Six in Ten (60%) Ontarians Say Election of Liberals is `Good News' For Province as Even More (75%) Feel McGuinty Will Do A Good Job as Premier

Toronto, ONTARIO - Six in ten (60%) Ontarians believe that the election on October 2nd of Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals is good news for the province, according to a new Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll released today. One in five (20%), however, says that the election of the Liberals is bad news, while 14% feel that it is neither good nor bad news for Ontario. In context, in August 1999, 54% of Ontarians said that the re-election of Mike Harris and the Conservatives in the election the previous June was good news for the province of Ontario.

As for the new Premier, Ontarians appear to give Dalton McGuinty a personal honeymoon as three-quarters (75%) of Ontarians feel that he will "do a good job as Ontario's Premier" - up from 56% in August.

Looking forward, four in ten (39%) Ontarians believe that the province will be better off in four years time with Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals in power, 15% feel Ontario will be worse off, and 42% say things will remain about the same. When we asked this question during the election campaign, just 27% felt that the province would be better off in four years with a Liberal government, while 15% were pessimistic.

This poll was taken over the four days (October 25-28, 2003) before former Provincial Auditor, Eric Peters, delivered his report (October 29, 2003) indicating that the provincial deficit could be pegged at $5.6 billion. Even at this point, Ontarians were indicating that of the "Big Ticket" promises the Liberals had made during the election campaign, half were seen as pledges that the government should make significant progress on in their first year while the others could be given a longer horizon to fulfill.

When asked "if the provincial Liberal government should make significant progress during their first year, before the next election or if it does not matter" regarding a number of their campaign promises, a majority of Ontarians feel that significant progress in the following areas should be made during the Liberals first year in office:

• `Opening up 1,600 new hospital beds' (60%)

• `Expanding MRI and CatScan services' (59%)

• `Hiring 8,000 more nurses for the Ontario healthcare system' (56%)

• `Freezing post-secondary tuition rates for two years' (56%)

• `Diverting 2 cents of the gasoline tax to municipalities for public transit' (54%)

Less than a majority describe the following as priorities for the Liberals first year in office:

• `Putting 1,000 more police on the street' (40%)

• `Instituting, up to grade 3, a maximum of 20 students per class room' (37%)

• `Increasing the mandatory education age from 16 to 18 years of age' (31%)

• `Increasing the number of spaces in Ontario colleges and universities by 60,000 within 5 years' (19%).

In terms of popular support, the Liberals appear to be in the honeymoon stage of governing. Currently, the Liberals hold support from 56% of decided voters. This is nine points above their actual popular support received in the October 2nd election. The Conservatives (27%) receive the support of approximately one in four decide voters, eight points below their election day total. One in eight (12%) decided voters say they would support the NDP if an election were held tomorrow, slightly below their total vote on election day. One in twenty (5%) say they would support the Green Party compared to 3% who did so on October 2nd. One percent of decided voters indicate they would vote for another party. At this stage, one in ten (10%) Ontarians say they would not vote (1%) or are undecided (9%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CFTO.CFRB/Globe and Mail poll conducted between October 25th and October 28th, 2003. The telephone survey is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,001 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 2001 Census data.

Six in ten (60%) Ontarians say that the election on October 2nd of Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals is good news for the province. One in five (20%), however, says that the Liberals election is bad news, while 14% feel that it is neither good news nor bad news for Ontario.

• Regionally, residents of the GTA (65%) and Northern Ontario (64%) led those who feel that the election of the Liberals is good news for the province, followed by those in Eastern Ontario (55%), Southwestern Ontario (55%) and Hamilton/Niagara (52%). Within the GTA there is no difference between the views of residents of the City of Toronto (65%) and the surrounding `905' Belt (65%).

• Young adult (65%) Ontarians are significantly more likely than their middle aged counterparts (55%) to say that the Liberal's election is good news for Ontario.

• University graduates (65%) are more likely to hold this view than are those with a post-secondary education/some university (56%).

• Decided Liberal supporters (85%) are the most likely to say that the election of Dalton McGuinty and the Liberal party is good news for the province. Six in ten (59%) of decided NDP supporters also hold this view. However, just 20% of Conservative voters share this position. A majority (55%) of Conservative voters feel that the election of the Liberals is a bad news for the province.

• There is no statistical difference on this question between genders or household income groups.

As for a view of the new Premier, three-quarters (75%) of Ontarians feel that he will do a good job as Ontario's Premier. Seventeen percent feel that Premier McGuinty will do a poor job in his new role.

• There are no statistical differences on this question between regions, age, gender or household income groups.

• Young adults (81%) are significantly more likely to say that Dalton McGuinty will do a good job as Premier, than are middle aged (72%) or older (72%) Ontarians. However, older Ontarians (17%) are significantly more likely than are either their middle-aged (8%) or young adult (8%) counter parts to believe that Dalton McGuinty will do a very good job in this new role as Premier.

• Nine in ten (92%) of decided Liberal supporters feel that Mr. McGuinty will do a good job as Premier, while this position is also held by two-thirds (67%) of NDP and half (49%) of Conservative supporters.

• Not surprisingly over nine in ten Ontarians who feel that the victory of the Liberals is good news (94%) and who feel that Ontario will be better off in four years (95%) also hold the position that Dalton McGuinty will do a good job as Premier.

Four in ten (39%) Ontarians believe that the province will be better off in four years time with Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals in power, while 15% feel it will be worse off and 42% say things will remain about the same.

• Residents of the GTA (45%) are significantly more likely than are those in the rest of Ontario (35%) to believe that Ontario will be better off in four years with the Liberals in power.

• Older (47%) Ontarians are more likely to say the province will be better off in four years than are young adult (37%) or middle-aged (36%) Ontarians.

• University graduates (45%) are more likely than those with a high school education or less (37%) and those with a post-secondary education/some university (35%) to hold the view that the province will be better off in four years time with the Liberals in power.

• Six in ten (59%) of decided Liberal supporters feel the province will be better off in four years time, while 36% say that it will be about the same. Decided Conservative supporters have a decidedly different opinion. Four in ten (44%) say that the province will be worse off in four years under the Liberals, compared to just 11% who say Ontario will be better off.

• Not surprising, 60% of Ontarians who say the Liberal victory is good news for the province, also feel that Ontario will be better off in four years. Conversely, 56% of those who feel the election of the Liberals is bad news for the province also feel that Ontario will be worse off in four years time.

• There is no statistical difference on this question between genders or household income groups.

After making a number of promises during the campaign, how long does the public give the new government to fulfill these promises? When asked if the provincial Liberal government should make significant progress during their first year, before the next election or if it does not matter regarding a number of their campaign promises, a majority of Ontarians feel that significant progress in the following areas should be made during the Liberals first year in office:

• `Opening up 1,600 new hospital beds' (60%)

• `Expanding MRI and Cat Scan services' (59%)

• `Hiring 8,000 more nurses for the Ontario healthcare system' (56%)

• `Freezing post-secondary tuition rates for two years' (56%)

• `Diverting 2 cents of the gasoline tax to municipalities for public transit' (54%)

Less than a majority describe the following as priorities for the Liberals first year in power:

• `Putting 1,000 more police on the street' (40%)

• `Instituting, up to grade 3, a maximum of 20 students per class room' (37%)

• `Increasing the mandatory education age from 16 to 18 years of age' (31%)

• `Increasing the number of spaces in Ontario colleges and universities by 60,000 within 5 years' (19%).

After winning 47% of the popular vote during the October 2nd election, currently support among decided voters for the Liberals (56%) is nine points higher.

• Regionally, the Liberals receive their highest level of support from residents of Northern Ontario (67%), while their lowest support is recorded in Eastern Ontario (53%) and Hamilton/Niagara (48%).

• Young adults (61%) are more likely to support the Liberals than are older (52%) Ontarians.

• Women (62%) are more likely to support the Liberals than are men (49%).

The Conservatives (27%) receive the support of approximately one in four decide voters, eight points below their election day total.

• Regionally, support for the Conservatives is higher in Eastern Ontario (32%), the `905' Belt (32%), the Southwest (27%), and in Hamilton/Niagara (27%), while it is lowest in the City of Toronto (23%) and Northern Ontario (16%).

• Older (37%) Ontarians are significantly more likely to support the Conservatives than are their middle-aged (25%) or older (20%) counterparts.

• The Conservatives hold an edge in support among men (31% versus 23% of women).

One in eight (12%) decided voters say they would support the NDP if an election were held tomorrow, slightly below their total vote on election day.

• The NDP receives significantly more support in the Hamilton/Niagara region (19%) than in the GTA (12%), the Southwest (11%) and in Eastern Ontario (8%).

• Support for the NDP is statistically consistent across age, gender, education and household income groups.

One in twenty (5%) say they would support the Green Party compared to 3% who did so on October 2nd.

• Support for the Green Party is stronger among young adult (7%) and middle aged (6%) Ontarians than among older (0%) Ontarians.

• Support for the Green Party is statistically consistent across gender, education and household income groups.

Please open the attached PDF files to view the release and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900