Time for Change: Tories (37%) Maintain Lead over Liberals (31%), NDP (28%) as Tide Strengthens
The poll also shows that the Tories have maintained their lead over the Liberals and the NDP, and that Tory voters are most likely to show up on Election Day and least likely to change their vote before Election Day.
If the election were held tomorrow, 37% of decided voters in Ontario would vote for the Progressive Conservative Party under Tim Hudak, unchanged since April. The Liberal Party under Premier Wynne would receive 31% of the vote (down 1 point), while the NDP under Andrea Horwath would receive 28% of the vote (up 1 point). Other parties, including the Mike Schreiner's Green Party, would receive 4% of the vote (down 1 point). Nearly two in ten (16%) Ontarians overall remain undecided.
Opinions in the key regions of the province have remained relatively stable as well:
- In the 905 region of the GTA, 45% would vote PC compared to 29% who would vote Liberal and 23% NDP. Just 3% would vote for some other party.
- In the 416 region, Toronto Proper, the Liberals (45%) hold a lead over the PCs (26%) and the NDP (23%), with other parties trailing (6%).
- In Southwest Ontario, the NDP (38%) and PCs (36%) are ahead of the Liberals (22%) and other parties (4%).
- In Central Ontario, the PCs (39%) hold a lead over the Liberals (31%), NDP (26%) and other parties (4%).
- In the North, the NDP (45%) are well ahead of the PCs (27%), Liberals (20%), and other parties (8%).
- In Eastern Ontario, the PCs (50%) have a solid lead over the Liberals (34%) and NDP (16%).
PC Voters Most Likely to Show Up to Vote...
Consistent with April's poll, the results of this new poll show that Tory supporters are most likely to show up and vote on Election Day. Among the 52% who say that `nothing short of an unforeseen emergency would stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote', 42% would vote for the PC Party, while 28% would vote Liberal and 27% would vote for the NDP. This once again shows that Tory voters are most motivated, while the Liberal vote is anemic.
PC Voters Most Committed to Party...
Not only are PC voters most likely to show up and vote, they're also the most loyal to their party. A majority (54%) of PC voters say that they are `absolutely certain' that they will vote PC on Election Day. This compares to 37% of Liberal voters who are `absolutely certain' of their vote choice, and 34% of NDP voters who are `absolutely certain'.
Conversely, NDP voters are most tentative with their vote choice, with 23% indicating they're `not certain' (5% not at all/18% not very) that they'll stick with the NDP, compared to 13% of Liberals who are not certain (4% not at all/10% not very) they'll vote for the Grits, and 16% of PC voters (4% not at all/11% not very) who aren't sure they'll vote for the Tories.
The Building Tide of Change...
The data reveal a growing desire for change in Ontario. Nearly three quarters (72%, up 4 points) of Ontarians believe that it is `time for another party to take over', while just 28% think that `the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election', down 4 points.
Further, just 36% of Ontarians believe `Ontario is currently on the right track', down 6 points), while two in three (64%) believe it is `headed in the wrong direction', up 6 points.
Hudak's Image as Potential Premier Strengthens...
For as long as he's been leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, Tim Hudak has generally polled below his party's support levels. While this continues to be the case, he has taken a modest lead over the other party leaders as the person who they think would make the best Premier of Ontario. One in three (34%) believe Tim Hudak would make the best Premier, up 2 points), compared to 29% who believe Andrea Horwath would be the best Premier (up 1 point), and 28% who believe Premier Wynne would be the best Premier for the province (down 3 points). One in ten (9%) believe Mike Schreiner would make the best Premier (unchanged).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between May 6 to 9, 2014, on behalf of CTV and CP24. For this survey, a sample of 821 Ontarians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-3.9 percentage points had all adults in Ontario been surveyed.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.
About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.
With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,712,4 million (2 274 M$) in 2013.
Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.
