Voting Intentions in Quebec and Attitudes towards the Two Main Political Leaders in Quebec
Voting Intentions in Quebec
Jean Charest's Liberals still in the lead
If a provincial election were to have taken place between May 24 and June 7, Quebec voters would have cast the following ballot: 48% for the Liberals, 40% for the Parti Quйbйcois and 8% for the l'Action Dйmocratique. (See Table 1)
Those supporting the Charest Liberals are more likely to be female (51%), older (64%), and a plurality of youth (44%). Those supporting the Parti Quйbйcois are more likely to be male (42%), and aged 35 to 54 (48%).
Approval Rating Of Provincial Leaders And Satisfaction With The Provincial Government
Lucien Bouchard and Jean Charest both benefit from similarly high levels of approval
In total, 59% of Quebecers approve of Lucien Bouchard's performance as Premier (a decline of 6% compared to March 1998), while 60% approve of Jean Charest as Liberal leader, and 63% have a favorable impression of Mario Dumont, leader of the Action Democratique. (See Table 2)
As well, 52% of Quebecers are satisfied with the provincial government's performance, 8% lower than the March 1998 figure of 60%, while 47% are dissatisfied with the Bouchard government. (See Table 3)
Strengths And Weaknesses Of The Main Leaders In Different Policy Areas
A plurality (47%) choose Jean Charest over Lucien Bouchard (42%) as the leader that has "the necessary qualities to lead Quebec into the next millennium". (See Table 4).
As well, Jean Charest is viewed as better than Lucien Bouchard in dealing with healthcare, education, job creation, economic growth and fighting poverty.
Alternately, Lucien Bouchard is viewed as better than Jean Charest in dealing with regional development and defending Quebec's interest with the rest of Canada.
Mr. Charest has a lead of 11% over Lucien Bouchard in healthcare management, a lead of 8% on job creation, is 4% ahead with respect to dealing with economic prosperity, has a lead of 6% on the fight against poverty and an edge of 1% in managing the education system. Mr. Bouchard, however, leads Mr. Charest by 11% in defending Quebec's interests in the rest of Canada and a 1% lead in the area of regional development. (See Table 4).
The Referendum Issue
In total, 68% of Quebecers believe that, if re-elected, a PQ government should not hold a referendum on sovereignty, as opposed to 31% who feel a referendum should take place. (See Table 5)
Placed in front of a scenario where Mr. Charest were to become premier, 27% of respondent feel he should "benefit from his win and start constitutional talks", while 71% prefer he "leave the constitutional file alone for a few years". Under the same scenario, and in the event that a constitutional deal was struck with in Canada, 62% of Quebecers believe such a deal should absolutely have to be submitted to popular consultation through a referendum, while 33% believe the deal could be adopted through a vote in the provincial legislature alone. (See Table 6)
A sample of this size is said to yield an optimal margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Christian Bourque
Senior Research Director
Angus Reid Group
(514) 877-5550
