SOCIAL UNION SURVEY FINDS CANADIANS (76%) THINK THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT ACT ON SOCIAL PROGRAMS WITHOUT PROVINCIAL APPROVAL

SOCIAL UNION SURVEY FINDS CANADIANS (76%) THINK THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT ACT ON SOCIAL PROGRAMS WITHOUT PROVINCIAL APPROVAL

SIX IN TEN (62%)THINK THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OPT OUT OF NATIONAL PROGRAMS

THE MAJORITY (55%)DISAGREE WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ALONE SETTING STANDARDS FOR NATIONAL PROGRAMS

CANADIANS ARE DIVIDED ON WHETHER THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ALONE SHOULD DETERMINE WHO IS IN VIOLATION OF THE SOCIAL UNION AND THE APPROPRIATE PENALTY

This National Angus Reid/Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone between December 14th and December 20th 1998 among a representative cross-section of 1,500 Canadian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to 1996 Census data.

With a national sample of 1,500, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

Over the last several months, our provincial and federal governments have been discussing a new "social union," a rulebook for how national programs (like healthcare, education, childcare and welfare) should be run in Canada. In fact, Canadians (76%) say the federal government should not act on social programs without provincial approval. Six in ten (62%) also believes a province should be able to opt out of national programs as long as they provide a similar program. Further, setting national standards for social programs is not considered to be within the sole jurisdiction of the federal government by the majority (55%) of Canadians. However, respondents were divided (47% for versus 51% against) on whether the federal government alone should determine if the rules for programs have been violated and how to punish transgressors.

These are some of the highlights from a national Globe and Mail/Angus Reid telephone survey conducted between December 14thth and 20th, 1998 among a representative cross-section of 1,500 Canadian adults. With a national sample of 1,500, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The following provides a full synopsis of the findings.

CANADIANS (76%) SAY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT ACT WITHOUT PROVINCIAL APPROVAL ON NATIONAL PROGRAMS

Respondents were provided with a brief description of the social union as a new rulebook outlining how programs like healthcare, education, childcare and welfare should be run in Canada. As it turns out, Canadians (76%) believe the provincial premiers are right when they say that the federal government should not be allowed to create new social programs unless a majority of provincial governments concur with them doing so.

For those who agree (76%) that the federal government must have provincial agreement to create new national programs, 48% strongly agree while the remaining 28% somewhat agree. Roughly one quarter of Canadians (23%) disagree with the federal government having to have provincial approval before starting new social programs, while only 10% strongly disagree.

• Regionally, those living in Ontario (72%) are least likely to agree that the federal government should have provincial approval before creating new social programs; whereas, Quebecers (81%) are most likely to agree with mandatory provincial approval.
• Bloc Quebecois voters (86%) are more likely than others (PC, 83%; Reform, 80%; Liberal, 72%; NDP, 67%) to agree that the federal government should not be able to go ahead with a social program unless it has the approval of the majority of provinces.

Six in ten (62%) Indicate that the Provinces Should be Able to Stay Out of National Programs and Still Receive the Funding

Six in ten (62%) Canadians agree that "individual provinces should be able to stay out of national programs in areas like healthcare and education, and still receive the same money from the federal government as long as they provide a similar program of their own." In fact, three in ten (29%) Canadians strongly agree that each province should have the right to opt out and another third (33%) somewhat agree. For those who disagree (36%) with individual provinces having the option to opt out of national programs, 16% somewhat disagree and 19% strongly disagree.

• Again, residents of Ontario (51%) are the least likely to agree with each province having the right to opt out of the program and still receive the money as long as a similar program is provided. Quebecers (78%), on the other hand, are the most likely to agree with a more decentralized approach to social programs.
• Those who are supporters of the BQ (90%) followed by Reform voters (74%) are more likely than the national average (62%) to agree with each province having the right to opt out of a national social program as long as a similar provincial program is offered.

The Majority of Canadians (55%) Disagree with the Federal Government On Its Own Determining Standards for Social Programs

The majority (55%) of Canadians disagrees with the federal government acting alone in determining standards for national programs like healthcare and education. In fact, a larger proportion strongly disagree (36%) rather than somewhat disagree (19%). For those who believe the federal government should act alone in setting the standards for national programs, the split is even - 23% strongly agree, while 21% somewhat agree.

• Quebecers (63%) are more likely than the national average (55%) to disagree with the federal government alone setting standards for social programs.
• Canadians between the ages of 35 and 54 (60%) are more likely than others to disagree with the federal government alone determining a standard set of rules for national programs - versus 18-34, 53% and 55+, 51%.
• Once more, those who support the BQ (77%) are more likely than other voters (PC, 59%; Reform, 58%; NDP, 51%; Liberal, 47%), to disagree with the federal government alone setting the standards for social programs.

Canadians are Divided on Whether the Federal Government Alone Should Determine Whether Program Rules have been Violated and Assign the Appropriate Penalties

Canadians are divided (51% disagree, 47% agree) on whether "the federal government alone should determine if the rules for programs... are being violated by individual provinces, and whether or not they should be penalized."

• Residents of Quebec (69%) are more likely than the national average (51%) to disagree with the federal government alone determining whether individual provinces have violated the rules for social programs and assigning a penalty.
• Women (55%) are more likely than men (47%) to disagree with the federal government alone determining whether individual provinces have broken rules or assigning penalties.
• BQ voters (82%) are almost twice as likely as Liberal voters (44%) to disagree with the federal government alone determining if the rules for social programs have been violated and assigning penalties that are appropriate.

For further information, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
Executive Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900