Tory's Gambit Fails: Grits Headed For Majority Government

Toronto, ON - It appears that Progressive Conservative leader John Tory's change of heart on the faith-based school funding issue this past Monday has not changed the minds of Ontarians. Mr. Tory announced that any vote on the controversial matter would be preceded by broad consultation and then follow with a `free vote' in the Legislature.

The results of a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted over the three days following Mr. Tory's announcement conducted exclusively on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television reveal that, with only days to go in the campaign, the McGuinty Liberals lead by 11 points over their closest rivals with 43% of support among decided voters. The Liberals maintain a strong lead over the Progressive Conservatives who are at 32% support (a decrease of one point) followed by Howard Hampton's NDP, up just one point since last week to 18%, while the Green Party holds steady at 6% support. Just 4% of Ontarians remain undecided.

With only a few days remaining for voters to switch their intentions, it is likely that the Liberals under Dalton McGuinty will form another majority government at Queen's Park.

As Ipsos Reid's polling took place after John Tory's gambit of this past Monday, it appears that few individuals were swayed by Tory's announcement, and that voters are relatively locked in to their choices. The only issue likely to impact the outcome between now and election night is turnout.

With 107 seats in the Legislature, the seat model done exclusively by DemocraticSPACE for Ipsos Reid is currently projecting a Liberal majority, with the Liberals winning 64 seats (54 needed for a majority) if the polling numbers were an actual vote percentage on Election Day, October 10, 2007. Using an aggregate of five recently publicly released polls, including today's result, the model shows the McGuinty Liberals with a potential majority government with 64 seats (53 solid and 11 leaning), Tory's Progressive Conservatives with 31 seats (21 solid and 10 leaning) and Hampton's NDP with 12 seats (9 solid and 3 leaning).

For complete details, please visit http://democraticSPACE.com/ontario2007

For the first time since the election got underway, the seat model shows Mr. Tory losing in his riding of Don Valley West to incumbent Liberal Education Minister Kathleen Wynne.

As if mirroring the vote, 44% (up from 41% at the beginning of the campaign) believe that the `McGuinty government has done a good job and deserves re-election' compared with one half (51%) of Ontarians who more closely associate with the sentiment that it is `time for another provincial party to take over'. Just 5% of Ontarians do not know with which statement they more closely identify.

The polling also reveals that John Tory's policy on extended funding to the provinces faith-based schools continues to be widely unpopular. More specifically, seven in ten (69%) Ontarians are `strongly' (53%) or `somewhat opposed' (16%) while just three in ten (30%) Ontarians claim to `strongly' (12%) or `somewhat support' (17%) this policy.

Further, when asked to choose between three possible funding options just 16% of Ontarians would adopt John Tory's stance, whereas a majority (55%) of Ontarians opt for `merging the two current systems into one, which would mean a single public school system. Only one quarter of Ontarians (26%) believe that the best option for school funding in Ontario right now is to `keep everything as it is and continue funding Catholic schools but not to other faith-based schools.'

The results of an Ipsos Reid companion poll conducted among a representative sample of 4,241 of Ontarians immediately following Mr. Tory's announcement reveals a public that appears very cynical to his potential motivations for his change in stance.

When presented with two characterizations of Mr. Tory's announcement of this past Monday, just four in ten (39%) Ontarians more closely associate with the sentiment that his change in approach was `an example of a political leader being responsive to the wishes and preferences of Ontarians', as he has contended, compared with six in ten (61%) Ontarians who believe it was a `political flip-flop in order to get more votes'.

And if the gambit was meant to kick-start Mr. Tory's beleaguared campaign, it certainly didn't do so on the personal front: just two in ten (20%) Ontarians say that their impression of John Tory has `improved' as a result of his announcement last Monday. This compares with nearly just under half (45%) who indicate that their impression has `stayed the same' as a result of this announcement,, and more than two thirds (36%) of Ontarians who say that their impression of John Tory has `worsened' as a result.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from October 2 to October 4, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.

psos Reid's companion poll was conducted on October 3rd, when a sample of 4241 adult was surveyed online via Ipsos' I-Say Panel. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1771.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.

In Vote-rich GTA...

In the Greater Toronto Area, Liberal support has dipped by four points to 43% support, while support for the Tories has recovered slightly (two points) to 34% support. Both The NDP and Green Party have gained one point and now sit at 17% support and 6% support of decided voters in the GTA, respectively.

• Examining the 416 area code (Toronto proper) shows that that the Liberals still have a commanding lead over the Tories, with the Liberals receiving the support of 43% of Torontonians (down seven points since last week) and the Tories receiving support from 26% of Torontonians (up one point since last week). The NDP continues their climb to 25% support (up three points since last week), while the Green party has recovered some of its previous losses, and now sits at 5% support (up two points since last week).
• In the 905 the race between the two front runners is quite tight: the Tories have gained slightly to 42% support (up two points since last week), while the Grits have held steady at 43% support (the same as last week). Support for the NDP has also not moved, holding steady at 10% support, while the Green party has declined by one point since last week and now stands at 5% support.

Outside of the GTA...

• Outside of the GTA the Liberal lead (44%) over the Conservatives (31%) has risen by six points since last week. The NDP have the support of 19% of Ontarians outside of the GTA (an increase of one point) while the Green Party has the support of 6% of Ontarians (a decline of two points).
• In Central Ontario the Liberals (45%) are ahead of the Progressive Conservatives (33%) by twelve points. This represents a decline of three points for the PCs, while the Liberals have gained five points. The NDP are at 14% support (no change), and the Greens are at 7% support (an decrease of three points).
• In Eastern Ontario the Tories have pulled ahead of the Liberals, gaining three points (39% support), while the Liberals have slipped five points (37% support). The NDP have gained three points at 17% support, and the Green party has dropped one point and now sits at 6% support.
• In South-western Ontario the Tories have dropped 16 points to 28% support, while the Grits have surged 14 points to 48% support. The NDP have dropped one point to 18% support, while the Green Party has the support of 6% of south-western Ontarians, an increase of two points.
• In Northern Ontario the Tories have rebounded slightly (eight points) to 14% support, but are still far behind the Liberals at 42% support (a decline of five points). The NDP are at 39% support (no change), while the Green Party is at 5% support (an decline of three points).

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

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