Tories Remain Mired In The Minority Muck,
Cling To Slight Advantage Over Grits

Toronto, ON - The latest CanWest News Service/Global News Ipsos Reid national survey pegs the Federal Conservatives with 36% support (unchanged since March 1) and the Liberals with 34% support (up 2 points since March 1). Trailing further behind the front-runners are the NDP with 12% support (down 3 points), the Bloc Quebecois with 9% nationally (up 1 point) and the Green Party with 8% (unchanged). The results likely indicate a continuing minority government stalemate with little early election advantage for any party.

Federal Vote Support (Major Parties)

Eleven percent are undecided, or would not vote.

In Ontario, the Grits (39%) and Tories (38%) are locked in a one point contest. In Quebec, the Liberals (27%) remain the federalist alternative to the Bloc (33%), improving their fortunes by 2-points since March 1. Conservatives remain the leaders in the West, particularly in the Tory-heartland of Alberta (61%), but have slipped 4-points in British Columbia (34%) while the Liberals (35%) have gained 10-points in that province since March 1. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives (39%) have declined 9-points since March 1, while the Liberals (47%) have improved in the region by 8-points.

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (41%) over the Liberals (31%) by a 10-point margin, while women favour the Liberals (37%) over the Conservatives (31%) by a 6-point margin. Women (15%) are more likely than men (9%) to favour the NDP. Men (10%) are slightly more likely than women (7%) to favour the Bloc Quebecois. Support for the Green Party is virtually even among men (8%) and women (9%).

Do Canadians Want an Election Now? Three in Five Do Not (60%)

We asked Canadians to choose between two statements: the Harper government is working fine for the moment and there is no need for an election; or, the country really needs a majority government, and that there should be a spring election to get it.

Between these two ideas, three in five Canadians (60%) say that the Harper government is working fine for the moment, and do not see the need to have an election. This view is held most strongly among Conservative supporters (78%), and among at least half of supporters of the other major parties.

About one in three Canadians (32%) say we really need a majority government and that to get one there should be a spring election. Bloc (46%) and NDP (43%) supporters are most likely to agree that there should be a spring election.

Do Canadians Expect an Election Now? About Half (49%) Do

Asked whether they personally expect that we'll have a federal election in the spring, about half of Canadians (49%) say they do, while 42% say they do not. Liberal (53%) and Bloc (54%) voters are slightly more likely than average to believe there will be an election come spring.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from March 13-15, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

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