Six in Ten (62%) Say Canada Should Side with France, Germany and Russia to Allow UN Inspectors More Time in Iraq

Toronto, ONTARIO (Friday, February 21st, 2003) ) - According to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released tonight, six in ten (62%) Canadians say Canada should support the position of France, Germany and Russia in the Iraq debate, which calls for more time for United Nations weapons inspectors in Iraq. One in three (35%) believes that the country should support the side of the Americans, Britain and Australia which calls for immediate military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power.

A majority (55%) however, agrees that if Iraq does not produce the evidence that it has given up its biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs and that it has destroyed its weapons of mass destruction, that military action should be taken to remove President Hussein from power. Further, just one in five (21%) Canadians believes that Iraq has, up to this point, provided such evidence.

After the United Nations was provided with the American case against Iraq by Secretary of State Colin Powell, as well as hearing the preliminary reports from the chief UN weapons inspectors in Iraq, a slight majority (52%) of Canadians do not believe that the United Nations Security Council has enough evidence to authorise military action against Iraq with the ultimate aim of removing Saddam Hussein from power. Just over four in ten (45%) agrees that there is enough evidence to authorise an attack.

And finally, while some critics have said that Canada has not had a coherent policy on Iraq, six in ten (58%) Canadians say they approve of Prime Minister Chretien's handling of the situation, while four in ten (38%) disapprove.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between February 18th and February 20th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,001 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Six in Ten (62%) Say Canada Should Support France, Germany and Russia in Move to Allow UN Inspectors More Time in Iraq

Regarding the debate over Iraq now consuming the United Nations Security Council, six in ten (62%) Canadians say the country should support the position of France, Germany and Russia, which calls for more time for UN weapons inspectors in Iraq. On the opposite side of the issue are one in three (35%) who believes that Canada should support the side of the Americans, Britain and Australia that calls for immediate military action to remove Saddam Hussein from power.

• Quebecers (75%) are the most likely to express support for the French/German/Russian position.
• Women (67%) are more likely than men (58%) to say Canada should support the French/German/Russian position, while men (40%) are more likely than women (30%) say that Canada should support the position of the United States, Britain and Australia.
• Older (67%) and younger (65%) Canadians are more likely than their middle aged (57%) counterparts to say the country should support of the side of more time for UN weapons inspectors. Middle aged (40%) Canadians are more likely than their either younger (33%) or older (29%) Canadians to say Canada should take the American side of immediate military action.

An equal number (62%) say that giving the UN inspectors more time, is also the closest position to their personal point of view. Just over one in three (36%) indicate that the American position is the closest match to their own on the issue.

• Quebecers (80%) are the most likely to say the French/German/Russian position is closest to their own view.
• Older (69%) Canadians are more likely than younger (60%) or middle aged (58%) Canadians to say that providing the UN weapons inspectors more time is closest to their viewpoint, while middle aged (40%) and younger (39%) Canadians are more likely than their older (28%) counterparts to say they personally are closer to the position of the United States and Britain.

But Majority (55%) Agrees if Iraq Does Not Provide Evidence, Military Action Should Be Taken

A majority (55%), however, agrees that if Iraq does not produce the evidence that it has given up its biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs and that it has destroyed its weapons of mass destruction, that military action should be taken to remove President Hussein from power. Four in ten (42%) hold the opposite position.

• Regionally, Quebecers (41%) are the least likely to agree with this position and in fact are the most likely (57%) to disagree. The results in the other regions are: Atlantic Canada (agree 70%; disagree 29%); Alberta (agree 62%; disagree 35%); Saskatchewan/Manitoba (agree 62%; disagree 35%); Ontario (agree 58%; disagree 39%); and British Columbia (agree 57%; disagree 40%).
• Men (60%) are more likely than women (51%) to say that if Iraq does not provide enough evidence that it has disarmed, that military action should be taken to remove Saddam Hussein from power.

Further, just one in five (21%) Canadians believes that up to this point, Iraq has provided evidence that it has destroyed any weapons of mass destruction that it once had and has stopped its biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs. Three-quarters (76%) disagrees that Iraq has provided such evidence.

• Regionally, Quebecers (27%) are more likely than resident of British Columbia (18%) and Ontarians (17%) to agree that Iraq has now produced enough evidence.
• Canadians from middle income households (25%) are more likely to agree that Iraq has produced enough evidence than are those from upper income households (18%). Residents from upper income households (81%) are conversely more likely than their counterparts in middle income households (73%) to disagree that Iraq has accomplished this.
• There is no statistical difference between age or gender groups on this subject.

Half (52%) Do Not Believe United Nations Currently Has Enough Evidence to Authorise Military Action

After the UN was provided with the American case against Iraq by Secretary of State Colin Powell, as well as hearing the preliminary reports from the chief UN weapons inspectors in Iraq, a slight majority (52%) of Canadians do not believe that the United Nations Security Council has enough evidence to authorise military action against Iraq with the ultimate aim of removing Saddam Hussein from power. Just over four in ten (45%) agrees that there is enough evidence to authorise an attack.

• Regionally, Quebecers (30%) are the least likely to agree that enough evidence has been presented to authorise a military action against Iraq. In fact, seven in ten (68%) Quebecers disagrees that the case has been made. In the other regions, Saskatchewan/Manitoba (agree 61%; disagree 37%) and Atlantic Canada (agree 59%; disagree 41%) believe there is enough evidence, while Alberta (agree 49%; disagree 50%), Ontario (agree 48%; disagree 47%) and British Columbia (agree 46%; disagree 51%) are split.
• There are no statistical differences between gender, age, or household income groups.

Six in Ten (58%) Approve of Prime Minister's Handling of Iraq Situation

While some critics have said that Canada has not had a coherent policy on Iraq, six in ten (58%) Canadians approve of Prime Minister Chretien's handling of the situation, while four in ten (38%) disapprove.

• Approval for the Prime Minister's handling of this issue is highest in Atlantic Canada (71%) followed by British Columbia (63%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (59%), Ontario (59%) and Quebec (57%). Alberta (43%) is the only region where less than a majority of residents express approval of the Prime Minister's handling of the Iraq situation.
• Men (42%) are more likely than women (33%) are to disapprove.
• Younger (63%) Canadians are more likely than middle aged (55%) Canadians to express approval, while middle aged (41%) Canadians are more likely than their younger (33%) counterparts to express disapproval for the Prime Minister's performance on this issue.

To view the release and the detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900