Short Lived Budget Bloom Wilts For
Harper Tories
Toronto, ON -The post-budget bounce in Tory support has proved to be temporary according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for Canwest and Global TV.
The survey shows finds that 36% of Canadians would support the Conservatives if a federal election were held today - a 4-point decline from the magical 40% threshold the Conservatives garnered last week in the immediate aftermath of the release of the federal budget. The 36% level of support returns the Conservatives to the same level of support they earned during the election in 2006.
Tory support slipped the most in Ontario (down eight points) and British Columbia (down seven points), while the Quebec-election appears to have failed in giving a boost to the Harper Conservatives.
With levels of Conservative and Liberal support very similar to the 2006 election, the question remains whether Harper's Tories want a rematch this year.
Tory support has declined most in Ontario (35%, down eight points since last week) and British Columbia (37%, down seven points). The Conservative take has declined elsewhere, in Atlantic Canada (37%, down three points) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (42%, down two points). Only in Quebec (26%, up one point since last week) and Alberta (58%, unchanged) has Tory support held firm.
Support for the Grits has increased by five points in Ontario (38%), by seven points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (24%) and by 13 points in Atlantic Canada (48%). The Liberal take has dropped by three points in Quebec (23%), by six points in Alberta (18%) and has remained unchanged in British Columbia (31%).
Support for the NDP experienced a boost in Alberta (19%, up nine points since last week), while declining in Atlantic Canada (12%, down five points), and remaining fairly consistent elsewhere. Support for the Green Party improved by five points in British Columbia (12%), by four points in Ontario (13%) and by three points in Quebec (7%), while declining in Alberta (3%, down five points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (10%, down five points) and Atlantic Canada (3%, down two points). The Bloc, meanwhile, declined by two points in Quebec (31%).
By gender, men favour the Conservatives (44%) over the Liberals (29%) by a 15-point margin. Women's support tilts towards the Liberals (34%) over the Conservatives (28%). The NDP draws higher support among women (17%) than among men (12%), as does the Bloc (women: 9%; men, 7%) and Green Party (women: 11%; men: 8%).
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from March 27-28, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 843 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.For more information on this press release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.
Ipsos
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