What's Riding on the Ontario Election Leaders Debate:
4 in 10 (38%) Indicate They'll Make up Their Mind How to Vote after Debate, Another 21% Could Switch Current Support

Toronto, ON - A new survey conducted by Ipsos Reid on behalf of CTV News and CP24 reveals that a sizeable portion of Ontarians who hadn't picked a provincial party before the writ was dropped are likely to do so after Tuesday night's Leaders debate.

The data reveal that, in total, four in 10 (38%) Ontarians will make their decision as to who they will support with their vote following the Leaders debate on Tuesday, June 3, 2014 - 13% who say they'll wait until "right after the Leaders debate" to make up their mind, another 14% who "will wait until the last week of the campaign" to make up their mind and a final 11% who indicated they will probably make up their mind "in the voting booth on Election Day".

The research also shows that two thirds (62%) of Ontarians made a choice in terms of who they would vote for before the election began. But that's not carved in stone: while four in 10 (41%) Ontarians say they made up their mind before the election began "and they are not changing it at all" another 21% suggest that while they made up their mind before the election they might change their mind "to another political party to support" by the end of the campaign.

• Nearly half (47%) of women say their vote is still in play between the Leaders debates and the time they step into the voting booth, which is significantly ahead of men (29%)
• NDP (29%) and Liberal (27%) supporters are more likely than Tory backers (22%) to indicate that their ballot box decision could still come during the time between the Leaders debate and the time they cast their ballot, meaning a potential shift in support could be seen depending on the outcome of the debates and the final weeks of the campaign
• While most regions similarly state that they've made up their mind before the Election began and are firm in their choice, residents of the 416 (31%) are most likely to have had a choice in mind before the Election but are willing to shift support elsewhere
• Progressive Conservative supporters (61%) are most likely to have made up their mind before the Election and are not changing their choice at all, far exceeding Liberal (41%) and NDP supporters (41%)
• Liberal (32%) and NDP (28%) supporters are much more likely than PC (18%) voters to say they had made up their mind before the Election but might change their mind, meaning that one sides support could rally to the other in an attempt to block a Hudak PC victory

(Click to enlarge image)

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between May 26 to 29, 2014, on behalf of CTV and CP24. For this survey, a sample of 868 Ontarians, from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-3.8 percentage points had all adults in Ontario been surveyed.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,712,4 million (2 274 M$) in 2013.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.