Voter Opinion Locked In

Toronto, ON - With Parliament on break, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives retain a tenuous lead among Canadian voters, according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest and Global TV.

This week finds Conservative support at 37 percent nationally as compared to 31 percent for the Liberals, and 16 percent for the NDP. Among these three leading national parties, the results are little changed from the 2006 election.

At nine percent nationally, support for the Green Party is as high as has ever been recorded by this poll, and is nearly double the five percent the Greens earned during the 2006 election. However, it remains to be seen whether the Green Party can win a seat and prove that it has an organization underlying its impressive level of national support.

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, have dropped to 24 percent in Quebec (6% nationally), down from 36 percent one week ago - possibly a delayed negative reaction to Gilles Duceppe's flip flop on seeking the leadership of the provincial Parti Quebecois. If an election were held today, the Bloc would likely see their support cut nearly in half from the 42 percent they won in Quebec during the 2006 election. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have benefited from the Bloc's woes, leading the race in Quebec at 28 percent support, eight points ahead of the Liberals (20%). However, voters in the Province of Quebec have proven to be fickle since the last election, so the question is whether or not the drop in support for the Bloc is a blip that will rebound over the next couple of weeks.

Four percent of voters nationwide remain undecided.

Regionally, support for the Conservatives remains high in Alberta (up three points from last week to 66%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (up 11 points to 49%) and British Columbia (up three points to 41%). In Ontario, the Conservatives have climbed three points to 37 percent, narrowing the gap against the Liberals (down one point to 40% in Ontario). In Quebec, the Conservatives are leading at 28 percent (up two points) as the Bloc has declined by 12 points to 24 percent in the province. Conservative support is lowest in Atlantic Canada (down 16 points to 22%).

The Liberals lead the race in both Atlantic Canada (up three points from last week to 44%) and Ontario (down one point to 40%). The Liberals trail the Conservatives in each of the Western regions, with 19 support in Alberta (no change from last week), 34 percent in British Columbia (up one point) and 30 percent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (down three points). The Liberals place third in Quebec (down one point to 20%), lagging behind both the Conservatives (28%) and Bloc (24%).

The NDP enjoy their highest level of support in Atlantic Canada (up five points from last week to 22%) and Quebec (up seven points to 18%). Elsewhere, support for the NDP grew modestly in Ontario (up three points to 15%) and remained unchanged in Alberta (11%). Support for the NDP declined in both British Columbia (down eight points to 15%) and in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (down seven points to 15%).

While placing last in every region, the Green Party shows strongest in Atlantic Canada (up six points from last week to 11%), Quebec (up six points to 10%) and British Columbia (up four points to 10%). Elsewhere, support for the Green Party grew by one point in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (7%), while declining in Ontario (down three points to 8%) and Alberta (down two points to 4%).

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (43%) over the Liberals (27%) by a 16-point margin, while women prefer the Liberals (36%) over the Conservatives (32%) by a four-point margin. The NDP draws higher support among women (17%) than among men (15%), while men tilt towards the Bloc (men, 7%; women, 5%). The Green Party (men, 8%; women, 9%) divides its support more equally between men and women.

By age, Conservatives continue enjoy an advantage among respondents 55 years and older (43%) and those 35 to 54 years of age (39%) as compared to the 18-to-34-year-old cohort (29%). The Liberals enjoy greater support among those 35 to 54 years of age (33%) and those 55 years and older (33%) than among Canadians 18 to 34 years of age (28%). The NDP relies on support from those 18 to 34 years of age (21%) as compared to those 35 to 54 years of age (15%) and those 55 years and older (12%). Green Party support also skews younger, withi 12 percent among those 18 to 34 years of age compared to nine percent among those 35 to 54 years and five percent among those 55 years and older. Likewise the Bloc Quebecois relies more heavily on respondents 18 to 34 years of age (10%) than among those 35 to 54 years of age (4%) or those 55 years and older (6%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from May 22-24, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more Information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
416-324-2900
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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