UCP Knocking on Door of Second Majority Win

May 28, 2023 – A new Global/Ipsos poll conducted using a dual online and phone methodology shows the United Conservative Party (UCP) as favourites to win their second consecutive majority government in Alberta. Danielle Smith and the UCP lead Rachel Notley and the NDP by 5-points on the eve of election day. A UCP victory, however, is not a sure thing, as differential voter turnout can shift the result. The two parties are also tied in Calgary, which is home to most of the competitive seats in the province.

The Horserace

Danielle Smith and the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) finish the campaign with a 5-point lead over Rachel Notley and the New Democrats. Currently, 51% of decided and leaning voters say they would be most likely to support the UCP, compared to 46% for the NDP. Only three percent say they would support other parties. These results exclude the 14% of Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.

Regions: The race is tied in Calgary with both parties at 49% support. The NDP is up by 17-points in Edmonton (57% NDP vs. 40% UCP), while the UCP dominates with a 34-point lead in the rest of Alberta (65% UCP vs. 31% NDP).

Age Gap: The UCP leads by a 17-point margin among older voters (57% UCP vs. 40% NDP among 55+ years). The NDP leads by 9-points among younger voters (53% NDP vs. 44% UCP among 18-34 years), while the two parties are effectively tied among those 35-54 years (50% UCP vs. 47% NDP).

Gender Gap: The gender gap has shrunk as the campaign draws to a close. The UCP leads by 8-points among men (53% UCP vs. 45% NDP) and the two parties are in a statistical tie among women (UCP 49% vs. NDP 47%).

Voter Certainty

UCP and NDP voters are equally certain of their vote choice. An identical 70% of UCP and NDP voters say they are ‘absolutely certain’ about their party choice in this election.

Best Premier

Alberta’s choice as best premier is split similar to vote, with Danielle Smith 5-points up on Rachel Notley. Currently, 43% of Albertans choose Danielle Smith and 38% choose Rachel Notley as best premier. Nearly two-in-ten (18%) Albertans are undecided as to which party leader would make the best premier.

Time for Change

Albertans are split on whether it is time for change. Nearly half (46%) say it is time for another political party to take over and run the province, while almost as many (42%) say the UCP government under Premier Danielle Smith has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected. Twelve percent are undecided.

These numbers have moved in favour of the UCP since the start of the campaign when 50% felt it was time for change and 34% felt the UCP deserved re-election.

Expected Outcome

There is still no public consensus as to who is going to win this election, although UCP voters are more confident in their own party. Nearly half (48%, up 7 points from mid campaign) of Albertans expect a UCP win, including 83% of UCP supporters. Three-in-ten (29%, down 2 points) Albertans expect an NDP win, including 62% of NDP voters. Nearly one-quarter (23%, down 4 points) have no opinion on who will win.

About the Study

These are the findings of a Global/Ipsos poll conducted between May 24 and 27, 2023. For this survey, a sample of 1,300 Alberta eligible voters was interviewed, including 800 online and 500 through CATI phone surveys (mix of cell and landlines). These data have been weighted by age, gender, region and education to reflect the Alberta population according to Census figures. The precision of Ipsos polls conducted fully or partly online is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall results (1,300 interviews total) are accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. Some questions are based only on the sample of 800 online respondents and are accurate to within ±3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

To complete the CATI phone surveys, a total of 5,355 individuals were asked to participate.

© 2023, Ipsos Limited Partnership

This polling release and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Ipsos. They are NOT designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use the polling release or the data is either granted or implied by their publication. Ipsos does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy of, the result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Ipsos’ written permission will be considered a violation of our intellectual property, and Ipsos reserves the right to take appropriate legal action.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
SVP, Ipsos Public Affairs

+1 778 373 5130
[email protected]

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