Tory Attack Ads on Trudeau Have Little Impact on Voters--Except to Move Soft NDP Voters to Liberals
Four in ten (39%) Canadians have personally seen the ads on television and among those who have, three quarters (74%) were correctly able to identify the Conservative Party of Canada as the sponsor of the ads. However, this strong recall and association doesn't appear to be doing the Tories any favours.
Among Canadians who have seen the advertisements, the Liberals have a nine-point lead of intended voters over the Tories (41% Liberals vs. 32% Conservatives), while the NDP trail (21%).
Among those who haven't seen the ads, vote support among the three major national parties is much tighter (31% Liberals vs. 31% Conservatives vs. 27% NDP). While the intent of the ads are no doubt to increase Conservative support at the expense of Liberal support, what appears to be happening is that Liberal support is being bolstered by voters switching from the NDP as a result of the ads, particularly in Quebec.
At the end of the day, among Canadians who have seen the ads on TV, 38% are more likely to vote for the Liberals because of the ads, compared to 13% who are more likely to vote for the Tories as a result (advantage +25 to the Liberals).
Both of these numbers compare to national decided voters where the Trudeau led Liberal support has climbed to 35% (+3) at the expense of the Mulcair-led NDP (25%, -2) with the Harper Conservatives, despite all of their advertising effort, basically stagnant at 32% (+1).
Ipsos tested the Conservative attack ads against Justin Trudeau using Ipsos ASI's advertising-testing methodology. The performance and impact of the ads can be compared against Ipsos ASI's advertising norms to determine whether the ads are effective or not.
Overall, just two in ten (18%) Canadians `liked' (7% very much) the ad - well below the standard norm for likability - while six in ten (59%) `disliked' (43% very much) it and 23% were neutral. Even among current Conservative supporters, opinions of the ads were mixed (37% liked vs. 36% disliked). The ads may be inadvertently rallying NDP supporters around Justin Trudeau: three quarters (73%) of NDP supporters disliked the ads (56% very much) with some former NDP supporters already moving to the Liberal Party and one in five (21%) current NDP supporters indicating the ads make them more likely to vote Liberal as a result.
Moreover, 8% of Tory supporters say they're more likely to vote for the Liberals as a result of the ads, while just 8% of Liberal supporters say they're less likely to vote Liberal after seeing the ad - likely making the vote-switching impact between the Grits and the Tories a wash.
After seeing the ads, three in five (56%) Canadians could not name anything that they liked about the Conservative attack ads, and among those that could, the leading responses was that the ads were humorous and funny (6%), were truthful (6%), informative (4%) or that they showed Trudeau's inexperience (3%).
Conversely, just two in ten (20%) couldn't name something they disliked about the ads, while most could. Top mentions of dislikes included that they were an attack ad (20%), that they disliked the whole thing (13%), that they were underhanded or tasteless (12%), pointless (7%), that they were just propaganda (6%) or not credible (6%).
Testing the ads using ASI metrics and against ASI norms, the data reveal the following results, each of which tests significantly poorer than standard norms for feelings that an effective ad should evoke. Among Canadians who have seen the ads and know that the Tories were the sponsor:
- One in ten (12%) strongly agree the ads are unique and different
- One in ten (10%) strongly agree they are enjoyable to watch
- One in three (35%) strongly agree they are difficult to believe
- One in ten (9%) strongly agree that the ads are very informative
- One in ten (9%) strongly agree that the ads told them something new
In addition to these standard metrics, Ipsos tested some ad-hoc metrics appropriate to this kind of political ad among those who have seen the ads and linked them to the Tories as the sponsor:
- One in ten (10%) strongly agree that the ads are credible
- One in ten (9%) strongly agree the ads improve their perception of Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party
- Two in ten (21%) strongly agree the ads improve their perception of Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party
Before being asked about the ad, the standard vote intention questions were asked of respondents and revealed that if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 35% of the vote among decided voters (up 3 points), while the Conservatives under Prime Minister Stephen Harper would receive 32% (up 1 point). Liberal gains continue to come at the expense of Thomas Mulcair and the NDP, who would receive 25% of the vote (down 2 points). The Bloc would receive 5% nationally (23% in Quebec), while the Green Party would garner 3% of the vote.
The change in the overall national figures is largely being driven by the continuation of the Liberal resurgence in Quebec, where the party is now firmly in first place with 38% of the decided vote. Conversely, the NDP slide has worsened to the point where they are now in a battle for second place with the Bloc (25% NDP vs. 23% Bloc). The Tories (12%) and Green Party (2%) remain well back. It appears that the weak performance of the Tory ads in Quebec, where only 16% of people said they liked the ads, appears to be rallying soft NDP supporters to the Liberal ranks, and is not doing much to change Conservative fortunes in the province.
The Tories and Grits are in a tight race for support in both seat-rich Ontario (37% Conservatives vs. 35% Liberals) and British Columbia (36% Liberals vs. 32% Conservatives).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between April 26th and April 30th, 2013, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. For this survey, a sample of 1,059 Canadians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the samples composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.4 percentage points had all Canadians adults been surveyed. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
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About Ipsos
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.
With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.
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