Volatile Voters Bounce Grits Back Into Majority Territory (40% +5) As Conservatives Stumble (23% -5)

Toronto, ON - According to an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail survey released today, volatile voter support for the Federal Liberal Party has rebounded to 40% (up 5 points from 35% just three weeks ago) opening up a favourable 17 point lead over the second place Conservatives (23%) and bouncing them back into majority government territory for the first time since mid-January.

The polling was conducted during the week former Prime Minister and Progressive Conservative Party Leader Joe Clark called Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper "dangerous" and counselled voters to choose the Liberals in the next election as the "lesser of two evils". An exclusive seat model prepared by Ipsos-Reid for CTV and The Globe and Mail shows that with 155 seats in the House of Commons needed for a Majority Government, the Federal Liberals would take 153-157 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 66-70 Seats, the Bloc Quebecois at 58-62 Seats and the NDP with 19 to 23 seats.

But while support for the Liberals has bounced up, Conservative Party support has dropped 5 points (from 28% three weeks ago) to 23% today. Support for the NDP (18% unchanged), the Bloc Quebecois (46% support in Quebec, up 1 point from 45%), and the Green Party (5%, unchanged) is stable. Meanwhile, 11% of Canadians would not vote, or are undecided, when considering which party they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow.

To put this in perspective, polling conducted exactly three weeks ago showed an seven point difference between the Liberals (35%) and the Conservatives (28%)--today, that gap has widened in favour of the Liberals to 17 points over the Conservatives. Vote pick-up has mainly come from Ontario (+8 points), Atlantic Canada (+6 points) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (+6 points). And despite picking up 3 points in Quebec (33%, up from 30%), the Liberals are still bogged down in the province with the Bloc showing a 13 point lead (46%). Some voters maybe buying Mr. Clark's message and biting their tongues to vote Liberal: while 40% say they would vote Liberal today only 35% say that the "Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin". A majority of Canadians (59%) take the opposite opinion that "the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time that another Federal political party be given a chance to govern the country".

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between April 27th and 28th, 2004. For the telephone survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 946 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Grits Bounce As Conservatives Stumble...

The Federal Liberal Party has bounced back from 35% support in the polls three weeks ago to 40% support today (up 5 points). And as the Liberals have bounced-back, the Conservatives have stumbled to 23% -- down 5 points from 28% since the last sounding. But support for the New Democratic Party at 18% (unchanged), the Bloc Quebecois at 46% in Quebec (up 1 point), and the Green Party at 5% (unchanged), is more stable.

A further 3% of decided voters would vote for some "other party". Among all Canadians, 11% "would not vote/don't know/or refused to say" when considering what party they would most likely support if a federal election were held tomorrow.

• In the past three weeks, the Liberal Party has bounced back the most in Ontario (49%, + 8 points), followed by Atlantic Canada (47%, +6 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (35%, +6 points), Quebec (33%, + 3 points), and have stayed the same in Alberta (31%, unchanged) and British Columbia (30%, unchanged).

• Since the January 13-15th sounding, the Liberals have gained in Atlantic Canada (47%, +4 points), but have dropped in every other region: British Columbia (30%, -12 points), Quebec (33%, -12 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (35%, -11 points), and Ontario (49%, -8 points).

• Since April 6-8th The Conservatives have dropped in every region with the exception of Atlantic Canada (30%, +1 point) and Alberta (46%, unchanged), with the biggest drop coming in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (26%, -10 points), followed by Ontario (25%, -7 points), Quebec (8%, -3 points), and British Columbia (25%, -2 points).

• Comparing back to January 13-15th numbers, the Conservatives have gained ground in Ontario (25%, +7 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (26%, +6 points), Quebec (8%, +5 points), and British Columbia (25%, +5 points), and have lost ground in Alberta (46%, -1 points) and Atlantic Canada (30%, - 6 points).

• From three weeks ago, the New Democratic Party has made gains in Alberta (15%, +3 points), Ontario (20%, +1 point), British Columbia (26%, +1 point), and has lost in Quebec (8%, - 2 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (25%, -2 points), and Atlantic Canada (18%, - 4 points).

• Compared to January 13-15th, the New Democratic Party has made the most gains in Ontario (20%, +3 points), Alberta (15%, +2 points), Quebec (8%, +2 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (25%, +1 point), Atlantic Canada (18%, +1 point), and British Columbia (26%, -1 point).

• Support for the Bloc Quebecois has been stable since April 6-8th coming in at 46% in Quebec (+1 point), but has enjoyed smart gains since January 13-15th (+7 points).

Majority Of Canadians Think Federal Liberals Don't Deserve To Be Re-Elected And That It's Time Another Party Be Given A Chance To Govern The Country...

The majority of Canadians (59%) hold the opinion that "the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time that another Federal political party be given a chance to govern the country". In contrast, one-third (35%) of Canadians hold the opposite opinion that "the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin". The remaining 6% of Canadians "don't know".

Support for the viewpoint that the "the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time another Federal political party be given a chance to govern the country" is highest in Alberta (77%), followed by British Columbia (70%), Quebec (63%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (58%), Atlantic Canada (58%), and Ontario (48%).

Residents of Ontario (46%) are the most likely Canadians to feel "the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin", followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (39%), Atlantic Canada (36%), Quebec (29%), British Columbia (24%), and Alberta (23%).

Please open the attached PDF to view the table, factum and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President & C.O.O.
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900