Tied Tories Lose Their Edge

Toronto, ON- Stephan Dion's Federal Liberals and Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives are in a virtual tie with a slight advantage going to the Liberals, according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest and Global TV.

The survey finds that 32% of Canadians would support the Liberals if a federal election were held today compared to 31% for the Conservatives. This result puts the Liberals two points ahead of their 2006 election turnout, while the Conservatives have fallen five points behind their 2006 election showing. Support for both the Liberal and Conservative parties declined this week; by two points for the Liberals and by four points for the Conservatives. The NDP (17%) and Green Party (9%), meanwhile, both show improvement since last week. The Bloc Quebecois (8% nationally and 32% in Quebec) declined slightly over the past week.

Were it not for an evaporation of support in the West, the Tories would remain ahead of the Liberals. However, over the past week Conservative support suffered in British Columbia, tumbling by 19 points to 24%, and in Alberta, dropping by 13 points to 53%. Meanwhile Liberal support has declined this week in every region of the country except for Alberta, where they improved five points to 24%, and Atlantic Canada, where they improved by two points to 45%. The NDP and Green Party, meanwhile, improved their fortunes in nearly every region of the country this week.

As the voters weigh their options, there appears to be little comfort for either the Liberal or Conservative parties.

Since May 3, Conservative support declined in every region of the country except Quebec, where they have improved by four points to 24%. Tory support has been hit especially hard in the West, declining by 19 points in British Columbia (24%) and by 13 points in Alberta (53%). Support for the Conservatives also declined by eight points in Atlantic Canada (24%), while dipping by one point in Ontario (33%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (45%).

Support for the Liberals, meanwhile, declined by four points in Quebec (21%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (21%), by three points in British Columbia (29%) and by two points in Ontario (42%). Support for the Liberals has improved by five points in Alberta (25%) and by two points in Atlantic Canada (45%).

Support for the NDP grew over the past week in every region of the country except Saskatchewan and Manitoba (18%), where their support has declined by four points. The NDP take grew most significantly in British Columbia (30%), where it increased by 15 points, and Atlantic Canada (25%), where it increased by seven points. Elsewhere the NDP experienced modest gains of two points in each of Quebec (16%) and Alberta (9%), and by one point in Ontario (14%).

Like the NDP, Green Party support has improved in every region of the country this week but one. In Atlantic Canada, support for the Green Party has declined by five points to 2%. Elsewhere, support for the Green Party grew most significantly in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (15%), where it improved by seven points, in British Columbia (16%), where it improved by six points, and in Alberta (11%), where it improved by four points. Support for the Green Party also improved by one point in both Ontario (10%) and Quebec (6%).

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, declined by three points to 32% in Quebec.

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (34%) over the Liberals (31%) by a 3-point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (34%) over the Conservatives (29%) by a five-point margin. The NDP draws higher support among women (18%) than among men (16%), while the Bloc (women, 9%; men, 7%) and Green Party (women, 10%; men, 9%) divide their support more equally between men and women.

By age, Conservatives enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (41%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (24%). The Liberals enjoy greater support among Canadians 35 to 54 years old (36%) than among either those 18 to 34 years (27%) or those 55 years and older (31%). Support for the NDP (22%), Green Party (14%) and Bloc Quebecois (11%) each depend more heavily on respondents 18 to 34 years of age than among older respondents.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from May 8-10, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more Information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
416-324-2900
[email protected] For full tabular results, please visit our website www.ipsos.ca. News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/.

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