TORIES TUMBLE IN ONTARIO ELECTION RUN-UP AS GRITS TAKE 12 POINT LEAD

TORIES TUMBLE IN ONTARIO ELECTION RUN-UP AS GRITS TAKE 12 POINT LEAD - LIBERALS 47%, PCs 35%, NDP 14%

MAJORITY (52%) SAY IT'S TIME FOR ANOTHER PARTY - THREE QUARTERS (76%) SAY PACE OF CHANGE TOO FAST

HOWEVER, MAJORITY SAY GOVERNMENT IS ON RIGHT TRACK (59%) AND MIKE HARRIS WOULD MAKE THE BEST PREMIER (42%) COMPARED WITH OTHER LEADERS

This Angus Reid Group/Globe and Mail/CFRB poll was conducted by telephone from April 9th to April 18th, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 1,000 Ontarian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are accurate to within +3.1 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontarian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

Every indication is that the 1999 Ontario election will be full of twists and turns in the road before Ontarians finally cast their ballots. After taking the lead in the Angus Reid Report on Ontario February 1999 poll, the Tories now find themselves falling behind as the Opposition Liberals take a 12-point lead (35% versus 47%). The NDP holds on to 14% of the decided vote. Voters are of two minds in considering the upcoming election. The majority (52%) say it is time for another party and three quarters (76%) say the pace of change has been too fast under the PC agenda. However, the majority (56%) approve of the overall performance of the PC government and say it is on the right track (59%). Further, Mike Harris (42%) garners more support as the provincial leader who would make the best premier for Ontario than the combined support for Mr. McGuinty (22%) and Mr. Hampton (12%).

The poll comes as the Legislature begins its session - complete with a Throne Speech and new budget - against a backdrop of speculation that a spring call to the voters' box is imminent. These are the highlights of an Angus Reid /Globe and Mail/CFRB poll conducted among 1,000 Ontarians between April 9th and April 18th, 1999. A sample of this size has a corresponding margin of error of + 3.1 percentage points from that of the entire adult Ontario population.

Roles Reversed as Liberals Take the Lead in Run-up to 1999 Election - Liberals 47%, PC 35%, NDP 14%

As the province prepares for a potential spring election, the provincial Liberals jump nine points in the polls and take the lead with 47% of the vote. The PC government drops to 35% (down 8 points since the last sounding) with the NDP mired at 14% of the decided vote. The remaining decided voters (5%) would vote for "some other party," and the undecided vote currently sits at 12%.

• Support for the PC government has waned across all demographic groups; however, men (down from 52% to 38%) and the more affluent (down from 53% to 42%) show the most significant erosion between February 1999 and the current numbers.
• Regionally, the Tories have lost support in Southwestern Ontario (down from 48% to 38%), the GTA (46% to 35%) and more specifically, the 905 region of the GTA (a drop from 61% to 47%) between February and April 1999. With the exception of the 905 region, the Liberals lead in every part of the province - especially in Toronto where they have a commanding lead of 52% versus 26% PC and 16% NDP.

Majority (52%) Say It's Time for Another Party

Up four points since February 1999, the majority (52%) of Ontarians believe the Harris government has done all it can do and it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province. However, more than four in ten (43%) would argue that the Harris government has accomplished a lot of good in the province - they have stayed true to their word and deserve to be re-elected.

Healthcare (60%) is Still Number One Issue Despite 13 Point Drop - How Does the Provincial Government Fare?

Despite a 13-point drop since February's poll, healthcare (60%) continues to be the number one issue facing the province in the minds of Ontarians. Indeed, 44% of Ontarians approve of the government's performance in this area compared to 40% of Ontarians who said they approved in February of this year. Forty percent disapprove of the government's performance in this area.

Performance ratings for managing education (47%), the second most important issue mentioned by Ontarians, are much the same with more than four in ten (45%) who approve with 38% disapproving.

Three Quarters (76%) Say Pace of Change Too Fast - Up 9 Points Since February

Three quarters (76%) of Ontarians believe the changes the provincial government has made in the past few years show that the government has acted too quickly. One third (34%) feel the PC government has moved much too quickly, while 43% say it has acted somewhat too quickly. Only 18% of Ontarians suggest the PCs have moved too slowly.

Majority Approve (56%) of PC Government and Say it is on Right Track (59%)

In spite of lower levels of voter support, the PC government maintains high levels of overall approval. The majority (56%) of Ontarians approve of the overall performance of the provincial Progressive Conservative government (down only four points since February 1999). Further, the majority (59%) of Ontarians believe the Ontario government has the province on the right track - 23% say strongly right track, 36% say somewhat right track.

Majority (52%) Approve Performance of Premier Harris - Half (50%) Approve of Performance of Liberal Leader McGuinty, 37% Approve of NDP Hampton's Performance

When Ontarians provide their opinion on the provincial leaders, the majority (52%) approves of Mike Harris' performance as Premier. Half (50%) also approve of Dalton McGuinty's performance as leader of the provincial Liberal party. In the case of Mike Harris, 47% disapprove while only 2% are unable to provide an opinion. However, Dalton McGuinty is "unknown" to 25% of Ontarians with only 25% disapproving of his performance. Four in ten (37%) Ontarians approve of Howard Hampton's performance as leader of the provincial New Democrats. Another 26% disapprove while the remaining 37% were unable to offer an opinion of Hampton's performance.

Mike Harris - Party Leader that would make the Best Premier (42%)

When Ontarians were asked to disregard which party they will vote for and are asked, which of the three party leaders would make the best Premier of Ontario, four in ten (42%) say Mike Harris would be the best Premier for Ontario followed by Dalton McGuinty (22%) and Howard Hampton (12%).

An "Issues" Election? - 57% Say They Will Vote Based on a Party's Stand on the Issues

Ontarians were asked whether the parties' stand on the issues, the ability of the party leaders or the qualities of the individual candidates in the constituencies would be the most important in deciding which party to support in an election. Nearly six in ten (57%) of Ontarians say that the parties' stand on the issues will be the most important consideration. Nearly one quarter (23%) will focus on the ability of the party leaders while 18% say the individual candidate in their constituency will be the deciding factor in their voting behaviour.

Six in ten (61%) Ontarians Prefer Majority Government

Of those who say they understand the difference between a majority and a minority government (88% of Ontarians), six in ten (61%) say a majority government would be better for Ontario. One third (34%) of Ontarians think a minority government would be better, while 5% were unable to decide.

Second Choice Vote

Knowing how Ontarians might vote if they were for some reason unable to support the party they intend to vote for indicates which direction votes can be swayed. For those who intend to vote Liberal, 25% would vote PC as a second choice (12% of decided voter base). A further 41% of Liberal voters (19% of all decided voters) would vote NDP. For those who intend to vote PC in the next election, 56% (19% of all decided voters) say the Liberal party is their second choice while only 5% would move to the NDP. Half (52%) of those who intend to vote NDP would choose the Liberal party as their second choice with 9% who would move to the PC party.

For further information, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900