Tory Troubles Not Contained to By-Election Ridings as
Liberals Jump out to 6-Point National Lead

Toronto, ON - If the results of the recent federal by-elections have caused some concern among Tory ranks due to their party's lacklustre performance, the results of a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CTV News from November 25 to 27 won't be much consolation.

According to the poll, the anti-Conservative vote appears to be consolidating around the Liberals, as the Grits strengthen amid a Tory and NDP softening. Moreover, the Liberals have a considerable lead in all three key battleground provinces, and their voters appear to be the most motivated to get out and cast their ballot. The Senate scandal is clearly causing a problem for the Tories as they can't seem to escape the steady slow drip of bad news which obscures any other message they try to deliver.

If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 35% of the vote among decided voters, up 4 points since the end of October. Conversely, the Tories under Prime Minister Harper have declined by 1 point and would receive 29% of the vote, which marks the low-point in public support for the government since being re-elected in 2011. What was a three-way race just a month ago is now a favourable Liberal lead, as NDP support has softened by 5 points and now rests at 26% of the popular vote, suggesting that the soft NDP vote is starting to rally behind Justin Trudeau and the Grits.

The Bloc Quebecois, led by Daniel Paillй, would receive 6% nationally (27% in Quebec), while Elizabeth May and her Green Party would garner 3% of the vote. Fifteen (15%) percent of Canadians remain undecided.

Liberal voters appear the most motivated to get out to the polls - suggesting that voters who are most determined to change the government are consolidating behind the Liberals. Examining the results among the 52% of Canadians who say that "nothing short of an emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote", the Liberal vote rises to 37% (up 2 points), while Tory support remains at 29% (no change), and the NDP vote continues to soften to 24% (down 2 points). The Bloc also soften to 6% (down 1 point), while the Green strengthen to 4% (up 1 point).

While the national trend is certainly interesting, the most troubling sign for the Conservatives is that the Liberals now lead in the three places where it counts most in terms of seats: Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

• In Ontario, the Liberals (37%) have a seven-point lead over the Conservatives (30%) and NDP (29%).
• In Quebec, the Liberals (33%) have the edge over the Bloc (27%) and the NDP (27%), while the Conservatives (12%) struggle to maintain a foothold.
• In British Columbia, the Liberals (37%) also have a seven-point lead over the NDP (30%) and the Conservatives (28%).

With the election still being two years away, the Conservatives have time on their side. But, their own decline coupled with the NDP's shrinkage makes this the most disadvantageous opinion environment for the Conservatives since just prior to the failed coalition of 2008.

(Click to enlarge image)

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between November 25 to 27, on behalf of CTV News. For this survey, a sample of 1,014 Canadian adult from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points had all Canadians adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,789 billion (2.300 billion USD) in 2012.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.