position is one in four (27%) Canadians.

• Nine in ten (88%) Quebecers feel that the Federal Government was justified in its action on this issue followed by those in British Columbia (78%), Atlantic Canada (67%), Ontario (66%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (60%) and just 47% in Alberta. Albertans (52%) are significantly more likely than those in any other region to hold the opposite position.

• Younger adult (80%) Canadians are more likely than their middle aged (71%) or older (62%) counterparts to believe that Canada was justified in not supporting the U.S. military action.

• Men (31%) are significantly more likely than women (24%) to feel that Canada was not justified in its opposition to the military action.

• University graduates (77%) and those with some university or other post-secondary education (71%) are significantly more likely than those a high school diploma (66%) or without a high school diploma (57%) to hold this position that Canada was justified in not supporting the US military action.

In total, six in ten (59%) Canadians feel that the information used to support the military action against Iraq was incorrect or faulty. Four in ten (42%) believe that the United States knowingly used incorrect or fabricated intelligence to provide justification for attacking Iraq in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power.

• Quebecers (53%) are more likely than are their counterparts in Ontario (39%), Atlantic Canada (39%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (34%) or Alberta (31%) to hold this position.

• This view is also held by half (49%) of younger adult Canadians. This compares to four in ten (42%) of middle aged and one in three (36%) older Canadians.

• Canadians from middle-income households (49%) are significantly more likely than are their counterparts in lower (40%) or upper (40%) income households.

One in seven (17%) feel that the evidence used against Iraq was incorrect, but that it was the result of a failure of the U.S. intelligence agencies.

• Men (20%) are significantly more likely than are women (14%) to hold this view.

• Canadians with a university degree (20%) and those with some university or other post-secondary education (18%) are significantly more likely than are Canadians without a high school diploma (9%) to believe this to be the case.

• Canadians from lower income households (21%) are more likely than are their counterparts in middle-income households (14%) to feel that this is what happened.

In contrast, one in three (35%) say that the intelligence reports were correct and that Iraq did in fact possess weapons of mass destruction that the coalition has just not discovered yet or that Saddam Hussein had destroyed prior to the military action.

• This position is held by half (51%) of Albertans, compared to the views of those in Ontario (38%), British Columbia (31%) and Quebec (27%).

• Older (39%) and middle aged (37%) Canadians are significantly more likely to believe that this is the case than are their younger (30%) counterparts.

• Canadians from upper income households (39%) are more likely than are those from middle-income households (31%).

Despite that fact that the `Coalition of the Willing' has not found evidence of weapons of mass destruction to date and that this argument was the basis for the invasion of Iraq, a majority (53%) of Canadians feel the liberation of the Iraqi people is justification enough for the military action that deposed Saddam Hussein. One in three (35%), however, hold the view that because the imminent threat of weapons of mass destruction was used as the justification for the action, the lack of any solid evidence being found of these weapons eliminates any justification for the military action.

• The liberation of the Iraqi people is viewed by two-thirds of Atlantic Canadians (64%) and those in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (63%) as enough justification for the military action. This compares to the views of those in Ontario (51%) and Quebec (48%).

• Younger adult (42%) Canadians are significantly more likely than are older (30%) Canadians to believe that justification for the war was based on weapons of mass destruction.

• This view is also significantly more likely to be held by university graduates (42%) than by high school graduates (34%), or those with some university or other post-secondary education (32%) or those without a high school diploma (31%).

While, Canadians in hindsight may view the liberation of the Iraqi people as a positive outcome, a majority do not believe that the argument of weapons of mass destruction justified the military action in the first place. In fact, six in ten (59%) say the United States and its allies were not justified in taking military action against Iraq based on the premise that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. The opposite view, however, is held by one in three (35%) of Canadians.

• Regionally, Quebecers (74%) and those in British Columbia (67%) are significantly more likely to hold the position that the war was not justified based on the premise of weapons of mass destruction, than are Canadians in Ontario (55%), Atlantic Canada (53%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (46%) or Alberta (40%).

• Older (40% versus 31% of young adult) Canadians are more likely to hold that view that the war was justified on this basis, while young adult (64% versus 55% of older) Canadians believe that the war was not justified based on the premise of Iraq possessing weapons of mass destruction.

• University graduates (69%) are significantly more likely than their counterparts with some university or other post-secondary education (60%), a high school diploma (52%) or without a high school diploma (43%) to feel that the war was not justified based on the weapons of mass destruction argument. In comparison, half (49%) of Canadians without a high school diploma feel that the war was justified based on this argument, while just 34% of those with some university or other post-secondary education and just 26% of university graduates hold this viewpoint.

To view the release and detailed tables, please open the attached PDF documents.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900