Vancouver Municipal Election 2002

Vancouver, BC - A new Ipsos-Reid/Vancouver Sun poll reveals that political newcomer Larry Campbell has established a sizable lead over longtime councillor Jennifer Clarke in the race to become Vancouver's next mayor. Campbell currently has the support of a majority (56%) of decided voters - nearly twice the level of support of Clarke (29%). Valerie MacLean is in third place with the support of 14% of decided voters. Four-in-ten (39%) Vancouver residents express no preference for any mayoralty candidate.

Larry Campbell also leads Jennifer Clarke in terms of top-of-mind awareness of mayoral candidates in the City of Vancouver. Four-in-ten (38%) residents name Campbell as a candidate that comes to mind, compared to three-in-ten (30%) who name Clarke. Only one-in-ten (10%) Vancouver residents have top-of-mind awareness of Valerie MacLean as a candidate for mayor. One-half (50%) of Vancouver residents are unable to name a single candidate for mayor.

Residents across the Lower Mainland and especially in the City of Vancouver appear ready for a change in their City Council. A majority (55%) of Lower Mainland residents say that it's time for a change, compared to one-in-three (32%) residents who say their City Council deserves to be re-elected. The mood for change is much more pronounced in the City of Vancouver where seven-in-ten (72%) residents say it's time for a change versus only two-in-ten (17%) who say that Council deserves to be re-elected.

Meanwhile, Lower Mainland residents outside the City of Vancouver would also select Larry Campbell as mayor if they had a vote in the Vancouver election. Among non-Vancouver residents with a preference, Campbell (43%) leads Clarke (30%) by 13 percentage points and MacLean (25%) by 18 percentage points. Six-in-ten (59%) non-Vancouver residents express no preference for a particular candidate in the Vancouver mayoral race.

"The race isn't over yet, but clearly Jennifer Clarke has a lot of ground to make up" says Kyle Braid, Vice President of Ipsos-Reid in Vancouver. "There appear to be at least two things working against her in this campaign. First, Vancouverites want to see a change in their City Council and she represents the establishment much more than her competitors. Second, it has to be discouraging that despite her nine years of exposure as a City Councillor, she now trails Larry Campbell in awareness among Vancouver voters." Nevertheless Braid cautions Campbell not to celebrate yet, "With the low voter turnout in municipal elections a lot of things can happen. If Clarke's supporters are more motivated than Campbell's, or if Clarke's election-day team is better organized, we could still see a very close result."

These are the findings of a BC Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between October 30th and November 4th, 2002 among a representative cross-section of 500 residents of the Lower Mainland and an oversample of 200 residents of the City of Vancouver. In total, Ipsos-Reid interviewed 331 residents of the City of Vancouver. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual Lower Mainland and City of Vancouver populations according to 2001 Census data. With a Lower Mainland sample of 500, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within 1774.4 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Lower Mainland population been polled. With a City of Vancouver sample of 331, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within 1775.4 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Vancouver population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 257-3200